MAJOR EARTHQUAKE HITS BANDA/MOLUCCA SEA REGION (MW 7.5)
RARE EVENT (ML 5.2) FOLLOWS IN ANGOLA, FIRST WITHIN 500 KM IN 87 YEARS

SUMMARY

A major earthquake occurred this morning in the Banda/Molucca
Sea area of Indonesia. This is the largest earthquake to occur
in the world since June 23, 2001 when a Me 8.3 occurred in southern
Peru. A far-field aftershock forecast was published which contains
details on the event and possible associated triggering phenomena.

The event occurred with parameters:

O: 19Oct2001 03:28:40 4.1S 123.9E MW=7.5 NEIS BANDA SEA
OR
O: 19OCT2001 03:28:40 4.3S 124.6E SR=6.8 AEIC1 E RAHA, INDONESIA

AEIC has listed two strong aftershocks:

O: 19OCT2001 11:44:50 5.0S 124.1E SR=5.8 AEIC1 E RAHA, INDONESIA
O: 19OCT2001 09:31:40 4.4S 124.0E SR=6.0 AEIC1 E RAHA, INDONESIA

This earthquake occurred at the end of an X1.2 flare (see below
and far-field forecast). Similarly the Mw 8.3 in Peru on June 23
followed several hours after an X1.3 flare. X-flares have been
occurring about once a month in recent months, so the coincidence
between their occurrence and subsequent major earthquakes needs to
be considered seriously.

SEISMIC HISTORY OF AREA:

NO earthquakes of Mw>=7 have ever been recorded within 200 km
of today's epicenter, so this is truly a rare event in the region.
Six have occurred within 300 km, including two which were larger than
today's - in 1998 (Mw 8.3) and in 1965 (Ms 7.7), both of which ruptured
areas considerably northeast today's event. The event in 1998
occurred on Nov. 29 and killed at least 34, injured more than 89
and destroyed more than 1,000 buildings on Mangole and Taliabu,
Indonesia. A local newspaper account reported a tsunami of nearly
3 meters which was reported by eyewitesses (via. e-mail from Gegar
Sapta Prasetya). On January 24, 1965 a devastating earthquake also hit the
area about 300 km northeast of this epicenter. This event had been
preceded by a series of foreshocks during the previous week. Nearly
3,000 buildings were destroyed on Sanana Island where 71 were killed by
the earthquake and accompanying tsunami.
Other earthquakes of Mw>=7 have occurred in the region on
Aug. 6, 1914 (M 7.0); March 3, 1927 (M 7.0) and June 9, 1938 (M 7.2).

GLOBAL

Other earthquakes in the world today were relatively minor. Apparent
far-field aftershocks occurred in the Kazahkstan region (Mb 4.0, D=61 degrees);
Myanmar (Mb 5.0; D=38 degrees) and perhaps Angola (Mb=5.2; D=110 degrees).
Events of Mb>=4.5 also occurred in Ecuador (Mb 4.6) and northern Chile
(Mb 4.7).
The earthquake in Angola is quite unusual. Only 2 earthquakes have
been recorded within 500 km of this event with Ml>=5. These occurred
as a M 6.2 in 1820 and a M 6.0 on May 24, 1914.
Activity also continued over the past two days on mid-ocean ridges.
The strongest events was a Mb 5.3 on the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge, although
an event also occurred in the South Sandwich Islands in the south Atlantic Ocean.

U.S./CANADA

A proton storm occurred following the X1.2 flare at about 3:20 UT.
Accompanying this proton storm was a virtual shut-down of seismicity
in the California/Nevada region. No events of Ml>=1.9 have occurred
in the region since the proton storm initiation. This light activity
in the region is likely to continue until the CME arrives and
a geomagnetic storm commences. The earthquakes that occurred last
night were concentrated in the Banning/Yucaipa area (Ml 2.5 and 1.8)
and in the Obsidian Butte area (Ml 2.3). An Ml also occurred in
Central Nevada.
Activity in the region south of Vancouver Islands where a strong
swarm occurred in September appeared to resume this morning following
the Banda Sea event. This area is at the p- and s- shadow zone boundary
where strong triggering is always expected. This morning's events
registered Ml 2.5, 2.6 and 2.7. A Ml 2.0 was also registered near
the Dalles, Oregon.
The largest events recorded in the U.S./Canada region today
appear to have occurred near Kodiak Alaska (magnitude about 3.5)
and off the Coast of Northern California this morning (PNSN
determination, poor location and magnitude, probably greater than Ml 3.0).
Besides a Ml 2.6 in Hawaii, no other events were listed of Ml>=2 in the
U.S. and Canada today.

