Roger
The bottom line is there is no time tested method for evaluating earthquake predictions,
It is surprising to see the indifference of seismology departments in general and USGS in particular,that no such proven method is officially approved by any authority. In fact, it is so strongly believed,at all levels, that,the earthquakes can not be predicted and hence no need of such futile exercises
I will believe that,my predictions are below odds/averages if at least 5 out of 10 people can beat my predictions with their random dates,over a considerable period of time,because their is no tested method to find actual odds.
Amit