STRONG EARTHQUAKE HITS NEAR COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER (MW~6.0)

SUMMARY

A strong earthquake (Mw approximately 6.0 (preliminary NEIS 5.9),
hit in the Costa Rica/Panama border region this morning (UT). The
area had been near seismic watches which had been posted from
Hurricane Michelle and from the strong geomagnetic storm which began
on November 4, 2001. This earthquake occurred in an area of relatively
low seismicity. There have been only 4 previous quakes of Mb>=5.9 within
100 km of this epicenter. These occurred on:

Jun 18, 1939 Mw 6.5
Mar 11, 1988 Mw 6.0
Apr 22, 1991 Ms 7.6
May 4, 1991 Mw 6.2

It may be considered a delayed aftershock of the Ms 7.6 on April 22, 1991
or a new event unrelated to that.
The events on June 18, 1939; March 11, 1988 and May 4, 1991 had been
preceded by strong geomagnetic storms in each case 4-5 days prior to the
occurrence of the earthquake (June 14, 1939 AA 69); (March 7, 1988 AA 37);
(April 29, 1991 AA 67). Today's earthquake continues that pattern as
it occurs 4 days after the geomagnetic storm of Nov 5-7. This report had
expected large global events to occur between 10-12 November as reported
on November 6:

"Strongest seismicity (i.e. events of Mw>6 and in this case probably
at least one event of Mw>7) is most likely to occur 4-6 days after the
storm commencement in the sub- or anti-solar regions or at high
latitudes. This would place these events around 10-12 November.
Enhanced seismicity in volcanic regions (Volcanos or volcanic arcs and
mid-ocean ridges) should also increase around November 10-12."

and yesterday (November 7):

"The proton storm which has been in progress since November 4 is
nearing completion. It should approach background towards the
end of the day (November 7). The geomagnetic storm which occurred
yesterday is also completed. This may be followed tomorrow by
increased seismicity, with large events likely on November 10-12."

GLOBAL

In addition to the Costa Rica event, global seismograms are showing
several other unlocated (At the time of this report) epicenters of
events in the Mb 5-6 range. Two hours before the Costa Rica earthquake
an event of Mw>5.5 (GSSC gives Ms 5.1) occurred somewhere near the
South Sandwich Islands, an area at high latitudes where geomagnetic
triggering is usually strong.
Seismicity on mid-ocean ridges remained strong and should continue
for at least three more days. Today's mid-ocean ridge events occurred
in the South Indian Ocean (Ms 4.7); in the Southwestern Atlantic (Ms 5.1);
in the Norwegian Sea (Mb 4.9); in the south Mid-Atlantic Ridge (Mb 4.2)
and in the Arctic Ocean north of Severnaya Zemlya (north of Russia) (Mb 4.6).
Several others in the north Atlantic were reported but have not been confirmed
at this time.
In other global activity earthquakes the most active areas were
the Islands south of Asia where earthquakes of Mb 5.1 occurred in
Sulawesi, Indonesia; Mb 4.9 in New Britain and a Mb 4.6 in the
Banda Sea region.

U.S./CANADA

After a strong increase in activity on 6 and 7 November in much of
the western portions of North America, today activity in these regions
returned to relatively quiet conditions. In southern California, the
Anza aftershock zone saw the first aftershock of the Oct 30 (Ml 5.1)
event of Ml>=2 during November (Ml 2.1). No events of Ml>=3 were recorded
in the California-Nevada region, however earthquakes of Ml>=2 did occur
near Lake Isabella (Ml 2.2); Petrolia (Ml 2.1); Joshua Tree (Ml 2.1)
and Ridgecrest (Ml 2.5). The Ml 2.5 Ridgecrest event was the largest
in California since the Ml 3.3 Burney, CA earthquake on Nov. 7.
A Ml 2.9 was listed in the Cedar City area (Utah) as occurring
yesterday. This adds to events of Ml>=3 in the region near Yellowstone
and Jackson Lake and a Ml 2.7 which was recorded in southern Canada
north of Montana today, all of which were the largest in the area
in more than 2 weeks and followed the geomagnetic storm by one or
two days.
Both Alaska and Hawaii saw one event today of Ml>=3. Alaska experienced
a Ml 3.6 south of Anchorage and Hawaii reports a Ml 3.1 in the region
of Kilauea volcano.
In the eastern U.S. and Canada, the only event reported today occurred
near Madisonville, Tennessee on the border with North Carolina. A Ml 1.6
had occurred about 30 km to the east of this epicenter on Nov. 4, the
first in North Carolina since September 28. A microearthquake (Ml -0.6)
was also recorded today in the Charlevoix Seismic zone in southeastern
Canada.
No earthquakes of Ml>=2 were reported from the Pacific Northwest
today.

