EUROPE EXPERIENCES STRONG INCREASE IN MODERATE SEISMIC ACTIVITY

SUMMARY

The whole of Europe has shown high rates of seismic activity
over the past two days. There have been unusual moderate magnitude
earthquakes in the Central Mediterranean/Sicily (Mb 5.4 or Mb 4.6);
Turkey (Mb 4.9) and Romania (Mb 4.8) today and yesterday.
The earthquake in Romania is the first moderate event in that
area since August 1, 2001. Seven earthquake of Ml>=4.5 have occurred
within 100 km of this epicenter since Jan 1, 1998, about one each
6 months. Three have occurred in 2001.
The event in the Central Mediterranean is the largest earthquake
on record within 100 km of today's CSEM shallow epicenter. The previous largest
occurred on Oct 13, 1920 of Ms 5.0. It seems more likely, however
that an intermediate depth epicenter near Sicily of Mb 4.6 reported
by NEIS for this event is correct.
The earthquake (Mb 4.9) in Central Turkey was the largest within
100 km of this epicenter July 4, 1998. A slightly smaller (Mb 4.8) event
occurred nearby on May 12, 2000. There have been 40 events of Mb>=4.9
in this area of Turkey which have been recorded since the first
in 524 A.D (M 5.2).
Small clusters of earthquakes have also occurred in the United Kingdom and
the North Sea where BGS has identified nine earthquakes from October 8-18.
Six of these have occurred in four different epicentral areas since October 14 -
in the southern North Sea (Oct 14, Ml 2.7); Chester, Cheshire, U.K
(Oct 17, Ml 2.4, 1.5, 2.1); the northern North Sea (Oct 17; Ml 1.8);
and the latest at Bargoed, Mid Glamorgan U.K (Ml 2.5 Oct 18). On
aver the U.K. sees 1-2 earthquake of Ml>=2 in a month. Compare this
seismicity rate with one earthquake in the region between Sept. 18
2001 and October 5, 2001. For listing of U.K. events see:
http://www.gsrg.nmh.ac.uk/recbrit.html
The U.K. was mentioned as an area where far-field triggering was likely
from both Guam and Kamchatka in the aftershock forecasts:

"71-73 degrees: ... U.K"

These U.K. events lie at 107-108 degrees from Guam (at the S-wave
shadow zone boundary) and at 72-73 degrees from Kamchatka.

A series of small earthquakes has also occurred in France and
Germany over the past three days with at least 18 in France and northern
Poland and Germany of Ml>=2 during the period 16-17 October. The increased
activity in these areas may also be related to far-field triggering
from these two events.

GLOBAL

Outside of Europe, activity continued in the Virgin Islands region
with a Mb 4.5 aftershock of yesterday's Mw 6.0. A Mb 4.5 was
also listed off the Pacific Coast of Central America.
Activity was relatively light in Asia with the only reported
events a Mb 4.2 in the Solomon Islands and a Mb 4.5 in the
Santa Cruz Isl. east of the Solomons. Earthquakes of Mb 4.6
(Peru aftershock zone) and Mb 4.4 (near Tokyo, eastern Honshu)
completed the days global activity. NEIS did not list any event
of Mb>=5 today.

U.S./CANADA

The largest earthquakes listed since the last report occurred
in Alaska yesterday with Mb 4.5 in the Alaska Peninsula and
an Mb 4.6 in the Central Andreanoff Islands. Both of these events
were anticipated as far-field aftershocks.
Another Ml 3.1 earthquake was reported by HVO from Hawaii yesterday
as well. This too, is probably a far-field aftershock at 58 degrees
from Guam.
No earthquakes of Ml>=3 were recorded in the contiguous 48 states
today. Seismicity in the California/Nevada region today was moderately
light. The largest earthquake was in the Central California area -
a Ml 2.8 near Morgan Hill, CA. Also in Central and northern California,
events of ML>=2 occurred near the Geysers, CA with events of Md 2.4 and 2.0;
Mammoth Lakes (Ml 2.0) and Chico (Ml 2.1). Seismicity in Central
California and Mammoth Lakes often increases at this point in
the lunar month (see yesterday's report).
In southern California, seismicity was light. Earthquakes of Ml>=2
occurred near Lake Isabella (Ml 2.2); Baker (Ml 2.4); Olancha (Ml 2.2);
Twentynine Palms (Mc 2.1) and Joshua Tree CA (Ml 2.3).
Seismic activity began to pick up in southeastern Canada since
a quiet period between 10 and 16 October. Earthquakes of Ml 1.9 and
1.8 have been recorded in southern Ontario and Quebec and a Ml 2.5
near Nova Brunswick about the time that Hurricane Karen was making
landfall on October 16. This report had stated on October 15:

