Hey, good work on that Coalinga forecast Don.
This morning there was a Ml 2.4 identified as occurring near
Coalinga with the following parameters (NCSN):

01/11/02 10:18:28 36.36N 120.40W 10.7 2.4Md B* 25 km N of Coalinga, CA

In his forecast (#10332, Oct 25, 2001) Don had said he expected
an event of Ml 2.5-3.9 within 40 km of 36.3N 120.5W on November 2
(window range from Oct 31 - Nov 4). This event is about 15 km from
his stated epicenter. I usually give credit if the magnitude is
within 0.1 units of the stated range because there is at least that much
slop in the magnitude determination. So, Don's forecast event
occurred on the day expected within the expected magnitude range
and within 15 km of the expected epicenter. You don't get much
better than that - give Don an A on this one.

In the past 2 years, 26 5-day periods have contained an event
which would have matched the parameters given by Don. In the same
period 146 5-day periods have occurred, so the probability of
having a "success" with this forecast is 26/146 = 0.18 or odds
of about 1 in 6.

Don's complete prediction follows:

Coalinga, California Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on October 25, 2001 at 13:36:41:

Magnitude: 2.5-3.9
From: 10/31/2001PDT - To: 11/04/2001PDT
Location: Coalinga, California
Top Latitude: - Bottom Latitude:
Right Longitude: - Left Longitude:

Hi All. I had a very enjoyable morning, but more about that later.

For right now I think I'm going to crawl out on the limb just a little bit
further. May not need a saw to get me down as it
may break with just my being out there near the very end.

Looking for a quake in the range of 2.5 to 3.9 at 36.3N/120.5W. This is about
17Km NW of Coalinga. It should occur on 11/02/2001. The window opens on
10/31/2001 and will close on 11/04/2001. The radius on this will be 40Km.

This quake will most likely be associated with the Nunez fault. Not 100%
sure as to the nature of this fault, but it appears
to be a thrust fault and had a small part in the 1983 Coalinga quake. It is
a SW/NE fault with a length of about 18Km. Not a very big fault by any
standards. Of course this is only the portion of it that can be seen. There
may be more that hasn't been seen as of yet.

Strong evidence indicates that on 10 June 1983 the Nunez fault ruptured
with a 3.9Md with 5 aftershocks in the 3.0+ range on the same day. This is
8 days after the 2 May 1983 main shock. Not sure if this could be considered
an aftershock or a triggered quake in its own right on a nearby fault.

The New Idria thrust fault is also located in this area, but is listed as
inactive. I take that with a grain of salt, but do not
feel that this fault will be affected. However I do reserve the right to be
wrong. I have been wrong in the past, but only once. That was when I thought
I was wrong, but I was actually right. If anyone buys that I have some
bridges for sale that you might be interested in.
Take Care...Don in creepy town