Don's recent predictions for So. California - so thoughts
Posted by Lowell on November 10, 2001 at 11:34:10:

Two of the largest events in the past several days in California (since the
Burney quake of 11-7 (Ml 3.3)) have occurred as follows:

01/11/09 16:25:37 33.9N 115.6W 5.7 2.3ML WNW of Eagle Mtn., CA
01/11/08 17:47:58 35.8N 117.6W 7.5 2.5ML N of Ridgecrest, CA

Don had made predictions which match both of these events, although
in both cased the calculated magnitude falls slightly short of
the expected magnitude range.

Don's predictions had been:
1) An earthquake within 40 km of 34.1N 116.0W Ml 2.4-3.9 on 11-8
(window was 11-6 to 11-10)
and
2) An earthquake within 40 km of 35.9N 117.9W Ml 2.8-4.3 on 11-8
(window was 11-6 to 11-10)

The first event lies very near 40 km from the predicted epicenter,
is one day off (but within the window) and has Ml 0.1 unit less than
the predicted magnitude range. Because of uncertainties in calculated
magnitude I usually give credit for events which are out of the window
by 0.1 units. Therefore this is a successful prediction - but just
barely - most parameters fall near the limits of the prediction.


The second event lies within the 40 km radius, on the expected
date, but falls short of the magnitude range by 0.3 units.
This was the largest event in the past 6 days in So. California (not
including the California-Mexico border area - Calexico where a minor swarm
has been occurring since the geomagnetic storm, including today's
Ml 3.0). It seems something has happened that has dampened event
sizes in the area below what might have otherwise been expected.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Don's recent predictions for So. California - so thoughts - Don in Hollister  12:16:56 - 11/10/2001  (10818)  (0)