" Tropical Storm Karen made landfall in Nova Scotia today.
Only minor local seismicity is expected to be associated
with this storm."

A minor swarm continues in the Yellowstone Park area of Montana.
Only light seismic activity was listed in the northwest U.S. with
events of Ml 2.1 at Goat Rocks, WA and Ml 2.2 near Glacier Peak WA.
No events were reported from the Central or Eastern U.S. today.

Tidal triggering of seismicity is likely to be at a strong
point in North America over the next two days.

NEW ZEALAND

A moderate earthquake (Ml 4.6) was recorded on October 17 on
South Island, New Zealand. IGNS has also reported two events
on North Island in the Ml>=3.5 range in the past two days. All
these events occurred while far-field triggering was expected
in the region from the Guam mainshock and are occurring at
59-61 degrees from that shock.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field remained at extremely quiet conditions
today. No M- or X-class flares were observed on the sun. SEC
is expecting quiet conditions for the next three days.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011018events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

No Tropical Cyclones were found in either the eastern Pacific
the Atlantic nor the Caribbean today.

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

October 19 is three days after the beginning the lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day
(With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Alaska MB>=4.0 6 1.9 0.05
Central California MB>=2.0 9 2.3 0.05
Mammoth Lakes MB>=2.0 45 2.3 0.05
Mammoth Lakes MB>=3.0 23 2.6 0.03
Mt ST.Helens MB>=1.0 29 2.2 0.05
Spain MB>=4.0 31 2.2 0.05
Arctic MB>=4.0 36 2.3 0.04
Caribbean MB>=4.0 27 3.0 0.01
Caucasus MB>=4.0 23 2.9 0.01
So. California MB>=0.0 10 2.7 0.03
So. California MB>=2.0 22 1.9 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

CARIBBEAN

O: 18Oct2001 19:15:41 19.3N 64.6W MB=4.5 NEIS VIRGIN ISLANDS

NEW ZEALAND

O: 17Oct2001 20:02 44.5S 168.3E ML=4.6 IGNS N of Glenarchy, N.Z.
Note: (IGNS) Likely to have been felt at Milford Sound and Glenorchy.
Note: This event occurred while South Island was under a seismic
watch condition. It is likely that this is a far-field aftershock
from Guam (8-12 Me 7.1). The far-field forecast from that event
had stated:

"59-61 degrees: South Island, southern North Island New Zealand"

This epicenter is 61 degrees from the Guam mainshock.

O: 17Oct2001 16:50 40.1S 177.0E ML=3.7 IGNS E. of Waipukurau, N.Z.
Note: (IGNS) Possibly felt near Omakere.
Note: This event occurred while South Island was under a seismic
watch condition. It is likely that this is a far-field aftershock
from Guam (8-12 Me 7.1). The far-field forecast from that event
had stated:

"59-61 degrees: South Island, southern North Island New Zealand"

This epicenter is located at 60.3 degrees from the Guam mainshock.

O: 18Oct2001 06:08 39.5S 175.5E ML=3.5 IGNS SW of Waiouru, N.Z.
Note: (IGNS) Likely to have been felt in Waiouru and Ohakune.

New Zealand is one of the areas where there had been a statistical
correlation between lunar tides and events of MB>=4 on the 17th
of October.

