VOLCANIC ASSOCIATED SEISMICITY AT HIGH LEVELS

SUMMARY

As often happens 4-5 days after a major geomagnetic storm, seismicity
associated with volcanism around the world was very high today. Unusual
swarms of minor events were located under Mammoth Mountain, CA; and
at Mt. St. Helens, WA; in Iceland; Etna, Sicily; and Hawaii. Stronger
events associated with volcanism were recorded in Kamchatka; on
the East Pacific Rise south of Easter Island (Mb 5.0); in the Central
Mediterranean near Crete (Mb 5.0); in the Sea of Japan (Mb 5.0) and in the
Gulf of Oman south of Iran (Mb 4.8).
Mid-ocean seismicity and volcanically-related events may continue
for several days as they are statistically most common 4-6 days after
strong geomagnetic storms. This reporter believes this effect may
be caused by Ohmic heating in fluid magmas by telluric currents induced
from the strong ionospheric currents that form during and after
geomagnetic storms. Such heating would expand the magma volume and
result in eruptions and earthquake after several days.

GLOBAL

In other seismicity, the region of Mexico/Central America has been
very active over the past day. Events in this region included aftershocks
of the Guerrero Ms 6.2 of October, 2001; a Mb 4.8 south of Costa
Rica and a Mb 4.6 off the Coast of Central America near El Salvador.
Earthquakes of Ml 4.3 and 4.4 were recorded yesterday in Costa Rica
and Guatemala respectively.
Other earthquakes of M>=5 were recorded today in Taiwan (Mb 5.0)
the first such in more than a month; the Sea of Japan (Mb 5.6) and Crete
(Mb 5.2). Earthquakes of Mb>4.5 were recorded in So. Iran and the Mariana
Islands (Mb 4.6).

U.S./CANADA

After two days of relative quiet throughout the U.S. and Canada,
a number of earthquakes of Ml>=2 were recorded in the region this
morning after the X1.0 flare. The largest of these was a Ml 3.6 south
of Seward, Alaska, but the entire western U.S. also came alive.
Earthquakes of Ml 2.8 (West of Yellowstone); Ml 2.5 (Helper, Utah);
Ml 1.9 (Mt. St. Helens, WA); Ml 2.0 (Entiat, WA) occurred within
several hours of the flare.
In the California/Nevada area seismicity has not reacted immediately.
Earthquakes of Ml 2.1 (Obsidian Butte, CA) and Ml 2.0 (Olancha) and
Ml 2.3 (Redway, CA) were recorded earlier in the day, but activity
since the flare and the beginning of the proton storm has been
at a near standstill.
Other areas (eastern U.S. and Canada) were not reporting over teh
weekend.
Only one minor event (Ml 1.4) was recorded in the Los Angeles area
despite the usual increase of activity in this region on Sundays.

NEW ZEALAND

Seismicity in New Zealand was very quiet until the X flare this
morning. Then a number of small to moderate regional began to be
found on the on-line seismogram. IGSN has not issued any reports
since our last report, however.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

A strong X1.0 class solar flare occurred this morning with the following
parameters:

Flare # START MAX END CLASS
600 + 1603 1620 1657 X1.0

The only associated earthquake in California was a Ml 1.5 E of
Lee Vining:

O: 04NOV2001 08:08:42 37.9N 118.7W ML=1.5 NCSN E. of Lee Vining, CA

A moderate earthquake did occur during the flare in southern Iran
(Mb~ 5) and after the flare near Crete Greece (Mb 5.1). Source:
http://www.emsc-csem.org/cgi-bin/ALERT_all_messages.sh?1

This appears to be the end of the strong seismic quiet of the past
two days.

