GLOBAL/REGIONAL SEISMICITY RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY, BUT WATCH OUT

SUMMARY

Global and regional seismicity was relatively quiet today, perhaps
due to the current proton storm. Proton storms are often associated
with diminished seismicity while in progress. The major activity
has been regional aftershocks of the Banda Sea (Mw 7.5) earthquake
of yesterday in the Banda and Ceram Sea area.
The U.S/Canada region has also been quiet. The California/Nevada
region has experienced 5 earthquakes of Ml>=2 since the proton
storm began nearly two days ago. The average per day is between
8 and 15 such events. Seismograms from other areas also show
a very quiet day in most regions.
A (possibly strong) geomagnetic storm is expected to commence
in the next day, however. This could trigger a new round of
moderate to large global and regional seismic events.

GLOBAL

Besides events of Mb 4.8, 4.6 and 5.0 in the Banda/Ceram Sea
area, global seismicity was quiet today. The largest event
was a Mb 5.1 in Northern Chile. An unusual earthquake (recurrence
rate about a year) of Mb 4.7 occurred on the mid-North Atlantic
Ridge. This event lies 61 degrees from the Banda Sea quake and
is probably a far-field aftershock.

U.S./CANADA

Regional activity in the U.S./Canada region today was also
relatively quiet. Zurich reported a Mb 5.7 in Louisiana, but
local seismograms show no such event. It is unknown where
the event registered by Red Puma actually occurred. No significant
events occurred from Central America through Canada and Alaska
today.
In California/Nevada only one earthquake of Ml>=3 has been
recorded in the past week. The quiet in the region continued
today with only 5 events of Ml>=2 listed. These were not localized
and occurred at 5 different epicenters - near Willits (Ml 2.3);
The Geysers (Ml 2.3); Indio (Ml 2.3), Calexico (Ml 2.0) and
Coso Junction (Ml 2.0).
No earthquakes of Ml>=3 have been recorded in Alaska or Hawaii.
No other earthquakes of Ml>=2 have been reported in other regions
of U.S or Canada today.

NEW ZEALAND

The on-line seismogram from IGNS showed only very light
activity over the past 24 hours.
As is ususal, a summary of events in the New Zealand region
via QED is included for the previous week (October 10-17, 2001).

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field remained at relative quiet conditions
today. A minor disturbance occurred between about 09:00 and 12:00 UT.
There were no solar flares of M- or X-class today. SEC is expecting
the possibility of a strong storm on October 21 or 22. The proton
storm from yesterday's X-flares is gradually declining and should
be back near background by tomorrow in time for the geomagnetic
storms to begin. Seismicity is expected to rise with maximum
sized events around October 25-27, although seismicity should also
increase immediately at high latitudes, near the geomagnetic equator and in
areas sub-solar and anti-solar at the time of the storm commencement.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011020events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

Tropical Storm Narda currently located at about 10N 127W is the
only storm in the vicinity of North America. It is expected to have
no effect on regional seismicity. If Narda reaches hurricane status,
it may affect Hawaii late next week. Seismicity in Hawaii often
increase at time of passage of major tropical storms.
Fo tracking information see:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/ep200121.html

Tropical storm Podul is current south of the Mariana Islands
moving north from 10N 156E. It is expected to move to the
east of most islands in the west-central Pacific and is not
expected to trigger any seismicity in the next several days.

For public advisory see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/wp200101.public.html

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

October 21 is five days after the beginning the lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day
(With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Central Japan MB>=4.0 14 2.0 0.05
Kamchatka MB>=4.0 58 4.3 0.01
Kanto MB>=4.0 42 2.6 0.03
So. California MB>=3.0 60 2.0 0.05
Washington MB>=2.0 36 3.3 0.01
Washington MB>=3.0 11 1.9 0.05
West Pacific MB>=4.0 22 2.2 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Pacific-Antarctic Ridge MB>=4.0 -59 -2.1 0.05
Caribbean MB>=4.0 -20 -2.2 0.05
N Indonesia MB>=4.0 -41 -2.2 0.05

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND

O: 17OCT2001 20:02:41 44.5S 168.4E MB=4.6 QED SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND

O: 16OCT2001 23:21:45 38.8S 175.8E ML>3.0 QED NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.