NEW ZEALAND

IGNS did not report any events today as they are closed for the
weekend, however, the on-line seismometer also showed only light
local activity in the area for the day as well.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

Two X-class flares occurred on October 19. The first of these
occurred shortly before the Mw 7.5 in the Banda Sea. This was discussed
in the far-field forecast and will not be reiterated here. A number of
M-Class flares also occurred today. SEC is expecting the CME associated
with these flares to arrive 50-72 hours after the flare and to trigger
geomagnetic storminess, possible major on 21-22 October. More flares
are also considered possible in the next several days.
A minor proton storm began shortly after the first X-class flare
this morning. The beginning of this storm coincided with the Banda
Sea earthquake and was followed by extreme quiet conditions in the
California/Nevada region. Stronger seismic activity should resume
when the CME arrives and the proton storm subsides.
The geomagnetic field remained at quiet conditions despite all
the external influences active today. Flare activity was recorded
as follows:

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

4380 + 0047 0124 0237 X1.6 (approximate times for sequence)
4460 0220 0232 0246 M1.2
4430 0252 0258 0303 M1.4
4470 0314 0316 0318 M1.0
4490 + 0635 0645 0653 M1.3
4530 + 0935 0943 0955 M5.7
4660 + 1613 1630 1849 X1.6 (time given by HOL)
4830 + 2314 2325 2333 M3.3

Two small earthquakes near Hollister, CA were associated with the
first X-flare at 00:59 (Ml 1.1) and 01:00 (Ml 0.7). The Mw 7.5
Banda Sea earthquake occurred after the first 4 flares as the proton
storm was starting at 03:28 UT. From the start of the proton storm
to this time the largest event in the California/Nevada region has
been Ml 1.9. There have been only 7 events recorded of all magnitudes
in the region in the 18 hours since the proton storm began.
The second X-flare occurred while the coast of South America
was sub-solar. An event of Mb 4.6 occurred in Ecuador during this
flare's duration.
For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011019events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

No Tropical Storms are currently near North America.
Tropical Storm Podul (26W) is currently at about 6N 156E
and moving northwesterly at about 4 knots. Podul may pass near
Guam next week. Seismicity near Guam often accompanies the passage
of tropical storms, so this is a storm to watch in that area.

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

October 20 is four days after the beginning the lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day
(With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Caribbean MB>=4.0 20 2.3 0.05
Caucasus MB>=4.0 25 3.1 0.01
East Pacific Rise MB>=4.0 35 2.1 0.05
Japan MB>=4.0 23 3.3 0.01
JMA MB>=4.0 21 2.9 0.01
Kanto MB>=4.0 61 3.9 0.01
So.California MB>=0.0 11 3.1 0.01
Indian Ocean MB>=4.0 16 1.9 0.05
Kamchatka MB>=4.0 33 2.4 0.04
Washington MB>=2.0 33 3.1 0.01
West Pacific MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions

China MB>=4.0 -17 -2.1 0.05
Italy MB>=4.0 -30 -2.0 0.05
EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 18Oct2001 08:00:59 25.7S 177.2W MB=4.1 NEIS SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

ASIA

O: 19Oct2001 14:56:52 42.0N 79.0E MB=4.6 NEIS KYRGYZ-XINJIANG BDR REG.

O: 19OCT2001 12:44:10 10.9S 113.5E SR=4.8 AEIC1 S JEMBER , INDONESIA
O: 18OCT2001 08:19:30 10.7S 113.7E SR=4.9 AEIC1 SW DENPASAR , INDONESIA

O: 19OCT2001 09:49:30 7.0S 109.3E SR=4.8 AEIC1 SW PEMALANG , INDONESIA

O: 19Oct2001 03:28:40 4.1S 123.9E MW=7.5 NEIS BANDA SEA
O: 19OCT2001 11:44:50 5.0S 124.1E SR=5.8 AEIC1 E RAHA , INDONESIA
O: 19OCT2001 09:31:40 4.4S 124.0E SR=6.0 AEIC1 E RAHA , INDONESIA
O: 19OCT2001 03:28:40 4.3S 124.6E SR=6.8 AEIC1 E RAHA , INDONESIA

O: 19OCT2001 01:48:10 9.2S 118.1E SR=4.8 AEIC1 SW DOMPU , INDONESIA

O: 18OCT2001 17:01:30 0.5S 97.8E SR=5.2 AEIC1 GUNUNG SITOLI, INDONESIA

O: 18OCT2001 04:57:10 9.5S 114.0E SR=5.6 AEIC1 BANYUWANGI , INDONESIA

O: 17OCT2001 12:52:40 8.7S 123.8E SR=5.3 AEIC1 PANTAIMAKASAR , INDONESIA

O: 19Oct2001 07:04:34 21.1N 93.6E MB=5.0 NEIS MYANMAR
O: 19oct2001 07:04:34 21.1N 093.6E Mb=5.0 ASC N of Chaungmuhtsa Myanmar