A strong proton storm began almost immediately after the flare, and
electron flux dropped to virtually non-existence. The proton storm
will tend to reduce induced currents in the earth (without electron
flux, there are no currents in the ionosphere) and dampen seismicity
for the immediate time, however, a strong geomagnetic storm is likely
in 2-3 days, and at that time a strong surge of seismicity could be
seen. The initial triggered seismicity (possibly at Crete and Iran)
is probably related to the immediate flare effects.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011104events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

Hurricane Michelle, the worst storm to hit Cuba since 1944 and
now a category 4 hurricane with winds of up to 135 mph should
pass over Cuba with considerable destruction and move onto
the Florida Keys or the Bahamas tonight and tomorrow. Mandatory
evacuation orders are in effect. A news story can be found at:
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/reuters20011104_178.html
For trackline and strike probabilities see:
http://hurricanes99.com/
Previous reports have described possible effects of Michelle on
seismicity of North America and the Caribbean.
If the current path continues, however, landfall on North America
is not expected, and the expected seismicity on No. America will probably be
much less than previously described. The current path however,
may enhance seismic effects along the northern subduction zone
of the Caribbean.

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

November 5 is twenty days after the beginning the lunar month
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Central US MB>=1.0 63 2.7 0.03
India MB>=4.0 49 2.1 0.05
N So. America MB>=4.0 24 2.8 0.02
Central California MB>=0.0 43 2.8 0.02
Central California MB>=2.0 9 2.3 0.04
Central California MB>=3.0 23 2.8 0.02
Rocky Mountains MB>=0.0 70 2.7 0.02
San Andreas MB>=0.0 23 3.8 0.01
San Andreas MB>=2.0 75 3.4 0.01
San Andreas MB>=3.0 48 3.4 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

NW Europe MB>=4.0 -9 -2.0 0.05
Mammoth lakes MB>=3.0 -17 -1.9 0.05
So Indonesia MB>=4.0 -29 -2.2 0.05

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

OCEANIA

O: 04Nov2001 15:39:36 36.1S 100.2W MB=5.0 NEIS SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND

ASIA

O: 04NOV2001 17:18:04 38.5N 69.5E Ms=3.2 GSSA TAJIKISTAN

O: 04NOV2001 16:38:04 26.3N 54.6E Ms=3.9 GSSC SOUTHERN IRAN

O: 04NOV2001 08:33:41 15.9N 146.5E Ms=4.6 GSSC MARIANA ISLANDS

O: 04NOV2001 16:45:39 23.9N 121.0E ML=5.1 CWB Nantou, Taiwan

O: 03Nov2001 23:34:32 44.0N 139.5E MB=4.9 NEIS EASTERN SEA OF JAPAN
O: 03NOV2001 23:34:36 44.5N 139.6E MB=5.6 GSSC EASTERN SEA OF JAPAN

O: 03Nov2001 21:50:40 0.3S 120.5E MS=4.4 GSR MINAHASSA PENINSULA, SULAW

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 03NOV2001 14:49:12 10.4N 86.4W MC=4.5 CASC COSTA RICA, C.A.
O: 03NOV2001 16:12:46 10.7N 86.9W MC=4.3 CASC COSTA RICA, C.A.

O: 04NOV2001 08:51:15 16.9N 100.3W ML=3.7 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MX
O: 04NOV2001 05:38:12 16.9N 100.1W ML=3.6 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MX
O: 03NOV2001 20:36:24 16.9N 100.2W ML=3.8 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MX
O: 03NOV2001 11:56:33 17.0N 100.2W ML=3.8 SSN GUERRERO, MX

O: 03NOV2001 23:03:32 16.6N 99.1W ML=4.0 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MX

O: 03NOV2001 18:59:26 18.9N 103.1W ML=3.7 SSN COSTA DE MICHOACAN, MX

O: 03NOV2001 15:41:16 16.7N 93.9W ML=4.0 SSN CHIAPAS, MX

O: 04NOV2001 15:48:51 7.0N 86.2W MC=4.7 SIS Costa Rica, C.A.

