Good point Roger. I hope the lurkers understand that distinction. The probability
that Don's forecast would have been correct was 0.25 or odds of 1 in 4 not
1 in 10 - those were the best odds that Don could have hoped for if he had
made his window narrower. Of course, there is a trade-off between hits, misses
and false alarms, and the art of earthquake prediction, once you have a technique
that is better than random is to maximize the hits and minimize the misses and
false alarms, no easy task.
By the way, there was a second Ml 3.0 in the Geysers area this afternoon.