Amit;

Here's how you did with mag 6.5+ quake predictions

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350 mag 6.5+ quakes
Odds are .2967 for a mag 6.5+ quake in a 3 day window.
226 Amit predictions.
68 Amit hits.
Expected hits = 226 * .2967 = 67

Number of random hits in 5 increment groups
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 86 1083

55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
6816 21025 32075 25584 10700 2333 274 19 0 0
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You will notice that the peak in random predictions is a bit lower than the expected value but that your score and the expected score are together in that next group.

This may be due to the limitations of the random number generator, which are never perfect.

I'm glad you understand my motives. I'm not "out to get" anyone.

The Jones method is designed to eliminate clusters as much as possible so as to give a more correct overall probability. If we calculate the probability of a given number of quakes in a window, your success would be much lower because the clusters are not that frequent. What Jones gives us is the odds on a date hit of one or more quakes and that's what you are predicting.

Roger