Posted by Lowell on November 13, 2001 at 22:31:57:
Don's Petrolia prediction was completely fulfilled tonight in a Ml 2.8 off the coast of Northern California. NCSN is giving the following parameters to this event: O: 13NOV2001 21:41:06 40.302N 124.519W ML=2.8 NCSN WNW of Punta Gorda, CA On Nov. 7, Don had posted a prediction that there would be a Ml 2.5-4.0 earthquake at 40.3N 125.0W between Nov 9 and Nov 13. This event lies at 39 km from the predicted epicenter, within the magnitude range and distance window. 100% accurate - let's see more of those. Since the beginning of 2001, there have been sixteen 5-day windows in which a successful event occurred within Don's parameters. In the same time there were 64 5-day windows, the probability of success on this one was 0.25 or odds of 1 in 4. You beat the odds again, Don, congratulations. Don's complete forecast (post #10763 below) had stated: Petrolia, California Earthquake Forecast Posted by Don In Hollister on November 07, 2001 at 09:39:38: Magnitude: 2.5-4.0 From: 11/09/2001PDT - To: 11/13/2001PDT Location: Petrolia, California Lat: 40.3N - Long: 125.0W - Range: 40Km Hi All. It sure is a great morning to make a forecast. I didn't have my usual meal of a raw onion and garlic sandwich with a Moosehead Beer chaser. Instead I had ham and eggs with a cup of coffee. Don't know if my system can handle that. Looking for a 2.5 to 4.0 at 40.3N/125.0W. This is about 56 Km west of Petrolia, California. It should occur on 11/11/2001. The window opens on 11/09/2001 and will close on 11/13/2001. The radius is 40Km. Take Care...Don in creepy town
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