PREDICTION - Coalinga, California Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on October 25, 2001 at 13:36:41:

Magnitude: 2.5-3.9
From: 10/31/2001PDT - To: 11/04/2001PDT
Location: Coalinga, California
Top Latitude: - Bottom Latitude:
Right Longitude: - Left Longitude:

Hi All. I had a very enjoyable morning, but more about that later.

For right now I think I’m going to crawl out on the limb just a little bit further. May not need a saw to get me down as it may break with just my being out there near the very end.

Looking for a quake in the range of 2.5 to 3.9 at 36.3N/120.5W. This is about 17Km NW of Coalinga. It should occur on 11/02/2001. The window opens on 10/31/2001 and will close on 11/04/2001. The radius on this will be 40Km.

This quake will most likely be associated with the Nunez fault. Not 100% sure as to the nature of this fault, but it appears to be a thrust fault and had a small part in the 1983 Coalinga quake. It is a SW/NE fault with a length of about 18Km. Not a very big fault by any standards. Of course this is only the portion of it that can be seen. There may be more that hasn’t been seen as of yet.

Strong evidence indicates that on 10 June 1983 the Nunez fault ruptured with a 3.9Md with 5 aftershocks in the 3.0+ range on the same day. This is 8 days after the 2 May 1983 main shock. Not sure if this could be considered an aftershock or a triggered quake in its own right on a nearby fault.

The New Idria thrust fault is also located in this area, but is listed as inactive. I take that with a grain of salt, but do not feel that this fault will be affected. However I do reserve the right to be wrong. I have been wrong in the past, but only once. That was when I thought I was wrong, but I was actually right. If anyone buys that I have some bridges for sale that you might be interested in. Take Care…Don in creepy town