FAR-FIELD AFTERSHOCK FORECAST FOR XINGIANG/QINGHAI EARTHQUAKE MW 8.1 (PRELIM)
(NOVEMBER 14, 2001)

A strong Mw 8.1 earthquake occurred in the remote borderland of Xingiang
and Qinghai provinces, China in the Kunlun mountains area this morning.

NEIS and GSSR give the event parameters as:

O: 14NOV2001 09:26:14 36.2N 90.6E Ms=7.5 GSSC SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
O: 14NOV2001 09:26:10 36.0N 90.5E Ms=8.1 NEIS SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA

SEISMIC HISTORY OF AREA:

No earthquakes Mw>=7 have ever been recorded within 200 km of today's
epicenter, making this a truly unique event. There have been only
four such events within 500 km, of which today's event is the largest.
These occurred on Oct 20, 1908 (Mw 7.0); May 22, 1927 (Mw 8.0);
July 14, 1973 (Mw 7.5) and November 8, 1997 (Mw 7.7).

Table 1 lists the parameters of earthquake of Mw>=7 within 500 km of
today's NEIC epicenter.

Table 1: Seismicity within 200 km of 36.0N 90.6E (Ms>=7)

MO DA HR MN SC YEAR S LATIT E LONG DEPT MW

8 20 09 53 00 1908 32.000N 89.000E 60 7.0
5 22 00 00 00 1927 36.000N 96.000E 0 8.0
7 14 04 51 21 1973 35.200N 86.500E 32 7.5
11 08 10 02 48 1997 35.122N 87.276E 0 7.7

FORESHADOWS:

It is interesting to note that the swarm of earthquakes in the
region of Bombay Beach yesterday lies at the edge of the S-wave
shadow zone for this event. Coincidence, or could this swarm
have somehow foreshadowed the great Kunlun earthquake?

FAR-FIELD TRIGGERING:

The epicenter is located at 70 degrees from the New Britain Mw 7.0 of
31 October, 2001, slightly outside the 71-73 degree triggering ring.
The area of Nepal had been identified as a region where FFA was
expected. However, the earthquake occurred slightly later than
expected for FFA.
"Seismicity is expected to increase in areas where seismic energy
from the great shocks is concentrated due to internal reflections
and refractions of waves off internal boundaries. Following are the
locations and distances where this is expected to occur. Triggered
activity in these regions appears likely from 31 October through
10 November. Maximum event size for these regions is expected to
increase by 0.8 magnitude units in this period.

71-73 degrees: Nepal"

TIDAL TRIGGERING

No statistical correlation between large events in this area and
lunar cycle is known.

SOLAR/GEOMAGNETICS EFFECTS:

The earthquake may have been immediately triggered by effects from a
C-Class solar flare which maximized at the time of the earthquake.
This was the largest flare recorded today. SEC gives the flare the
following parameters:

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

3730 + 0919 0924 0929 C5.8

The area may also have been strongly affected by the geomagnetic
storm of November 6-7 (AA 101). Strong global events are expected between
4-6 days following such storms. This event occurred 7 days
after the storm.
This report had stated on November 6, 2001 regarding the possibility of a
large event at this time:

" This seismicity will probably be most prominent within
20 degrees longitude of 59W and 121E (anti- and sub-solar at 03:54 UT)
and within 120W and 60E (sub- and anti-solar at 20:00 UT, the start
of the storm sequence). Of course, as usual, high latitudes and areas
near the geomagnetic equator are also susceptible to induced seismicity.
...Strongest seismicity (i.e. events of Mw>6 and in this case probably
AT LEAST ONE EVENT OF Mw>7) is most likely to occur 4-6 days after the
storm commencement in the sub- or anti-solar regions or at high
latitudes. This would place these events around 10-12 November.
Enhanced seismicity in volcanic regions (Volcanos or volcanic arcs and
mid-ocean ridges) should also increase around November 10-12."

The epicenter of this event falls 30 degrees longitude east from the
first sub-solar location, and 30 degrees longitude west from the
second, so the region was sub-solar throughout the major portion of the
geomagnetic storm, making it a good possible area for geomagnetic
triggering.

THE FAR-FIELD AFTERSHOCK FORECAST:

Seismicity is expected to increase in areas where seismic energy
from the great shocks is concentrated due to internal reflections
and refractions of waves off internal boundaries. Following are the
locations and distances where this is expected to occur. Triggered
activity in these regions appears likely from 14 November through
26 November. Maximum event size for these regions is expected to
increase by 1.5 magnitude units in this period.

