Re: Earthquake prediction for November 2013
Posted by EQF on October 16, 2013 at 13:48:38:

Hi Amit Dave,

What I am saying here also applies to Shan who does forecasting work.

As I have said repeatedly in one way or another in notes posted to this bulletin board and elsewhere over the years, simply generating earthquake forecasting data and storing it at some location on the Internet is not likely to accomplish much.

The reason is that there are essentially NO PEOPLE anywhere around the world who are interested in those data regardless of who is generating them. So the data simply disappear into space.

I might be about the only researcher on the planet who is actually interested in other people’s forecast data as I am actually trying to predict earthquakes and get people out of their way instead of just generate data or develop a specific type of forecasting method.

Unfortunately I have only a limited amount of time to work with. And so it is not possible for me to do very much to process other people’s forecast data such as yours though I am doing the best that I can.

The key is to have collaborative efforts where various forecasters compare notes with one another. And their data need to be in a form that can be easily understood.

My own data charts such as the one below show lines pointing to various longitudes over time. And it can’t get too much easier than that for data that are easy to evaluate. If there is a line pointing to say 125 W on my chart for a while then that means that people in the California area should be checking their local precursor data to see if something significant might be approaching.

Roger and I did develop a routine for displaying your high probability dates on that same chart. But before we could get those routines operational for display on the Internet he moved on to some other project. His family members were also having some health problems. And I have not had time to get the necessary code working again.

It is my opinion that your forecast data need to be displayed with an easier to understand format. Also, it would be helpful if you had a special Web page that explained in detail how you generate those data.

As the popular saying goes,

“If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?”

Well,

“If someone generates earthquake forecasting data and no one sees them or makes use of them, did he or she actually accomplish anything.”

I could probably offer you some suggestions for Web page formatting etc. if you were interested.

These are personal opinions.