UNPRECEDENTED DAY OF STRONG ACTIVITY IN NW U.S./B.C. CANADA FOLLOWS GEOMAGNETIC
STORM

SUMMARY

In the 24 hours between 18:00 UT on 10 November and 18:00 UT on
11 November three non-aftershock events of Mb>=4 have occurred in the Pacific
northwest U.S./Vancouver Island region, B.C. This appears to be the first
time in the recorded seismicity of the northwest U.S./B.C that three events
of Mb>=4 have occurred in three separate areas (within the confines of
50N-41N, 130W to 116W) within 24 hours. The only other case which
might compare occurred on October 1, 1964, but these three events were
all located off the coast and epicenters were subject to considerable
error.
Yesterday's events occurred as a Mb 4.0 off the coast of Northern
California and as a Ml 3.4 near the NW Washington/British Colombia
border. This was followed by earthquakes last night and today of
Ml 4.2 in the region south of Vancouver Island and by a Ml 4.0
and aftershocks of Ml 3.0, 3.0 and 3.3 in the region N of Spokane, WA and
a Ml 2.3 near Hyak WA yesterday.
While none of these events represent a new seismic area, they all
are the first sizable quakes in several months in areas which have been
active in the past 5 months.
The Ml 4.0 North of Spokane, WA is the largest event in that region
in the current series which began with a Ml 3.9-4.1 on June 25, 2001. The
only other event within 50 km of Spokane of Ml>=4 ever recorded was a
Ml 4.3 on March 12, 1918.
The event off the coast of Northern California of Ml 4.0 is the largest
recorded within 50 km of that epicenter since June 2, 1998 (Ml 4.5).
Twenty earthquakes of Mb>=4 have been recorded in this 50 km radius
since 1900, about one every 5 years.
The earthquake south of Vancouver (Mb 4.2) is the largest in that
region since the larger aftershocks of the Mw 6.0 on September 14 ended
on September 18 with a Mw 5.1 event.

The epicentral information for this unprecedented seismic swarm
in this region are:

O: 10Nov2001 18:55:32 41.2N 126.4W MB=4.0 NEIS OFF COAST OF N CALIFORNIA
O: 10Nov2001 20:20:07 49.2N 128.7W MB=4.2 NEIS VANCOUVER ISL, CANADA REG
O: 11Nov2001 16:00:30 47.7N 117.4W MB=4.0 NEIS WASHINGTON

This report had suggested to watch for larger events between
November 10-12 in this area. All three events lie at high latitudes
within 20 degrees of 120W which was the sub-solar longitude at
the geomagnetic storm commencement, both of which are considered
factors favorable for regional seismicity enhancement. The report
of November 6 had stated:

"STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM ENTERS SECOND DAY-STRONG SEISMICITY EXPECTED NOV 10-12

"The decline of the proton storm normally signals a strong increase
in seismicity. This seismicity will probably be most prominent within
20 degrees longitude of 59W and 121E (anti- and sub-solar at 03:54 UT)
and within 120W and 60E (sub- and anti-solar at 20:00 UT, the start
of the storm sequence). Of course, as usual, high latitudes and areas
near the geomagnetic equator are also susceptible to induced seismicity.
..."

and

"Strongest seismicity (i.e. events of Mw>6 and in this case probably
at least one event of Mw>7) is most likely to occur 4-6 days after the
storm commencement in the sub- or anti-solar regions or at high
latitudes. This would place these events around 10-12 November.
Enhanced seismicity in volcanic regions (Volcanos or volcanic arcs and
mid-ocean ridges) should also increase around November 10-12."

GLOBAL

In other areas of the world there were 3 events of Mb>=5 reported
today. Two of these occurred in the Banda/Timor area with M 5.0 and
5.4 respectively. A third event in this area - in the Ceram Sea
measured Mb 4.4. Other moderate events were recorded south of Honshu
(Mb 5.2+); and in the northern Kuril Islands (Mb 5.6). Because
it is the weekend, however, most events will not be reported until
tomorrow or Tuesday (because of the U.S. holiday on Monday).