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 17OCT2001 21:13:40 17.0S 174.8W MB=4.6 NEIS TONGA ISLANDS

O: 17OCT2001 22:29:30 6.5S 155.3E MB=4.2 NEIS SOLOMON ISLANDS

O: 18Oct2001 11:50:03 11.7S 166.7E MB=4.5 NEIS SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

ASIA

O: 17OCT2001 21:30:26 36.0N 139.6E MB=4.4 NEIS EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN

O: 17OCT2001 16:57:43 0.9S 123.7E MB=4.7 NEIS MINAHASSA PENINSULA, SULAWESI

O: 18Oct2001 03:20:00 2.5S 139.8E MB=4.0 NEIS NEAR N COAST OF IRIAN JAYA

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 18Oct2001 06:01:06 12.9N 90.3W MB=4.7 NEIS OFF COAST OF CEN AMERICA
O: 18OCT2001 06:01:03 12.6N 90.4W MC=4.1 SIS GUATEMALA, C.A.

O: 17OCT2001 04:50:09 6.9N 73.2W Mc=4.1 ULA Dpto. Santander, Colombia.

O: 18OCT2001 04:07:48 9.2N 71.0W Mc=3.2 ULA Municipio Julio C. Salas, VEN

O: 17OCT2001 21:58:58 16.6S 73.6W MB=4.6 NEIS NEAR COAST OF PERU
Note: In the far-field forecast from Guam, it was expected that the Peru
aftershock zone would experience an increase in activity at this time:

"142-146 degrees:... Peru aftershock zone"

This earthquake is located at 143 degrees from the Guam mainshock.

EUROPE

O: 17Oct2001 13:01:24 45.7N 26.2E MB=4.8 NEIS ROMANIA
O: 17OCT2001 13:01:32 45.6N 26.5E ML=4.6 ROM ROMANIA

O: 18Oct2001 18:08:33 38.7N 14.8E MB=4.6 NEIS SICILY, ITALY
OR
O: 18OCT2001 18:07:23 34.8N 18.7E Mb=5.4 CSEM CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN

O: 18Oct2001 15:50:30 36.8N 35.0E MB=4.9 NEIS TURKEY
O: 18OCT2001 18:50:29 36.8N 35.3E ML=4.9 KAN ADANA,TURKEY

O: 18OCT2001 13:58:39 37.1N 35.5E ML=3.0 KAN ADANA,TURKEY

O: 18OCT2001 3:50:13 51.7N 3.3W ML=2.5 BGS BARGOED,MID, ENGLAND

O: 17OCT2001 23:21:36 53.2N 2.8W ML=2.1 BGS CHESTER,CHESHIRE, ENGLAND
O: 17OCT2001 23: 6:0. 53.2N 2.8W ML=1.5 BGS CHESTER,CHESHIRE, ENGLAND
O: 17OCT2001 23: 3:11 53.2N 2.8W ML=2.4 BGS CHESTER,CHESHIRE, ENGLAND

O: 17OCT2001 23:21:8. 61.8N 2.4E ML=1.8 BGS NORTHERN NORTH SEA

O: 14OCT2001 10:17:32 53.4N 2.8E ML=2.7 BGS SOUTHERN NORTH SEA

O: 17OCT2001 17:22:33 43.5N 0.8E ML=2.3 STR SE AUCH(32)

OCEANIA

O: 17Oct2001 21:38:56 82.4N 4.4E MB=3.6 NEIS NORTH OF SVALBARD

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 18OCT2001 6:18:25 34.0N 116.3W ML=2.2 SCSN S of Joshua Tree, CA

O: 18OCT2001 11:42:43 34.0N 117.2W ML=1.3 SCSN SSW of Loma Linda, CA

O: 18OCT2001 8:52:45 36.3N 118.1W ML=2.6 NCSN WNW of Olancha, CA

O: 18Oct2001 14:51:26 37.2N 121.5W MD=2.8 NEIS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
O: 18OCT2001 14:51:26 37.1N 121.5W ML=2.8 NCSN NE of San Martin, CA

O: 18OCT2001 12:53:47 37.5N 118.8W ML=2.0 NCSN W of Toms Place, CA
Note: Mammoth Lakes was listed among areas affected by tides at
this point in the lunar cycle in yesterday's report.

