Chris, regarding multiple quakes, is not the test of the prediction that it come true? It doesn't matter whether one or twenty quakes fit the window, the prediction is still true.

Another way to look at it is with inverse logic (something us programmers do all the time using Boolean algebra).

The prediction is not false if no quakes fit the window.

This is what Roger means when he says he "tests the predictions, not the quakes".

Brian