NEW ZEALAND

NEIS reported two unusual events in the area just south of South
Island with Mb 4.2 and 4.4 as occurring yesterday. These events
were probably not felt and have not been reported by IGNS.
IGNS did report a Ml 3.7 which was probably felt in the Wanganui
region of North Island this afternoon (NZST). The on-line seismogram
shows a series of light regional earthquakes throughout the past
24 hours.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field was at very quiet conditions today. The
proton storm and polar cap absorption were expected to be over
by early November 9 (SEC). With the end of the proton storm, the
electron flux is at relatively high levels. This usually signals
the beginning of high seismicity around the world for about 2-3 days.
The seismicity should concentrate around 20 degrees longitude around
60W as previously described. The Costa Rica quake tonight is very
near the boundary of this area of heightened seismic expectations at 82W).

Three M-class events occurred, although one was very short-lived.
These had the following parameters:

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

2060 + 0659 0704 0706 M9.1
2170 + 1356 1409 1420 M1.4
2210 + 1459 1535 1600 M4.2

The SEC graphic does not show flare #2060 as large as stated here,
so it will probably be reduced in size in the next several days after
further analysis.

The following California Seismic events were associated with
these flares:

2210 15:05 35.9N 120.5W Ml 1.8

The reader may recall the close relation between earthquakes in
the Coalinga swarm and flares on November 6, 2001 which was commented
on in this report on November 6. Parkfield is within 30 km to the SW of
Coalinga.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011108events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

HURRICANE MICHELLE AND THE COSTA RICA (MW 6.0) QUAKE

No tropical storms are currently active in the North Atlantic,
eastern Pacific or Caribbean regions. Hurricane Michelle which hit
Cuba on Monday and Tuesday (4-5 November) has dissipated in the
north Atlantic. A possibly delayed seismic event from Hurricane
Michelle occurred tonight in the Costa-Rica/Panama region. This
earthquake measured Mw 6.0 and is the largest in North or Central
America since September when a Mw 6.1 occurred in Guerrero Mexico.
The seismic forecast from Michelle had stated on November 2:

" After landfall a moderate to strong earthquake is possible in either
the north or northeastern Caribbean subduction zone or in the
Mexican/Central America subduction zone."

and on November 1, this report noted regard Hurricane Michelle:

" Seismicity may increase along the Central America/Mexico subduction
zone with the Pacific ..."

TYPHOON LINGLING

Lingling, upgraded from tropical cyclone to typhoon today,
is currently located south of Manila, Philippines. There were
two earthquakes in the Philippines yesterday. Seismicity is expected
to be elevated for the next two days in the region due to the
passage of Typhoon Lingling. Heavy flooding has taken more than
10 lives.
For a public advisory see:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/wp200101.public.html

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering

for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

November 9 is twenty-four days after the beginning the lunar month
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

China MB>=4.0 21 2.5 0.04
Antarctica MB>=4.0 343 2.8 0.02
India MB>=4.0 58 2.5 0.04
Yellowstone MB>=1.0 31 3.3 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND/AUSTRALIA

O: 07Nov2001 12:54:49 48.8S 164.7E MB=4.4 NEIS OFF W. COAST S. ISL, N.Z.
O: 07Nov2001 12:48:43 48.9S 164.2E MB=4.3 NEIS OFF W. COAST S. ISL, N.Z.

