Re: Jones probability revisited
Posted by Roger Hunter on October 11, 2013 at 18:12:29:

Brian;

EW may mess this up. Negative just means below chance.


DATE QUAKE INFO MAG PMAG ODDS H/M
--------------------------------------------
2006/11/19 .00 .00 6.0 6.0 .240 Hit
2006/11/20 6.0 .370
2006/11/21 .00 .00 6.0 6.0 .180 Hit
2006/11/22 .00 .00 6.0 6.0 .320 Hit
2006/11/23 6.0 .190

# ODDS% H/M SCORE EXP. VAR. CUM SC CUM EXP CUM VAR
------------------------------------------------------------
1 24.0 1 1.43 .13 .53 1.43 .13 .53
2 37.0 0 -.46 .08 .49 .97 .21 1.02
3 18.0 1 1.71 .15 .54 2.68 .36 1.56
4 32.0 1 1.14 .10 .51 3.82 .46 2.07
5 19.0 0 -.21 .14 .54 3.61 .60 2.61

Total predictions: 5
Number of hits: 3
Number of misses: 2

Standard deviation is square root of 2.6078746
Standard deviation is 1.615

Normalized score is total score minus total expected divided by sd
( 3.6085926 - .60388425 )/ 1.6148915
Normalized score is 1.861

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Jones probability revisited - Skywise  18:29:46 - 10/11/2013  (101045)  (1)
        ● Re: Jones probability revisited - Roger Hunter  18:40:24 - 10/11/2013  (101046)  (0)