Earthquake Summary for November 6, 2001

Earthquake Summary for November 6, 2001

Posted by Lowell on November 06, 2001 at 23:51:56:

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM ENTERS SECOND DAY-STRONG SEISMICITY EXPECTED NOV 10-12

SUMMARY

GEOMAGNETIC EFFECTS

The strong geomagnetic storm and proton storm which started
yesterday continued throughout the day today. The initial seismicity
peak which accompanied the sudden commencement of this storm at
03:54 UT this morning (November 6) gave way to seismic doldrums
after about 5 hours. This may be due to the effect (previously
described) of the accompanying proton storm.
The decline of the proton storm normally signals a strong increase
in seismicity. This seismicity will probably be most prominent within
20 degrees longitude of 59W and 121E (anti- and sub-solar at 03:54 UT)
and within 120W and 60E (sub- and anti-solar at 20:00 UT, the start
of the storm sequence). Of course, as usual, high latitudes and areas
near the geomagnetic equator are also susceptible to induced seismicity.
Strong geomagnetic field changes were also observed around 17:00 UT
and 7:00 UT.
Because of the strength and length of the storm, however seismicity
around the entire earth should show moderate to strong enhancement
following the decline of the proton storm to pre-storm levels.
Strongest seismicity (i.e. events of Mw>6 and in this case probably
at least one event of Mw>7) is most likely to occur 4-6 days after the
storm commencement in the sub- or anti-solar regions or at high
latitudes. This would place these events around 10-12 November.
Enhanced seismicity in volcanic regions (Volcanos or volcanic arcs and
mid-ocean ridges) should also increase around November 10-12.

HURRICANE MICHELLE

Hurricane Michelle is headed into the Central Atlantic as a
Category 1 hurricane. It is not expected to have any further
effects on seismicity of North America. The storm surge did
apparently push No. America in a northerly direction, however,
temporarily reducing differential motion between the North American
and the Pacific plate. This reduced seismicity along the Pacific
coast to a trickle, and in the case of Southern California eliminated
nearly all seismicity. In the next day, North America should begin
to play catch-up and an enhancement in seismicity along the Pacific
coast might be observable.

GLOBAL

Global seismicity was relatively light today, although this is
expected to change in the next 3 days. The most active areas were
the coast of Chile where a Mb 5.2 event occurred this morning
in Central Chile and a Mb 4.6 this evening in northern Chile; and
the Xizang-India region where two events of Mb 4.9 were listed this
afternoon.
The most unusual event of the day occurred this evening in the
Red Sea region as a Mb 4.2 earthquake (ISR). The Red Sea is a highly
volcanic rift zone and seismicity in that region is very commonly
associated with strong geomagnetic storms. There have been two other
earthquakes in this area of the Red Sea during 2001 - both Ml 4.4 and
both on August 20. A strong geomagnetic storm had preceded these
events on August 17 (AA index: 60; KP 7).
Other events of M>=4 occurred in Kamchatka (Mb 4.4); the Fiji
Islands (Mb 4.5) and in the southeastern Afghanistan/Pakistan area.
Heavy bombardment with massive "Daisy cutter" bombs which leave
craters as big as 6 football fields occurred in Afghanistan as well
today. It is not known if these event and the bombing were related.

U.S./CANADA

The strongest activity in the U.S./Canada area today continued
to be in the Central mountain region. A Ml 3.3 was recorded this
morning near Jackson Lake, WY after a Ml 3.4 in northern Colorado
yesterday. NEIS reported a ghost Mb 5.5 event in South Dakota around
19:59 UT, but seismograms do not show this event. The cause of this
report is not known. See:
http://www.emsc-csem.org/cgi-bin/ALERT_all_messages.sh?1
for details.
Swarms of light earthquakes in the Yellowstone, Hawaii, and
Mt. St. Helens appeared to be much less prominent today, although
they may resume around Nov. 10 following the current geomagnetic
disturbances.
Seismicity in California was moderately strong in the Coalinga/
Pinnacles area during the initial stages of the geomagnetic storm
as reported yesterday, but declined later in the day. Seismicity
in southern California was virtually non-existent throughout most
of the day, but began to pick up this evening with events of
Ml 2.6 near Ocotillo and Ml 2.5 and 2.2 south of Calexico. Two
small events were located in the greater Los Angeles vicinity - a
Ml 1.9 near Pt. Fermin, San Pedro, CA and a Ml 1.6 near Echo Park, CA.
No events of Ml>=3 were recorded in Canada, Alaska or Hawaii
today. A small earthquake was listed in SE Quebec (Ml 1.8).