O: 04NOV2001 10:13 32.2S 150.9E ML=2.6 AGSO Muswellbrook, NSW, Australia

O: 7Nov2001 22:43 40.1S 174.8E ML=3.5 IGNS Wanganui, N.Z.
Note: (IGNS) Likely felt at Wanganui

OCEANIA

O: 08Nov2001 02:00:05 72.3N 2.3E MB=4.9 NEIS NORWEGIAN SEA

O: 08Nov2001 03:58:20 54.0S 2.4W MB=4.2 NEIS S MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

O: 08NOV2001 22:58:10 55.4S 14.6W Ms=5.1 GSSA SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC

O: 07Nov2001 22:28:55 85.3N 93.3E MB=4.6 NEIS NORTH OF SEVERNAYA ZEMLYA

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 08Nov2001 08:53:25 5.2S 152.9E MB=4.9 NEIS NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

O: 07Nov2001 08:05:32 11.4S 166.3E MB=4.6 NEIS SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
O: 06Nov2001 17:31:21 11.8S 166.8E MB=4.5 NEIS SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

ASIA

O: 06NOV2001 08:41 35.9N 140.0E Mj=4.0 NIED SOUTHERN_IBARAKI_PREF, JAPAN

O: 08Nov2001 11:38:02 1.6S 120.3E MB=5.1 NEIS SULAWESI, INDONESIA

O: 08Nov2001 06:53:05 6.2S 123.8E MB=4.6 NEIS BANDA SEA

O: 06Nov2001 22:30:05 27.4N 142.0E MB=4.9 NEIS BONIN ISL, JAPAN REGION

O: 07Nov2001 14:49:36 24.4N 142.1E MB>4.0 NEIS VOLCANO ISL, JAPAN REGION

O: 07NOV2001 06:22:10 1.7N 98.3E SR=5.2 AEIC1 SW TARUTUNG, INDONESIA
O: 07NOV2001 05:18:40 2.4N 98.6E SR=5.4 AEIC1 N TARUTUNG, INDONESIA

O: 07NOV2001 01:02:00 9.5S 115.8E SR=5.5 AEIC1 S NUSAPENIDA, INDONESIA

O: 07NOV2001 05:51:20 10.2S 113.5E SR=4.9 AEIC1 SW NEGARA, INDONESIA
O: 06NOV2001 14:36:30 8.0S 113.5E SR=5.0 AEIC1 NE LUMAJANG, INDONESIA
O: 06NOV2001 12:33:40 10.7S 113.8E SR=4.8 AEIC1 SW DENPASAR, INDONESIA

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 09Nov2001 00:47:58 9.6N 82.2W MW=5.9 NEIS PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER

O: 08NOV2001 14:28:38 11.2N 86.1W MC=3.5 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.
O: 08NOV2001 18:04:42 11.3N 86.7W MC=3.4 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

EUROPE/AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST

O: 07NOV2001 04:05:06 27.9N 34.6E ML=3.9 ISR Arnona Dakar, Red Sea

O: 08NOV2001 09:30:08 38.6N 43.2E ML=3.7 KAN VAN, TURKEY

O: 07NOV2001 19:59:20 35.7N 27.7E ML=3.8 NOA GREECE

O: 09NOV2001 04:20:29 44.0N 10.9E Ml=3.6 SED NORTHERN ITALY

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 08NOV2001 15:05:58 35.9N 120.5W ML=1.8 SCSN NW of Parkfield, CA

O: 06NOV2001 20:40:29 33.4N 118.8W ML=2.6 SCSN E of Santa Barbara Is. , CA

O: 06NOV2001 21:50:56 34.9N 119.0W MC=2.3 SCSN WSW of Grapevine, CA

O: 07NOV2001 02:08:38 32.8N 116.0W ML=2.6 SCSN NNW of Ocotillo, CA

O: 07NOV2001 02:38:47 32.3N 115.3W MC=2.3 SCSN SSE of Calexico, CA
O: 07NOV2001 02:55:33 32.2N 115.3W MC=2.7 SCSN SSE of Calexico, CA
O: 07NOV2001 05:43:56 32.2N 115.3W MC=2.1 SCSN SSE of Calexico, CA

