My physical verification ... results
Posted by Amit on November 03, 2013 at 12:23:47:

Roger
It was concluded by the evaluates that, my predictions are below average and that if any one gives random dates,he can beat my predictions( as I am below statistical average.
As I am little skeptical of the Jones method of evaluation being followed, I have physically checked all my predictions taking in to consideration my blog dates as well as Rogers list

Here are my findings
From 19.11.2006 to 18.10.2013 ,all quakes predicted by me ,those are 6.5 or above are

1) Total Prediction 161 dates ( 6 to 6.4 are not considered)
2) Actual 6.5 and above quakes .......54 ( in + or - one day window and UTC time)
Now
3) average/ odds of 6.5+ quakes is ...0.3 ie 30% chances of it to occur on random date with window
period
4)Actual rate is 54/161= 0.335 ie 33.5% which is above average

Again ,the method was not fine tuned in the first couple of years ie 2006 to 2009 the rate was less .
If we consider years 2010 to 2013 ,th results are

1) Total predictions.......113 dates
2) hits.........................47 ( with + or - one day window)

Thus result is 47/113=0.416 ie 41.6% which is well above average

If Roger wishes ,the actual dates compared with his list of 232 predictions can be posted or e mailed

Amit


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: My physical verification ... results - Skywise  17:50:50 - 11/3/2013  (101289)  (1)
        ● Re: My physical verification ... results - Skywise  17:51:36 - 11/3/2013  (101290)  (0)
     ● Re: My physical verification ... results - Skywise  15:41:42 - 11/3/2013  (101284)  (0)
     ● Re: My physical verification ... results - Roger Hunter  12:47:39 - 11/3/2013  (101277)  (1)
        ● Re: My physical verification ... results - Roger Hunter  13:17:45 - 11/3/2013  (101278)  (1)
           ● Re: My physical verification ... correction - Roger Hunter  13:35:23 - 11/3/2013  (101279)  (2)
              ● Re: My physical verification ... another correction - Roger Hunter  17:08:59 - 11/3/2013  (101285)  (1)
                 ● Re: My physical verification ...still another correction - Roger Hunter  19:25:29 - 11/3/2013  (101293)  (1)
                    ● Re: My physical verification ...still another correction - Amit  20:54:39 - 11/3/2013  (101294)  (1)
                       ● Re: My physical verification ...still another correction - Roger Hunter  21:17:53 - 11/3/2013  (101295)  (1)
                          ● Re: My physical verification ...still another correction - Amit  22:20:05 - 11/3/2013  (101297)  (1)
                             ● Re: My physical verification ...still another correction - Roger Hunter  23:54:28 - 11/3/2013  (101298)  (1)
                                ● Re: My physical verification ...still another correction - Roger Hunter  00:12:37 - 11/4/2013  (101299)  (0)
              ● Re: My physical verification ... correction - Amit  13:45:37 - 11/3/2013  (101280)  (0)