Hi BW. Unfortunately I can't predict the "big one" at present time. The data need for that is not available. In order for there to be a large quake there has to be sufficient stress to produce one. Locating the area that has that amount of stress can't be done at present time with any degree of accuracy.

There are some areas that just may have the amount of stress needed for a large quake. Three are in the Bay Area and possibly two in Southern California. Knowing where these areas are does not make the task any easier, because you still have to know when it is close to breaking.

I have been kicking an idea around for sometime now that may be a clue as to when "the big one" will occur. I have the data that tells me where X-number of quakes can occur in California and or other places. If the data I use centers in one of the most probable areas the thing, or things that may bring about "the big one" will be a geomagnetic storm, and or a major quake in some other location in which the far-field aftershock rings play a part. The most likely set of rings will be those at the edge of the "shadow zone." Keep in mind this all depends upon the fault being near the breaking point and so far no one has found a reliable way to determine that.

As it has been seen in the past there are times you don't get much lead-time. Today's activity in Northern California was most likely the results of the most recent geomagnetic storm. The data I have also tells me to expect an increase in activity in Northern California over the next couple of months. Could be that one the expected locations is where a major quake is expected.

I know this isn't what you wanted to hear, but it’s the best I can do at this time. Take Care…Don in creepy town