O: 18OCT2001 11:40:00 39.7N 122.0W ML=2.1 NCSN S of Hamilton City, CA

O: 18OCT2001 18:12:15 35.8N 118.4W ML=2.2 SCSN N of Lake Isabella, CA

O: 18OCT2001 16:56:48 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.0 NCSN NNW of The Geysers, CA

O: 18OCT2001 19:22:35 34.3N 118.5W ML=1.6 SCSN NW of San Fernando, CA

O: 18OCT2001 08:18:18 34.4N 116.0W MC=2.1 SCSN N of Twentynine Palms, CA

O: 18OCT2001 11:13:15 34.8N 116.4W ML=2.4 SCSN SW of Baker, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 17OCT2001 01:33:47 52.7N 132.1W ML=2.2 PGC 4 km SSW Sandspit BC
O: 16OCT2001 20:00:24 52.6N 132.0W ML=2.4 PGC 1 km S Sandspit BC
O: 16OCT2001 16:12:21 52.7N 132.0W ML=2.0 PGC 3 km SSW Sandspit BC

O: 16OCT2001 21:43:43 49.6N 127.0W ML=1.1 PGC 3 km W Gold R. BC

O: 16OCT2001 18:12:07 48.9N 129.4W ML=2.5 PGC 5 km SW Pt. Hardy BC
O: 18OCT2001 13:32:41 48.3N 121.0W ML=2.3 PNSN NNE of Glacier Peak

O: 18OCT2001 8:48:14 46.7N 121.3W ML=2.0 PNSN NNE of Goat Rocks

O: 18OCT2001 9:12:52 45.7N 122.5W ML=1.5 PNSN SSW of Mount St. Helens

O: 18OCT2001 12:45:28 47.5N 123.0W ML=1.4 PNSN WSW of Bremerton, WA
O: 17OCT2001 17:10:52 47.8N 121.9W ML=1.9 PNSN SE of Monroe, WA

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 17OCT2001 02:08:32 44.7N 111.0W ML=1.8 UUSN N of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 17OCT2001 07:10:29 44.7N 111.0W ML=1.6 UUSN N of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 17OCT2001 09:41:48 44.7N 111.0W ML=1.5 UUSN N of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 18OCT2001 1:12:35 44.8N 111.2W ML=2.0 UUSN NW of W. Yellowstone, MT

O: 18OCT2001 10:18:13 41.9N 111.5W ML=1.6 UUSN ESE of Richmond, UT

O: 17OCT2001 16:19:03 39.5N 112.2W ML=1.8 UUSN W of Levan, UT

EASTERN U.S./CANADA

O: 17OCT2001 08:20:06 46.2N 74.9W MN=1.9 GSC W of STE-AGATHE-DES-MONTS, QUE.

O: 16OCT2001 20:22:40 47.5N 66.0W MN=2.4 GSC SW from BATHURST, N.B.

O: 16OCT2001 07:18:18 44.3N 76.4W MN=1.8 GSC N from KINGSTON, ONT.

ALASKA

O: 17Oct2001 23:40:34 55.6N 157.2W MB=4.4 NEIS ALASKA PENINSULA
Note: This is probably a far-field aftershock from Guam. The
forecast had stated:

"59-61 degrees: Alaska Peninsula (Unimak area)"

This epicenter lies 61 degrees from Guam.

O: 17Oct2001 08:59:55 51.8N 179.9W MB=4.5 NEIS ANDREANOF ISL, ALEUTIAN
Note: This is probably a far-field aftershock from Kamchatka. The
forecast had stated:

"9-10 degrees: ... Central Aleutian Islands (about 180W)"

This event lies about 11 degees from the Kamchatka epicenters.

HAWAII

O: 18OCT2001 3:16:29 19.2N 155.0W ML=3.1 HVO SE of Ka`ena Point, Hawaii
Note: This is probably a far-field aftershock from Guam. The forecast
had noted:

"59-61 degrees: ... Hawaii"
and
"Hawaii - Earthquakes of Ml>=4 have occurred on 4 occasions
considered very likely."

This epicenter is located at 58 degrees from Guam.