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Three possible scenarios for followup activity in BB.
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Posted by Lowell on November 13, 2001 at 13:33:57:
Swarms of this type usually indicate one of two things - both of which might be applicable to the Bombay Beach area: 1) A fault is trying to open up. If this is the case, watch out, a big one could be on the way - usually within several days, but it all depends on how locked the fault is. In this case the last great ruptured occurred in the late 1600's so you would probably have 1-2 or more days to get ready. It is equally possible, however, that the swarm will not succeed in rupturing into a great event. If this is the case, breathe a sigh of relief. Remember that swarms like this have come and gone many times in the past 300 years WITHOUT rupturing the S.A. for a great earthquake. 2) Volcanism (or underground movement of magmas). I think we may be seeing this in the Mammoth Lakes area, and the Bombay Beach area is also near exceptionally hot basement material. Seismicity in the region has a strong tendency to cluster about 4-7 days after strong geomagnetic storms, as did this. This could imply some subterranean heating is the cause. If so, the maximum magnitude would reach only about Ml 4 and gradually decline to background levels. No way to know right now which scenario is correct, however, these earthquakes are occurring along the S.A. fault, so there is a tendency to think that the fault is trying to move, perhaps in reaction to the Ml 6.3 in the Gulf of California last night. Take some advice from Don, settle back, put your feet up and see what develops.
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