NEW ZEALAND

Activity in New Zealand was light over the past 24 hours. IGNS
reported a Ml 3.7 near Kikoura, South Island that occurred this
afternoon (NZST).

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

"Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be
unsettled to minor storm conditions on the first day of the period and then
declining to mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active conditions
possible, on days two and three. However, there have been several long and near
long duration flares in the last two days that could have produced
earth-directed coronal mass ejections. Since the onset of the proton storm at
approximately 1700 UTC on 04 November, the LASCO instrument has been saturated
by the particles and it is nearly impossible to determine if any CME's have
been produced or if they are earth-directed. Impacts from any earth-directed
CME's would obviously cause an increase in geomagnetic activity. The greater
than 100 MeV proton event is expected to continue until approximately
07/1200 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event ended the day at 567 pfu
and is expected to continue for at least another 24 hours. The Polar cap
absorption event is expected to last until 09/0000 UTC."

A polar cap absorption event is often associated with seismicity
near the geomagnetic poles. This should happen within the next
two days.

The decline of the proton storm normally signals a strong increase
in seismicity. This seismicity will probably be most prominent within
20 degrees longitude of 59W and 121E (anti- and sub-solar at 03:54 UT)
and within 120W and 60E (sub- and anti-solar at 20:00 UT, the start
of the storm sequence). Of course, as usual, high latitudes and areas
near the geomagnetic equator are also susceptible to induced seismicity.
Strong geomagnetic field changes were also observed around 17:00 UT
and 7:00 UT.
Because of the strength and length of the storm, however seismicity
around the entire earth should show moderate to strong enhancement
following the decline of the proton storm to pre-storm levels.
Strongest seismicity (i.e. events of Mw>6 and in this case probably
at least one event of Mw>7) is most likely to occur 4-6 days after the
storm commencement in the sub- or anti-solar regions or at high
latitudes. This would place these events around 10-12 November.
Enhanced seismicity in volcanic regions (Volcanos or volcanic arcs and
mid-ocean ridges) should also increase around November 10-12.

Moderate Solar flares of M-Class were observed with the following
parameters, however, because of the saturation of the LASCO observing
satellite, additional CME's have been impossible to detect and more
such geomagnetic storms may in store.

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

1180 + 0256 0300 0303 M2.0
1230 + 0620 0625 0629 M1.2
1360 + 1345 1351 1405 M1.2
1420 1507 1549 1708 M1.1

Associated seismicity occured as follows:
1180 0255 Afghanistan Unknown Magnitude (NEIS)
1230 0644 Kamchatka Mb 4.4 (NEIS)
1360 1354 Afghanistan Unknown Magnitude (NEIS)
1360 1409 Xizang Mb 4.9 (NEIS)
1420 1609 Xizang Mb 4.9 (NEIS)
and in California:
1180 0303 Pinnacles Ml 2.2 (NCSN)
1230 0636 Coalinga Ml 2.1 (NCSN)

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011106events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

In the western Pacific Tropical Storm Lingling is currently
over the Central Philippine Islands. Because this is a relatively
weak storm, no strong seismic enhancement is expected. For an
advisory see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/wp200101.public.html