U.S./CANADA

The strong increase in seismicity in the northwest U.S./B.C. Canada
area has been reported on in the summary above.
The California/Nevada area, however also showed signs of increased
activity. Two minor swarms occurred today - one in the Mammoth
Lakes region (10 events) and the other in the Geysers region (10 events).
Both are areas where effects from the geomagnetic storm were expected at this
time. The Mammoth Lakes swarm was one of the strongest in that area in the
past 35 days. Similar swarms occurred on Oct 24 (10 events) and
Nov. 4-5 (11 events each day). The Geysers swarm was also the strongest
since Nov 4-6 in that area when 13 and 14 events per day occurred in
that region.
Although there were no events of Ml>=3 recorded in the California/Nevada
region, the large number of different epicenters showing events of
Ml>=1.9 today in the region (15) indicated that whatever had affected
the northwest was also affecting California (average number of regions
showing Ml>=1.9 on a given day is about 7-8 over the past two months).
Regions of California in which events fo Ml>=1.9 occurred since last
report were:
Parkfield (Ml 2.0); Tehachapi (Ml 2.0); the Geysers (Ml 2.6, 2.2, 1.9);
Portola (Ml 1.9); Hollister (Ml 2.5); Chester (Ml 2.5); Glen Ellen (Ml 2.0);
Rawhide NV (Ml 2.0); Qualey's Camp, NV (Ml 2.1); Mammoth Lakes (Ml 19);
Pinnacles (Ml 2.5); El Centro (1.9, 2.5); Clearlake (Ml 1.9); off the
coast of Northern California (Mb 4.0) and the last, but not least
San Ramon (Ml 1.8, 1.9) in Central California.
No reports were available because network personnel do not work on
weekends in the northeast or central U.S., the mountain states or Canada.
One event of Ml 3.1 was reported south of Anchorage, Alaska and one
similar Ml 3.1 was reported from Hawaii.

NEW ZEALAND/AUSTRALIA

IGNS did not report any event parameters today. The on-line seismogram
also remained relatively quiet during the past 24 hours with only a few
minor regional events evident as traces on the seiamogram.
Light events have been observed in Adelaide SA (Ml 2.8); Nelson Bay NSW
(Ml 2.5 and Bonegilla, VIC, (Ml 2.7) in Australia over the past three
days.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field remained at very quiet levels today. There
were no M- or X- class solar flares observed.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011111events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

No tropical storms were located in the Caribbean Sea, North Atlantic,
or east Pacific Oceans today.

Tropical Storm Lingling (downgraded from Typhoon) made landfall
today near the city of qui nhon, Vietnam today. No increase in
seismicity is expected with this landfall as Vietname has little
background seismic activity.

For Public advisory see:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/wp200101.public.html

Tropical Cyclone 04b was located in the Bay of Bengal at about
16N 84E today and headed north south of Calcutta and is weakening
considerably. Seismicity may be associated as atmospheric pressure
over India is reduced with this low pressure system. This could
enhance the potential for seismic events in the Himalayas over the
next two days.

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

November 12 is twenty-seven days after the beginning the lunar month
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

New Britain MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.04
Puerto Rico MB>=4.0 28 3.1 0.01
So. California MB>=3.0 59 2.0 0.05
Hindu Kush MB>=4.0 17 2.4 0.04
Utah MB>=2.0 19 1.9 0.05
Aleutians MB>=4.0 35 2.7 0.03

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No regions

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND/AUSTRALIA

O: 10NOV2001 11:43 36.1S 147.0E Ml=2.4 AGSO Bonegilla, Vic, Australia
Note (AGSO): This earthquake occurred near Bonegilla, about 8 km east of
Wodonga. It has been reported felt in Wodonga.

ASIA

O: 11Nov2001 18:12:46 33.3N 137.4E MB=4.7 NEIS NR S. COAST HONSHU, JAPAN
O: 11NOV2001 18:13 33.2N 137.5E Mj=5.5 NIED FAR_S_OFF_SHIZUOKA_PREF, JAPAN

O: 11NOV2001 18:36:05 8.0S 125.2E MB=5.4 GSSC TIMOR, INDONESIA, REG

O: 11NOV2001 18:12:51 33.5N 137.4E MB=5.2 GSSC NEAR S.CST OF EASTERN HONSHU

O: 11NOV2001 16:09:20 3.1S 125.7E Ms=4.4 GSSC CERAM SEA

O: 11NOV2001 14:09:47 46.6N 152.6E Ms=4.7 GSSA KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA

O: 11NOV2001 07:36:56 52.8N 159.9E Ms=4.3 GSSA OFF E. CST KAMCHATKA

O: 11NOV2001 06:03:23 7.0S 124.5E MB=5.0 GSSC BANDA SEA

O: 11NOV2001 06:03:00 7.1S 125.5E SR=5.0 AEIC1 N DILLI, INDONESIA

O: 10NOV2001 02:35:30 1.0S 120.6E SR=5.2 AEIC1 NW POSO, INDONESIA

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 10NOV2001 16:55:28 16.9N 100.3W ML=3.7 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO , MX

O: 10NOV2001 14:43:35 15.9N 97.9W ML=3.6 SSN COSTA DE OAXACA , MX
O: 10NOV2001 11:35:14 16.0N 98.3W ML=4.1 SSN COSTA GUERRERO-OAXACA , MX

O: 10NOV2001 10:52:38 12.1N 88.1W ML=3.4 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 10NOV2001 18:03:24 11.1N 87.0W MC=3.4 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.
O: 11NOV2001 16:46:20 10.6N 87.0W MC=3.6 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.
O: 10NOV2001 20:40:06 11.6N 85.4W MC=3.4 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

EUROPE/AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST

O: 10NOV2001 18:32:58 35.4N 23.9E ML=4.0 NOA CRETE, GREECE

O: 11NOV2001 05:00:59 28.8N 34.7E MB=4.0 ISR Aragonese, Red Sea

O: 10NOV2001 15:17:34 34.9N 32.3E ML=3.7 KAN GUNEY KIBRIS, CYPRUS
O: 10NOV2001 06:38:15 34.8N 32.4E ML=3.4 KAN GUNEY KIBRIS, CYPRUS
O: 10NOV2001 04:23:48 34.4N 32.4E ML=4.2 KAN GUNEY KIBRIS, CYPRUS
O: 10NOV2001 13:17:37 34.6N 32.4E ML=2.6 ISR Cyprus
O: 10NOV2001 04:38:21 34.7N 32.4E ML=3.0 ISR Cyprus
O: 10NOV2001 02:23:56 34.8N 32.5E ML=4.1 ISR Cyprus

O: 10NOV2001 05:48:39 38.4N 41.6E ML=3.2 KAN SASON (BATMAN),TURKEY

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 10Nov2001 18:55:32 41.2N 126.4W MB=4.0 NEIS OFF COAST OF N CALIFORNIA

O: 12NOV2001 5:35:17 37.8N 121.9W ML=1.9 NCSN ESE of San Ramon, CA
O: 12NOV2001 4:48:45 37.8N 122.0W ML=1.8 NCSN SE of San Ramon, CA

O: 11NOV2001 23:51:27 32.7N 115.6W ML=1.6 SCSN SW of El Centro, CA
O: 11NOV2001 23:53:26 32.8N 115.6W ML=1.9 SCSN WSW of El Centro, CA
O: 12NOV2001 3:35:17 32.8N 115.6W ML=2.5 SCSN W of El Centro, CA
O: 12NOV2001 3:18:14 32.8N 115.6W ML=1.4 SCSN NW of El Centro, CA

O: 12NOV2001 0:19:17 34.0N 118.3W ML=1.5 SCSN E of Baldwin Hills, CA

O: 11NOV2001 6:22:28 35.3N 118.5W ML=2.0 SCSN NNW of Tehachapi, CA
O: 11NOV2001 1:55:51 35.3N 118.7W ML=1.2 SCSN NE of Arvin, CA

O: 11NOV2001 9:41:20 36.0N 120.6W ML=2.0 NCSN NW of Parkfield, CA

O: 11NOV2001 0:18:08 36.9N 121.4W ML=2.5 NCSN WNW of Hollister, CA
O: 11NOV2001 17:11:47 37.0N 121.2W ML=1.4 NCSN NE of Hollister, CA

