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Posted by Lowell on November 12, 2001 at 13:30:29:
Don squeaked out on his latest Mammoth Lakes prediction. NCSN
is reporting the following event in that region this afternoon: O: 12NOV2001 20:44:44 37.5N 118.8W ML=2.4 NCSN SW of Toms Place, CA Source:
http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Quakes/quakes0.html Don had expected an event of Ml 2.5-3.5 within 40 km of
37.5N 118.9W between Nov. 8 and Nov. 12 with maximum
likelihood on Nov. 10. I give credit when the magnitude
is 0.1 units outside the given magnitude range because that
is the standard error on determined magnitudes.
The prediction is therefore correct in all details for this
event.
The last event in the Mammoth Lakes region with Ml>=2.4
was a Ml 2.63 on October 28, two weeks ago. Given the swarm
of events in the area yesterday and this event today, I think
we can say "Another good pick, Don". Keep up the good work. Don's Corrected prediction (Post # 10794 below) had read: Mammoth Lakes Area Earthquake Forecast Correction
Mammoth Lakes Area Earthquake Forecast Correction
Posted by Don In Hollister on November 09, 2001 at 01:31:14: Magnitude: 2.5-3.5Ml
From: 11/08/2001 - To: 11/12/2001
Location: Mammoth Lakes, California Area
Lat: 37.6N - Long: 118.9W - Range: 40Km
Looking for a 2.5 to 3.5 at 37.5N/118.9W. This is about 16Km WSW
of Toms Place. It should occur on 11/10/2001. The window opens on
11/08/2001 and will close on 11/12/2001. The radius is 40Km.
Take Care...Don in creepy town
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