Hi All,
It appears I have been neglecting my duties on this board in
regard to evaluating posted earthquake predictions. So, I'll
take a few at a time. First - Don's predictions for Southern California -
complete text for these is at the end of this post.

In Post # 10037 (below)

Posted by Don In Hollister on October 15, 2001 at 15:41:09:

Don made a series of predictions for Southern California.

The most impressive of these was for an earthquake in the general
region west of Los Angeles for October 21. This and other California
predictions have a 40 km radius within which the earthquake is
expected to take place.

Don had said

P: 21Oct2001 34.1N 118.8W M2.0-3.5 (between 10-19 and 10-23)
A sequence of earthquakes occurred on October 21 (Local PDT):
O: 21OCT2001 17:28:57 34.0N 118.4W ML=3.0 SCSN SSE of Beverly Hills, CA
O: 21OCT2001 17:36:34 34.1N 118.4W ML=1.5 SCSN SSW of Beverly Hills, CA
O: 22OCT2001 13:06:32 34.1N 118.4W ML=2.3 SCSN SSW of Beverly Hills, CA
O: 21OCT2001 19:06:41 34.1N 118.4W ML=1.5 SCSN ESE of Beverly Hills, CA
O: 21OCT2001 18:11:50 34.1N 118.4W ML=1.7 SCSN WNW of Beverly Hills, CA
O: 22OCT2001 18:11:44 34.1N 118.2W ML=1.6 SCSN NE of Silver Lake, CA
O: 21OCT2001 18:16:56 34.3N 118.6W ML=1.3 SCSN SSE of Newhall, CA

This sequence falls between 40 and 20 km from Don's epicenter,
within his range, the largest were of Ml 3.0 and 2.3 within his
magnitude range and the sequence begins on the day specified.
That is a pretty good forecast, Don.
There have been 42 earthquakes of M>=2 in the 40 km range
this year for a daily rate of about 1 every 7 days. The odds of
a correct "guess" within 7 days, then is pretty good, but the
odds of a correct guess on the day noted, is only 1 in 7. Grade A.

Second prediction was:

P: 21Oct2001 33.7N 117.1W M2.5-3.5 (between 10-19 and 10-23)
An earthquake was observed at:
O: 19OCT2001 19:08:47 33.9N 116.9W ML=2.5 SCSN , CA

This earthquake occurs within 40 km from the predicted epicenter
within the time limits and magnitude limits. The chances of a
correct guess on a given day is about 1 in 7 so the probability
within 2 days is about 1 in 3. Grade A- because the probability
is pretty high of success.

P: 17Oct2001 33.7N 117.3W M2.0-3.0 (between 10-15 and 10-19)
An earthquake was observed at:
O: 19OCT2001 19:08:47 33.9N 116.9W ML=2.5 SCSN , CA

Earthquakes of Ml2-3 occur on average once every two days within
40 km of this epicenter during the past year. While this forecast
is valid, it is useless.

Time has not expired on the fourth prediction which was
for Redlands, CA between 21 and 25 October.

Don had also made a forecast for Southwestern France which time
window has now expired:

P: 20Oct2001 43.1N 0.6W M2.5-3.5 (between 10-18 and 10-22)
An earthquake occurred at:
O: 22OCT2001 20:24:32 43.1N 1.1W ML=2.0 STR SE SAINT-JEAN-PIED-DE-POR, FRAN

This event is within 40 km of the epicenter expected, but less
than the magnitude range and within the time window. Since October, 2000
65 windows of 73 possible have contained an event of ML>=2 within
40 km of this epicenter, so the random probability of success was
about 0.9, in other words, Don would have had this right by guessing
9 out of 10 times. The prediction is perfectly correct, but again
it is not particularly surprising that an event occurred given the
90% probability of random occurrence.

A second event in France was forecast, but the time window is
still running on it.

Don's forecasts had read:

From: 10/15/2001PDT - To: 10/25/2001PDT
Location: Southern California
Top Latitude: - Bottom Latitude:
Right Longitude: - Left Longitude:
Hi All. Having laid in a good supply of raw onions and garlic along with
Moosehead Beer I decided to splurge a little. I hope I haven't bitten off
more then I can swallow.

All of the following forecasts are for the Southern California area.

A 2.0 to 3.0Ml at 33.7N/117.3W. This is about 5Km NE of Lake Elsinore,
California. Should occur on 10/17/2001. Radius is
40Km. Window opens on 10/15/2001 and will close on 10/19/2001.

A 2.5 to 3.5Ml at 33.7N/117.1W. This is about 8Km south of Homeland,
California. Should occur on 10/21/2001. Radius is 40Km. Window opens on
10/19/2001 and will close on 10/23/2001.

A 2.1 to 3.5Ml at 34.1N/118.8W. This is about 17Km NW of Malibu, California.
Should occur on 10/21/2001. Radius is 20Km. Window opens on 10/19/2001 and
will close on 10/23/2001. In the event of a geomagnetic storm this quake could
occur early, or be one magnitude higher.

A 2.1 to 3.9Ml at 34.0N/117.2W. This is about 10Km south of Redlands,
California.
Should occur on 10/23/2001. Radius is 40Km. Window opens on 10/21/2001 and will
close on 10/25/2001.

Now lets see if I choke on this. Take Care...Don in creepy town

French Forecasts (Post # 10056)

Update For France Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on October 15, 2001 at 22:35:15:

Magnitude: 3.5-4.5
From: 10/22/2001 - To: 10/26/2001
Location: Piguet-Dessus, France
Lat: 46.6N - Long: 6.2E - Range: 80Km

Hi All. The earthquake forecasts for France on 10/10/2001 has been cancelled.
The following is the new forecast.

A 3.5 to 4.5 at 46.6N/6.2E. This is about 1Km west of Piguet-Dessus. Should
occur on 10/24/2001. Radius on this is 80Km.
Window opens on 10/22/2001 and will close on 10/26/2001.

A 2.5 to 3.5 at 43.1N/0.6W. This is about 2 Km south of Lurbe-Saint-Christau.
Should occur on 10/20/2001. Radius on this
is 80Km. Window opens on 10/18/2001 and will close on 10/22/2001.