EUROPE

O: 04Nov2001 17:23:29 34.1N 25.4E MB=5.0 NEIS CRETE, GREECE
O: 04NOV2001 17:23:27 34.0N 25.0E Ms=3.9 GSSC CRETE, GREECE

O: 04NOV2001 21:43:18 35.6N 22.7E Mb=4.1 LDG CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN

O: 04NOV2001 10:28:14 40.3N 15.6E ML=3.3 BGR SOUTHERN ITALY

O: 01NOV2001 20:57:45 34.3N 32.3E ML=3.1 ISR Cyprus

O: 02NOV2001 07:59:48 28.4N 32.6E ML=3.4 ISR Egypt

O: 04NOV2001 10:43:39 64.0N 21.7W ML=3.3 ISO Iceland

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 4NOV2001 7:52:43 40.1N 123.7W ML=2.2 NCSN ESE of Redway, CA

O: 4NOV2001 3:20:03 37.6N 118.8W ML=2.0 NCSN WNW of Toms Place, CA

O: 4NOV2001 2:10:22 37.6N 119.0W ML=1.0 NCSN W of Mammoth Lakes, CA
O: 4NOV2001 1:16:52 37.6N 119.0W ML=1.2 NCSN W of Mammoth Lakes, CA
O: 4NOV2001 0:51:17 37.6N 119.0W ML=1.4 NCSN W of Mammoth Lakes, CA

O: 4NOV2001 2:08:17 36.9N 121.6W ML=1.4 NCSN WNW of San Juan Bautista, CA
O: 4NOV2001 2:02:11 36.9N 121.6W ML=1.3 NCSN WNW of San Juan Bautista, CA

O: 4NOV2001 0:09:42 36.4N 120.4W ML=2.0 NCSN N of Coalinga, CA
O: 03NOV2001 23:42:04 36.4N 120.4W ML=2.3 NCSN ESE of New Idria, CA

O: 03NOV2001 23:00:24 34.1N 116.4W ML=1.7 SCSN N of Yucca Valley, CA

O: 04NOV2001 13:09:41 36.2N 118.1W ML=2.1 NCSN SSW of Olancha, CA

O: 04NOV2001 13:06:52 33.2N 115.6W ML=2.1 SCSN NNE of Obsidian Butte, CA

O: 04NOV2001 11:39:58 34.0N 118.5W ML=1.4 SCSN W of Santa Monica, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 04NOV2001 19:12:59 46.2N 122.2W ML=1.9 PNSN ENE of Mount St. Helens
Note: This event was accompanied by more than 200 microearthquakes
in the past day. This is the strongest swarm in at least three
years in the region. For detail see:
http://www.king5.com/topstories/10012612_WA1103mtsthelens.html

O: 04NOV2001 15:51:22 47.7N 120.1W ML=2.0 PNSN E of Entiat, WA

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 04NOV2001 20:33:39 44.9N 111.5W ML=2.8 UUSN NW of W. Yellowstone, MT

O: 04NOV2001 17:52:36 39.7N 110.8W ML=2.5 UUSN NNE of Helper, UT

O: 04NOV2001 14:02:15 46.9N 114.3W MD=0.4 MBMG MONTANA

ALASKA

O: 04NOV2001 20:23:42 60.4N 150.6W ML=3.6 AEIC WNW of Seward, Alaska

O: 03NOV2001 18:48:26 59.8N 153.6W ML=3.1 AEIC WNW of Seldovia, Alaska

O: 03NOV2001 19:14:57 58.9N 152.5W ML=3.0 AEIC SW of Seldovia, Alaska

HAWAII

O: 03NOV2001 14:18:23 19.3N 155.0W ML=3.1 HVO S of Kalapana, Hawaii
O: 3NOV2001 1:47:44 19.4N 154.8W ML=3.2 HVO E of `Opihikao, Hawaii
O: 02NOV2001 23:46:11 19.2N 155.5W ML=2.9 HVO WSW of Pahala, Hawaii
O: 02NOV2001 20:52:52 19.2N 155.4W ML=3.0 HVO ESE of Pahala, Hawaii