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

November 7 is twenty-two days after the beginning the lunar month
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Aleutians MB>=4.0 27 2.0 0.05
Geysers MB>=2.0 5 1.9 0.05
Greece MB>=4.0 8 2.0 0.05
Indian Ocean MB>=4.0 17 2.1 0.05
Mammoth Lakes MB>=0.0 55 2.4 0.04
Mammoth Lakes MB>=2.0 70 3.6 0.01
Siberia MB>=4.0 38 2.1 0.05
Utah2 MB>=2.0 27 2.7 0.02
Washington MB>=0.0 95 3.2 0.01
Central California MB>=2.0 10 2.5 0.04
Central California MB>=3.0 20 2.5 0.03
Global MB>=5.0 7 2.4 0.04
Hawaii MB>=2.0 20 2.9 0.02
Iran MB>=4.0 30 2.2 0.05
San Andreas MB>=0.0 14 2.3 0.05
San Andreas MB>=2.0 43 1.9 0.05
San Andreas MB>=3.0 40 2.8 0.02
So Asia MB>=4.0 46 3.3 0.01
Turkey MB>=4.0 11 2.1 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

NW Europe MB>=4.0 -9 -1.9 0.05

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

OCEANIA

O: 05Nov2001 17:13:34 79.8N 2.3W MB=4.6 NEIS GREENLAND SEA

O: 05Nov2001 10:07:49 58.2S 25.1W MB=4.8 NEIS SOUTH SANDWICH ISL REGION

NEW ZEALAND

O: 7Nov2001 00:37 42.5S 173.7E ML=3.7 IGNS SE of Kaikoura, N.Z.

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 06Nov2001 00:03:15 21.4S 178.8W MB=4.5 NEIS FIJI ISLANDS REGION

O: 05Nov2001 23:07:12 17.1S 179.3W MW=6.3 NEIS FIJI ISLANDS REGION

O: 05Nov2001 09:09:06 25.0S 179.2E MB=4.3 NEIS SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

ASIA

O: 05Nov2001 20:53:17 8.0S 123.8E MB=4.9 NEIS FLORES REGION, INDONESIA

O: 06Nov2001 16:09:12 33.1N 78.5E MB=4.9 NEIS KASHMIR-XIZANG BORDER REG

O: 06Nov2001 14:09:25 27.3N 92.1E MB=4.9 NEIS E XIZANG-INDIA BORDER REG.

O: 06Nov2001 13:54:48 31.3N 67.9E MB>4.0 NEIS SOUTHEASTERN AFGHANISTAN

O: 06Nov2001 02:54:42 32.0N 68.1E MB>4.0 NEIS SOUTHEASTERN AFGHANISTAN
O: 06Nov2001 02:19:06 32.3N 69.4E MB>4.0 NEIS PAKISTAN

O: 06Nov2001 06:44:39 53.7N 160.6E MB=4.4 NEIS NEAR E COAST OF KAMCHATKA

O: 04NOV2001 04:21 40.4N 142.1E Mj=3.9 NIED NE_OFF_IWATE_PREF, JAPAN

O: 03NOV2001 23:34 43.7N 139.7E Mj=5.4 NIED NW_OFF_SHAKOTAN_PEN, JAPAN

O: 05Nov2001 20:08:23 30.0N 130.9E MB=4.8 NEIS RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

O: 06NOV2001 12:33:40 10.7S 113.8E SR=4.8 AEIC1 SW DENPASAR, INDONESIA

O: 06NOV2001 03:07:40 8.1S 118.5E SR=5.4 AEIC1 N DOMPU, INDONESIA

O: 06NOV2001 02:24:40 10.0S 117.2E SR=4.9 AEIC1 SE SELONG, INDONESIA

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 06Nov2001 06:12:50 30.4S 71.0W MB=5.2 NEIS NEAR COAST OF CEN CHILE
O: 06NOV2001 06:12:53 30.4S 71.3W ML=5.1 DGF NNW of OVALLE, CHILE