O: 15OCT2001 20:46 34.0N 135.5E Mj=3.7 NIED CENTRAL_WAKAYAMA_PREF, JAPAN

O: 15OCT2001 16:34 37.8N 142.1E Mj=4.1 NIED SE_OFF_MIYAGI_PREF, JAPAN

O: 19Oct2001 10:50:13 54.4N 158.0E MB=5.0 NEIS KAMCHATKA PEN, RUSSIA
O: 19OCT2001 10:49:58 53.5N 158.2E MB=5.0 GSSC NEAR E. CST KAMCHATKA

O: 19OCT2001 07:04:48 22.3N 92.1E Ms=4.7 GSSC INDIA-BANGLADESH BORD
O: 19OCT2001 07:04:42 21.5N 91.9E Mb=5.2 MIX BAY OF BENGAL

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 19OCT2001 15:34:54 10.8N 86.7W MC=4.0 SIS COSTA RICA C.A.

O: 19Oct2001 18:26:01 1.8S 77.6W MB=4.6 NEIS ECUADOR

O: 19Oct2001 15:35:00 22.4S 65.9W MB=4.7 NEIS JUJUY PROVINCE, ARGENTINA
O: 19OCT2001 15:35:00 22.4S 65.8W ML=4.7 DGF SW of TARIJA, Bolivia

AFRICA

O: 19Oct2001 13:01:23 7.9S 12.1E MB=5.2 NEIS ANGOLA
O: 19OCT2001 13:01:26 7.6S 11.1E Ms=4.8 GSSC SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN

OCEANIA

O: 18Oct2001 12:55:58 55.1S 126.9W MS=5.3 NEIS SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE

O: 18Oct2001 09:26:28 55.9S 28.8W MB=4.0 NEIS SOUTH SANDWICH ISL REGION

CARIBBEAN

O: 18Oct2001 19:15:41 19.3N 64.6W MB=4.5 NEIS VIRGIN ISLANDS

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 19OCT2001 4: 8:13 41.5N 125.0W ML>3.0 PNSN OFF COAST NO. CALIFORNIA
F: 17OCT2001 #94-12c 41.0N 125.1W 3.0-4.0 AAAAA Off Coast No. California

O: 19OCT2001 8:47:17 33.9N 116.8W ML=2.5 SCSN E of Banning, CA
O: 19OCT2001 5:14:46 34.0N 117.0W ML=1.8 SCSN WNW of Beaumont, CA

O: 19OCT2001 8:11:58 33.2N 115.6W ML=2.4 SCSN NNE of Obsidian Butte, CA

O: 18OCT2001 23:50:53 38.7N 116.0W ML=2.2 NCSN ESE of Pritchards Station, NV

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 19OCT2001 07:36:01 48.7N 128.5W ML=2.5 PGC WSW Tofino BC
O: 19OCT2001 04:25:28 48.7N 128.4W ML=2.6 PGC SW Tofino BC
O: 19OCT2001 00:34:29 48.7N 128.4W ML=2.7 PGC SW Tofino BC

O: 17OCT2001 18:48:05 52.6N 132.0W ML=1.4 PGC S Sandspit BC
O: 18OCT2001 22:06:47 52.7N 132.0W ML=1.7 PGC SW Sandspit BC
O: 18OCT2001 20:17:08 52.8N 132.0W ML=3.1 PGC S Sandspit BC
O: 18OCT2001 19:54:29 52.7N 131.9W ML=1.3 PGC S Sandspit BC
O: 18OCT2001 15:03:20 53.8N 132.4W ML=1.5 PGC SW Massett BC

O: 19OCT2001 13:49:52 45.5N 121.4W ML=2.0 PNSN WSW of The Dalles, OR

O: 19OCT2001 10:00:50 47.7N 121.9W ML=1.2 PNSN E of Duvall, WA

O: 19OCT2001 8:44:50 47.4N 121.7W ML=1.0 PNSN SE of North Bend, WA

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 19OCT2001 23:30:21 47.0N 113.1W MD=0.8 MBMG MONTANA

O: 19OCT2001 22:27:39 45.3N 112.4W MD=0.0 MBMG MONTANA
O: 19OCT2001 22:27:24 44.5N 112.8W MD=1.4 MBMG MONTANA

O: 18OCT2001 16:26:49 45.2N 111.9W MD=1.2 MBMG MONTANA

ALASKA

O: 19Oct2001 12:23:18 58.2N 151.2W ML>3.5 NEIS KODIAK ISL REGION, ALASKA