O: 08NOV2001 09:24:27 35.4N 118.3W MH=2.3 SCSN SE of Lake Isabella, CA

O: 08NOV2001 14:43:43 33.4N 116.4W ML=2.1 SCSN ESE of Anza, CA

O: 07NOV2001 08:45:40 34.1N 116.4W ML=2.1 SCSN N of Yucca Valley, CA
O: 08NOV2001 15:49:14 34.0N 116.3W ML=2.0 SCSN S of Joshua Tree, CA

O: 08NOV2001 17:47:58 35.8N 117.6W ML=2.5 SCSN N of Ridgecrest, CA
O: 08NOV2001 14:17:31 35.9N 117.6W ML=1.0 SCSN NW of Trona, CA

O: 08NOV2001 19:56:03 33.0N 117.7W MC=2.3 SCSN WSW of Oceanside, CA

O: 08NOV2001 11:50:51 40.4N 124.1W Md=2.1 NCSN NE of Petrolia, CA

O: 08NOV2001 8:19:00 33.5N 118.1W ML=1.6 SCSN SW of Newport Beach, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 07NOV2001 22:30:02 48.1N 121.9W ML=1.7 PNSN E of Granite Falls, WA

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 08NOV2001 03:40:51 47.2N 113.1W MD=1.1 MBMG MONTANA

O: 07NOV2001 23:02:56 49.3N 114.7W MD=2.7 MBMG SOUTHERN CANADA

O: 6NOV2001 0:16:29 37.1N 113.4W ML=2.9 UUSN SW of Hurricane, UT
O: 08NOV2001 10:49:39 37.4N 113.1W ML=2.2 UUSN S of Cedar City, UT

O: 06NOV2001 20:04:24 40.6N 112.8W ML=1.3 UUSN W of Grantsville, UT
O: 7NOV2001 2:33:05 41.5N 111.7W ML=1.2 UUSN SE of Paradise, UT
O: 06NOV2001 11:49:28 41.8N 111.6W ML=1.2 UUSN E of Smithfield, UT
O: 6NOV2001 1:24:25 42.0N 111.9W ML=2.0 UUSN WNW of Lewiston, UT
O: 06NOV2001 8:35:35 42.0N 111.9W ML=1.9 UUSN WNW of Lewiston, UT

O: 05NOV2001 23:51:56 44.4N 110.7W ML=1.8 UUSN W of West Thumb, WY
O: 6NOV2001 3:06:56 44.6N 110.7W ML=2.3 UUSN SE of Madison Junc., WY
O: 6NOV2001 3:48:01 44.6N 110.7W ML=2.1 UUSN ESE of Madison Junc., WY
O: 6NOV2001 3:09:55 44.6N 110.7W ML=2.2 UUSN ESE of Madison Junc., WY
O: 6NOV2001 3:09:55 44.6N 110.7W ML=2.2 UUSN ESE of Madison Junc., WY
O: 7NOV2001 4:07:13 44.7N 110.9W ML=1.8 UUSN NNW of Madison Junc., WY
O: 05NOV2001 10:40:59 44.7N 110.8W ML=1.5 UUSN WNW of Norris Junc., WY
O: 8NOV2001 1:27:18 44.8N 111.2W ML=0.9 UUSN NW of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 06NOV2001 7:14:33 44.8N 111.1W ML=1.8 UUSN N of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 07NOV2001 10:34:08 44.8N 111.0W ML=1.1 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 06NOV2001 20:20:40 44.9N 111.4W ML=1.9 UUSN NW of W. Yellowstone, MT

EASTERN U.S./CANADA

O: 08NOV2001 11:31:23 35.4N 84.2W ML=1.7 JIEE ESE of Madisonville, TN

ALASKA

O: 08NOV2001 11:18:41 53.0N 155.7W ML=3.6 AEIC SSW of Anchorage, Alaska
O: 08NOV2001 11:18:39 55.0N 155.8W ML=3.4 AEIC SSW of Anchorage, Alaska

O: 08NOV2001 06:05:29 61.4N 139.9W ML=2.6 PGC WNW Haines Jct. YT

O: 06NOV2001 17:00:41 58.2N 137.4W ML=2.8 PGC GLACIER BAY, ALASKA.

HAWAII

O: 08NOV2001 23:45:53 19.3N 155.2W ML=3.1 HVO NW of Ka`ena Point, Hawaii