O: 03NOV2001 01:43:20 36.2S 72.0W ML=4.8 DGF SW of PARRAL, CHILE

O: 05Nov2001 18:05:24 7.7S 73.5W MB=4.6 NEIS PERU-BRAZIL BORDER REGION

O: 06NOV2001 08:59:59 17.0N 100.1W ML=3.9 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO , MX
O: 06NOV2001 08:51:52 17.0N 100.2W ML=3.5 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO , MX
O: 06NOV2001 08:41:44 17.0N 100.2W ML=3.7 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO , MX
O: 05NOV2001 23:58:06 17.0N 100.2W ML=4.1 SSN GUERRERO , MX
O: 05NOV2001 21:39:14 17.0N 100.3W ML=3.6 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO , MX
O: 05NOV2001 21:05:09 16.9N 100.1W ML=3.6 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO , MX
O: 06NOV2001 00:40:17 17.4N 101.5W ML=4.2 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO , MX

O: 29OCT2001 15:11:12 6.6N 73.5W Mc=3.8 ULA Dpto. Santander, Colombia.
O: 29OCT2001 23:32:19 6.9N 72.1W Mc=3.6 ULA Dpto. Boyac\341, Colombia.
O: 01NOV2001 13:10:32 6.5N 73.2W Mc=3.8 ULA Dpto. Santander, Colombia.
O: 02NOV2001 09:55:33 6.8N 73.2W Mc=3.6 ULA Dpto. Santander, Colombia.
O: 03NOV2001 00:53:40 6.8N 73.1W Mc=4.0 ULA Dpto. Santander, Colombia.
O: 04NOV2001 01:45:09 6.8N 73.1W Mc=4.1 ULA Dpto. Santander, Colombia.
O: 04NOV2001 11:05:44 6.8N 73.2W Mc=4.1 ULA Dpto. Santander, Colombia.
O: 05NOV2001 09:40:18 6.9N 73.2W Mc=4.2 ULA Dpto. Santander, Colombia.

O: 03NOV2001 20:07:24 8.5N 70.9W Mc=1.6 ULA Pedraza, Venezuela
O: 04NOV2001 10:56:11 8.6N 70.6W Mc=1.4 ULA Pedraza, Venezuela
O: 04NOV2001 12:45:15 9.3N 70.5W Mc=2.0 ULA Trujillo, Venezuela

O: 06Nov2001 20:15:16 21.2S 70.4W MB=4.6 NEIS NEAR COAST OF N CHILE

O: 07NOV2001 00:32:50 11.1N 85.7W MC=3.7 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

EUROPE/AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST

O: 07NOV2001 04:05:06 27.9N 34.6E Mb=4.3 GII RED SEA

O: 06NOV2001 06:41:13 39.9N 38.9E ML=3.0 KAN ERZINCAN, TURKEY

O: 05NOV2001 16:23:43 38.5N 25.4E ML=3.6 NOA AEGEAN SEA, GREECE

O: 06NOV2001 03:48:02 64.0N 21.7W ML=3.2 ISO Iceland
O: 06NOV2001 03:48:39 64.0N 21.6W ML=3.0 ISO Iceland

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 07NOV2001 02:55:35 32.3N 115.4W ML=2.5 SCSN S of Calexico, CA
O: 07NOV2001 03:05:51 32.2N 115.4W ML=2.2 SCSN S of Calexico, CA

O: 06NOV2001 15:44:31 32.7N 116.0W ML=1.5 SCSN WSW of Ocotillo, CA
O: 7NOV2001 3:36:26 32.9N 115.9W ML=1.8 SCSN NNE of Ocotillo, CA
O: 7NOV2001 2:08:37 32.9N 116.1W ML=2.6 SCSN NNW of Ocotillo, CA
O: 07NOV2001 02:08:37 32.8N 116.0W ML=2.6 SCSN NNW of Ocotillo, CA
O: 06NOV2001 9:02:16 33.0N 115.9W ML=1.6 SCSN W of Westmorland, CA

O: 7NOV2001 0:01:51 33.7N 118.4W ML=1.9 SCSN WSW of Pt. Fermin, S Pedro, CA

O: 06NOV2001 20:48:36 34.1N 118.3W ML=1.6 SCSN W of Echo Park, CA

O: 06NOV2001 8:59:26 36.6N 121.2W ML=2.4 NCSN NNW of Pinnacles, CA
O: 7NOV2001 4:54:51 36.7N 121.3W ML=2.0 NCSN SSE of Tres Pinos, CA