O: 11NOV2001 21:16:28 37.4N 118.6W ML=1.9 NCSN SSE of Toms Place, CA
O: 11NOV2001 2:53:33 37.4N 118.8W ML=1.6 NCSN SW of Toms Place, CA
O: 12NOV2001 3:44:22 37.5N 118.9W ML=1.4 NCSN SE of Mammoth Lakes, CA
O: 11NOV2001 21:26:14 37.5N 118.9W ML=1.3 NCSN SE of Mammoth Lakes, CA
O: 11NOV2001 19:11:01 37.5N 118.9W ML=1.3 NCSN SE of Mammoth Lakes, CA
O: 11NOV2001 19:26:41 37.5N 118.9W ML=1.3 NCSN SE of Mammoth Lakes, CA
O: 11NOV2001 19:25:25 37.5N 118.9W ML=1.5 NCSN SE of Mammoth Lakes, CA
O: 11NOV2001 21:20:33 37.5N 118.9W ML=1.4 NCSN SE of Mammoth Lakes, CA
O: 11NOV2001 22:16:49 37.6N 118.8W ML=1.3 NCSN WNW of Toms Place, CA
O: 11NOV2001 21:26:53 37.6N 118.8W ML=1.4 NCSN WNW of Toms Place, CA

O: 11NOV2001 19:52:29 38.3N 118.5W ML=2.1 NCSN NE of Qualeys Camp, NV

O: 11NOV2001 11:37:45 38.4N 122.6W ML=2.0 NCSN WNW of Glen Ellen, CA

O: 11NOV2001 21:05:17 38.8N 122.7W ML=1.6 NCSN ESE of The Geysers, CA
O: 11NOV2001 0:50:56 38.8N 122.7W ML=2.0 NCSN ESE of The Geysers, CA
O: 11NOV2001 1:21:20 38.8N 122.7W ML=1.5 NCSN ESE of The Geysers, CA
O: 11NOV2001 18:51:35 38.8N 122.7W ML=1.5 NCSN ESE of The Geysers, CA
O: 11NOV2001 5:28:03 38.8N 122.7W ML=1.9 NCSN E of The Geysers, CA
O: 11NOV2001 13:16:07 38.8N 122.8W ML=1.8 NCSN NNE of The Geysers, CA
O: 12NOV2001 0:26:55 38.8N 122.8W ML=1.4 NCSN ENE of The Geysers, CA
O: 11NOV2001 3:47:20 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.6 NCSN NNE of The Geysers, CA
O: 10NOV2001 23:03:48 38.9N 122.7W ML=1.8 NCSN WSW of Clearlake, CA

O: 11NOV2001 18:23:45 39.1N 118.6W ML=2.0 NCSN WNW of Rawhide, NV

O: 10NOV2001 23:53:21 40.0N 120.5W ML=1.9 NCSN N of Portola, CA

O: 11NOV2001 1:43:57 40.2N 121.3W ML=2.5 NCSN SSW of Chester, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 10Nov2001 20:20:07 49.2N 128.7W MB=4.2 NEIS VANCOUVER ISL, CANADA REG

O: 11Nov2001 17:21:33 47.7N 117.4W MD=3.1 NEIS WASHINGTON
O: 11Nov2001 16:00:30 47.7N 117.4W MD=4.0 NEIS WASHINGTON
O: 12NOV2001 3:03:02 47.7N 117.4W ML=3.3 PNSN N of Spokane, WA
O: 12NOV2001 3:02:59 47.9N 117.2W ML=3.1 PNSN NE of Spokane, WA
O: 11NOV2001 17:21:33 47.7N 117.4W ML=3.1 PNSN NNE of Spokane, WA
O: 11NOV2001 16:00:29 47.7N 117.4W ML=4.0 PNSN ENE of Spokane, WA

O: 10Nov2001 18:30:59 48.9N 123.0W MD=3.4 NEIS VANCOUVER ISL, CANADA REG
O: 10NOV2001 18:30:59 48.9N 123.0W ML=3.3 PGC SSE Tsawwassen BC

ALASKA

O: 11Nov2001 07:32:54 59.8N 152.6W ML>3.0 NEIS SOUTHERN ALASKA
O: 11NOV2001 07:32:56 59.8N 152.7W ML=3.1 AEIC WNW of Homer, Alaska
Note: This event was followed by a series of aftershocks with Ml 2-3.

HAWAII

O: 11NOV2001 13:09:40 19.6N 155.7W ML=3.2 HVO E of Kailua-Kona, Hawaii