Not tomorrow yet, I know, but it was bugging me. Tell me if this makes any sense to you.

I calculate the jones probability using real data only once, since it's going to be the same for all predictions. Then generate random hit lists based on the same real data. Then analyze those lists.

10 million random predictions in just over a minute. Not bad, eh?

I'm not sure what to make of the results as I don't know if the amount of wandering of the score shown is normal or outrageous.

Brian

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
reading file...
 3  H:/Geo/earthquakes/Catalogs/ANSS catalog/6.5 and up 1980-20131006.txt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Start Date: 2444239.50000000
    End Date: 2456571.50000000
   Time Span:  12333 days
total quakes:  1261
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
computing Jones probability...
      Window Size:  3 days
      No. Windows:  4111
      Window Hits:  990
Jones Probability:  .24081731938701
loop time:   0.062
================================================================================
generating 1000000 random prediction results based on real data...
total hits: 306793
Score/Val/Var Sums:   134359.9994969 133691.0457908 527883.4934437
Standard Deviation:      726.5559121
  Normalized Score:        0.9207188
================================================================================
generating 1000000 random prediction results based on real data...
total hits: 306915
Score/Val/Var Sums:   134662.4623459 133691.0457908 527883.4934437
Standard Deviation:      726.5559121
  Normalized Score:        1.3370156
================================================================================
generating 1000000 random prediction results based on real data...
total hits: 306384
Score/Val/Var Sums:   133994.6651569 133691.0457908 527883.4934437
Standard Deviation:      726.5559121
  Normalized Score:        0.4178885
================================================================================
generating 1000000 random prediction results based on real data...
total hits: 306683
Score/Val/Var Sums:   134385.4879393 133691.0457908 527883.4934437
Standard Deviation:      726.5559121
  Normalized Score:        0.9558000
================================================================================
generating 1000000 random prediction results based on real data...
total hits: 306239
Score/Val/Var Sums:   133673.5107836 133691.0457908 527883.4934437
Standard Deviation:      726.5559121
  Normalized Score:       -0.0241344
================================================================================
generating 1000000 random prediction results based on real data...
total hits: 306125
Score/Val/Var Sums:   133646.3231118 133691.0457908 527883.4934437
Standard Deviation:      726.5559121
  Normalized Score:       -0.0615544
================================================================================
generating 1000000 random prediction results based on real data...
total hits: 307296
Score/Val/Var Sums:   135661.6092851 133691.0457908 527883.4934437
Standard Deviation:      726.5559121
  Normalized Score:        2.7121980
================================================================================
generating 1000000 random prediction results based on real data...
total hits: 306324
Score/Val/Var Sums:   134764.4161152 133691.0457908 527883.4934437
Standard Deviation:      726.5559121
  Normalized Score:        1.4773403
================================================================================
generating 1000000 random prediction results based on real data...
total hits: 306373
Score/Val/Var Sums:   134171.3850237 133691.0457908 527883.4934437
Standard Deviation:      726.5559121
  Normalized Score:        0.6611181
================================================================================
generating 1000000 random prediction results based on real data...
total hits: 306092
Score/Val/Var Sums:   134013.3566813 133691.0457908 527883.4934437
Standard Deviation:      726.5559121
  Normalized Score:        0.4436147
================================================================================
run time:  64.500