0-5 degrees: Regional triggering- Up to 5 degrees west of the mainshock
epicenter, Qinghai, Xinjiang, some possibility in So. Tibet/Nepal
9-10 degrees: Hindu Kush/No. Afghanistan/Pakistan, No. Mongolia, Myanmar
Yunnan, China
17-19 degrees: Andaman Isl. NE China, Turkenistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan
34-36 degrees: Luzon, Philippines, No. Ryukyu Isl. SW Japan, Eastern
Turkey, Iraq, Caucasus, E. Gulf of Aden
43-45 degrees: Istanbul area, western Turkey, Romania, Cyprus, Finland, Red Sea,
Ethiopia, So. Sumatera, Celebes, Mindanao, So. Kuril Islands
59-61 degrees: West Irian, Timor Sea, Central Aleutians, Sicily,
No. Italy, France/Swiss borderland, North Sea,
71-73 degrees: Spain, Gibraltar, Tanzania, Malawi, New Britain,
Unimak Isl, Alaska Peninsula
103-107 degrees***: California/Baja border (about 32-34N), Bermuda,
Central Mid-Atlantic, So. of Africa, Tonga/Samoa
142-146 degrees: Ecuador, Galapagos
176-180 degrees: Chile Rise about 36S 90W.

***: The strongest triggering is always expected to be along the
shadow zone boundary between 103-107 degrees from the epicenter.

Lowell Whiteside
November 14, 2001

Historical following quakes after large events in the Kunlun Mts. region:

MAIN AUG 20 1908 32.0N 89.0E 60 7.0

AFTEREVENTS

Aug 23 37N 78W M 3.5 Virginia

MAIN MAY 22 1927 36.0N 96.0E 0 8.0

AFTEREVENTS

May 23 50N 91E M 5.6 Mongolia
May 23 40N 141E Ml 5.4 Hokkaido, Japan
May 23 46N 71W M 3.0 No. of Vermont
May 24 41N 16E M 4.8 So. Italy (extensive swarm)
May 28 37N 123E M 5.0 Central California
Jun 01 40N 74W M 5.0 New York City area
Jun 03 23N 81E M 6.5 NE India
Jun 03 7S 131E M 7.4 Ceram/W. Irian
Jun 05 36N 31E M 6.4 Western Turkey
Jun 10 38N 79W M 3.6 Virginia
Jun 10 1S 130E M 6.5 Ceram/W. Irian
Jun 14 43N 147E M 6.0 Southern Kuriles
Jun 14 50S 140E M 6.5 South of Australia

MAIN JUL 14 1973 35.2N 86.5E 32 7.5

AFTEREVENTS

Jul 14 34N 116W Ml 4.8 So. California
Jul 14 44N 74W Ml 3.4 New York
Jul 15 30N 106W Ml 3.4 Texas
Jul 16 17N 100W M 6.2 Guerrero, Mexico
Jul 19 17S 178W M 5.8 Fiji/Tonga
Jul 20 36N 141E M 5.8 Off E. Coast Honshu
Jul 20 19N 106W M 5.4 Jalisco, Mexico
Jul 21 24S 179W M 6.5 So. of Fiji Isl.
Jul 22 32N 115W M 4.2 Baja California
Jul 31 27S 71W M 6.3 Northern Chile
Jul 31 9S 161E M 6.3 Solomon Islands

MAIN NOV 08 1997 35.1N 87.2E 0 7.7

Note: This event occurred shortly after one of the largest
solar flares of the current active solar period - that flare
occurred on Nov. 6, 1997 (X10+)

AFTEREVENTS

Nov 09 13N 88W Ml 6.5 El Salvador
Nov 09 42N 13E Ml 4.8 Central Italy
Nov 10 00N 17W M 5.6 Central Mid-Atlantic ridge
Nov 10 12N 145E M 5.5 Marianas
Nov 10 31N 140E M 6.2 So. of Honshu
Nov 11 13S 174E M 5.5 Fiji Islands area
Nov 12 36S 105W M 5.6 Southern East Pacific Rise
Nov 13 6S 154E M 5.6 Solomon Islands
Nov 16 51N 173W M 5.2 Andreanoff Islands
Nov 16 4S 103E M 5.3 Southern Sumatera
Nov 18 37N 20E M 6.4 Ionian Sea
Nov 18 29S 177W M 5.8 Kermadec Islands
Nov 19 14S 175W M 5.7 Samoa
Nov 21 22N 92E M 6.1 Bangladesh/No. India
Nov 22 37N 118W M 4.5 Mammoth Lakes, California

Summary of far-field events following Kunlun Mts. mainshocks:

In general, the events of Mb>=5 tend to fall in the areas
described by the listing of far-field events expected above
from distance considerations.

The most likely events of Mw>=6 in the next 10 days appear to be:

Fiji/Tonga/Samoa area
Off East Coast of Honshu, or southern Kuril Islands

The most likely events of M>=5 in the next 10 days on the
basis of history and far-field triggering theory appear to be:

No. India/Bangladesh area
South of Honshu
Central Andreanoff Islands
Westernmost and easternmost Turkey
Solomon Islands/New Britain
Southern Sumatera

Secondary location where event tend to occur but are not
as large or as likely . MB>=4.8 considered likely in next
10 days.

Central Italy
Ionian Sea
Southern East Pacific Rise/Chile Rise

Areas of U.S. and Canada where triggering may occur (Ml>=4.0)

Central Andreanoff Islands
Southern California - esp. in the Calexico to Bombay Beach region

Areas of U.S. and Canada where triggering may occur (Ml>=3 or unusual events)

Eastern New York State
Virginia
Texas