O: 16OCT2001 21:02:35 40.6S 174.1E MB=3.8 QED COOK STRAIT, NEW ZEALAND.

O: 16OCT2001 17:14:59 39.4S 178.0E MB=4.0 QED OFF E COAST OF N ISLAND, N.Z.

O: 16OCT2001 17:03:44 36.9S 176.4E ML>3.0 QED OFF E COAST OF N ISLAND, N.Z.

O: 16OCT2001 01:23:32 41.3S 173.7E MB=3.9 QED SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.

O: 15OCT2001 12:50:27 39.1S 175.1E ML>3.0 QED NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.

O: 15OCT2001 03:49:37 39.7S 176.6E MB=5.8 QED NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.

O: 15OCT2001 02:24:59 36.4S 178.3E ML>3.0 QED OFF E COAST OF N ISLAND, N.Z.

O: 14OCT2001 17:40:51 40.2S 173.5E ML>3.0 QED COOK STRAIT, NEW ZEALAND.

O: 14OCT2001 16:50:16 38.9S 174.4E MB=4.1 QED NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.

O: 14OCT2001 03:53:47 32.9S 179.9E MB=4.6 QED SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

O: 13OCT2001 19:51:50 40.1S 174.9E MB=3.7 QED COOK STRAIT, NEW ZEALAND.
O: 13OCT2001 16:15:05 40.1S 174.9E MB=3.7 QED COOK STRAIT, NEW ZEALAND.

O: 13OCT2001 12:47:05 41.2S 172.6E ML>3.0 QED SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.

O: 13OCT2001 03:22:31 37.0S 177.9E ML>3.0 QED OFF E COAST OF N ISLAND, N.Z.

O: 11OCT2001 11:36:43 41.8S 172.9E ML>3.0 QED SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.

O: 10OCT2001 13:58:02 39.5S 174.5E ML>3.0 QED NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.

ASIA

O: 20Oct2001 20:47:22 4.7S 124.7E mb=4.8 GSR BANDA SEA
O: 20Oct2001 19:17:56 3.8S 124.3E MS=4.6 GSR CERAM SEA
O: 20Oct2001 14:03:44 6.3S 124.0E mb=5.0 GSR BANDA SEA

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 20Oct2001 13:26:35 22.1S 68.3W MB=5.1 NEIS NORTHERN CHILE

O: 19OCT2001 15:34:54 10.8N 86.7W MC=4.0 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.
O: 19OCT2001 15:35:20 11.2N 84.8W MC=4.0 CASC NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 19OCT2001 16:25:32 13.9S 72.8W MB=4.0 IGP Central Peru

EUROPE

OCEANS

O: 20Oct2001 08:12:48 35.7N 34.5W MB=4.7 NEIS AZORES ISLANDS REGION
Note: This event occurred 143 degrees from the Banda Mainshock (Ms 7.5)
and should be considered as a far-field afterfshock of that event. It is
the first earthquake within 200 km of this epicenter since Dec. 1, 2000
when a Mb 5.3 occurred. On average about 1 such earthquake has occurred
per year since 1925.

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 20OCT2001 7:40:39 32.6N 117.2W ML=1.7 SCSN SSW of San Diego, CA

O: 20OCT2001 8:27:32 32.7N 115.4W ML=2.0 SCSN NNE of Calexico, CA

O: 20OCT2001 8:00:14 33.8N 116.1W ML=2.3 SCSN ENE of Indio, CA

O: 20OCT2001 6:59:40 34.1N 118.4W ML=1.5 SCSN SSW of Studio City, CA

O: 20OCT2001 15:09:18 34.2N 116.8W ML=1.4 SCSN E of Big Bear City, CA

O: 20OCT2001 11:43:33 36.1N 117.9W ML=2.1 NCSN NE of Coso Junction, CA

O: 20OCT2001 16:56:05 38.4N 122.4W ML=1.6 NCSN WNW of Yountville, CA

O: 20OCT2001 8:23:32 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.3 NCSN E of The Geysers, CA

O: 20OCT2001 6:19:02 39.3N 123.4W ML=2.3 NCSN SSW of Willits, CA

O: 20OCT2001 12:27:46 39.8N 120.6W ML=1.2 NCSN W of Portola, CA