O: 06NOV2001 20:03:06 37.1N 121.2W ML=1.8 NCSN SW of Gustine, CA
O: 06NOV2001 11:45:04 37.1N 121.5W ML=1.4 NCSN NE of San Martin, CA

O: 06NOV2001 9:41:32 37.2N 118.3W ML=2.4 NCSN NNW of Big Pine, CA

O: 06NOV2001 20:23:31 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.1 NCSN N of The Geysers, CA

O: 06NOV2001 23:42:47 39.8N 120.1W ML=1.0 NCSN NE of Loyalton, CA

O: 06NOV2001 9:27:00 40.1N 123.7W ML=1.8 NCSN ESE of Redway, CA

O: 06Nov2001 03:54:13 36.2N 120.3W MD=2.8 NEIS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 06NOV2001 17:16:00 46.7N 119.5W ML=1.3 PNSN WSW of Othello, WA

O: 06NOV2001 14:55:15 47.7N 120.2W ML=1.2 PNSN NE of Entiat, WA

O: 6NOV2001 1:06:46 47.8N 123.6W ML=1.2 PNSN SSW of Port Angeles, WA

O: 5NOV2001 3:16:06 44.2N 121.9W ML=1.2 PNSN NW of Three Sisters
Note: Only two other earthquakes have ever been located within 30
km of this epicenter. The first was on June 9, 1994 and the other on
Aug. 21, 2001, both with Ml 1.9.

O: 01NOV2001 1: 9:79 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.5 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 02NOV2001 16:45: 5 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.3 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 1:28:24 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.5 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 1:33:43 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.3 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 1:34:34 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.5 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 1:37:54 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.1 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 1:50:62 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.0 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 2:25:54 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.5 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 2:35:65 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.1 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 2:50:27 46.2N 122.2W ML=1.1 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 4: 8:37 46.2N 122.2W ML=1.1 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 5:22:58 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.8 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 7: 9:70 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.5 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 8:16:20 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.8 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 9:27:28 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.8 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 10: 7:71 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.5 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 11: 3:48 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.1 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 11: 4:23 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.6 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 11:49:74 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.6 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 14:34:76 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.5 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 14:36:48 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.8 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 15:57:56 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.9 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 18:21:68 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.4 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 20: 5:28 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.8 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 03NOV2001 21: 7:55 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.8 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 04NOV2001 11: 5:35 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.5 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 04NOV2001 19:12:59 46.2N 122.2W ML=0.1 PNSN MT. ST. HELENS, WASHINGTON
Note: This is the strongest swarm under Mt. St. Helens since 1998.

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 5NOV2001 2:56:05 44.9N 111.5W ML=2.9 UUSN NW of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 5NOV2001 2:53:42 44.9N 111.4W ML=2.6 UUSN NW of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 04NOV2001 21:15:37 44.9N 111.5W ML=2.5 UUSN NW of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 04NOV2001 21:10:01 44.9N 111.4W ML=2.2 UUSN NW of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 04NOV2001 20:44:00 44.9N 111.4W ML=1.9 UUSN NW of W. Yellowstone, MT

O: 06NOV2001 08:35:57 43.1N 111.2W ML=3.3 USBR NE of Caribou City, ID
O: 06NOV2001 10:36:48 43.4N 110.7W ML=2.1 USBR SSE of Jackson, WY,
Note: This event was expected as a FFA of the New Britain earthquake
as noted in the forecast:

"Areas of U.S. and Canada where triggering may occur (Ml>=4.0)

...Utah around 41N 111-113W"

O: 07NOV2001 04:06:54 45.1N 109.5W MD=0.0 MBMG MONTANA

EASTERN U.S./CANADA

O: 06NOV2001 02:46:21 46.8N 74.0W MN=1.8 GSC N of Ste-Agathe-des-Monts, Que.