[Duffy]

(02-23-2015, 12:40 AM)Skywise Wrote:

(02-23-2015, 12:23 AM)Duffy Wrote: I private messaged Brian a couple of weeks ago with concerns of my lack of computer literacy, ( didn't want to spoil the quake thread with different subject) amongst other things, he told me as this was an unusual prediction method, I could dispence with the usual prediction formalities and post images and text instead. Unfortunately, the image refused to go unless I filled in the big red boxes that kept flashing before me.

I should clarify. This forum does require certain forms to be filled in. The intent was to force a minimum of quantified data to make a meaningful prediction. That is, from the point of view of us who evaluate predictions. The problem is that there is a looooooooooooong history of folks saying things like "big quake in Japan tomorrow" and then they claim a particular quake as a hit. But what is a "big quake"? What magnitude? M6? M7? M25? Where is "Japan"? What if the quake was 500 miles off shore? Does that count? What does "tomorrow" mean? What if it was a M9 on the southern tip of the Kamchatka Peninsula? Well, technically, that's in Russia, but would be felt in Japan. Does that count? They said "Japan", not "Russia".

I see four options:

1> Leaves things as they are, but then in posts if you don't really mean the data put in the forms, then the poster would have to clearly say so.

2> Remove the requirement of the forms.

3> Remove the forms altogether.

4> Make a new forum for "informal predictions".

Input is most appreciated.

Brian

Hi Brian;

Had a terrible day yesterday, only hit wrong on two of my own predictions in the past 12 months, then the first one I posted fails dramatically, then I go to bed not fully understanding why (ever tried sleeping with mixed messages in your head). I ended up rising at 4am and went through the days posts and literally found mixed messages.

Rogers last statement of the day said "I mustn't object if the answer is wrong", which I fully agree with and had told him so. I don't want to be seen as a sore looser here, I'm not out to win a prize (the Noble maybe!), the data has been rejected and has already been overwritten in a 24 hour monitoring experiment. Your now talking about altering the prediction format to accomodate data from myself, or others with similar format predictions. I've been here a month now, and spent my time tutoring in VLF with consistancy, and after yesterdays performance, I fear it will be repeated unless I cover a couple of major points that have been over looked in past posts, and an overview of yesterdays dialogue.

The main feature of an image with an EM signal is the EM signal itself, it is the only thing that gives any indication of an impending Earthquake, there fore any VLF prediction can only start from this point. An EM signal never comes after a quake occurance, the energy has been depleated prior to rupture. If an Earthquake occurs at 9:00am and an EM signal appears at 9:30am, the two are not linked, the 9:00am quake will have released its own EM signature up to 48 hours earlier, the next quake after the 9:30am EM signal is linked.

As I've also mentioned in my previous posts, the system only records the primary quake event in a given region, and will not record aftershocks even if the magnitude is greater than the initial quake. The first Earthquake in the Honshu,Japan region occured on 7th Feb 06:19 UT,since then 24 aftershocks have been recorded upto prediction time, including the M6.0 at 10:13 UT on 21st Feb.

Overview of prediction posts

Duffy posted prediction at 8:09pm, comments on problems loading imput and data to site, and mentions the Honshu, Japan quake at 10:13 UT so others would not confuse it with EM signal at 10:30 UT.

12:34am Roger notices script problems regarding minimum magnitude values

12:45am Brian responds and repairs script

12:50am Roger questions possible mag values imputed by Duffy earlier

01:10am Roger tells Duffy about a quake near Honshu,Japan at 10:00:58

02:10am Mr spock arrives

11:10am Duffy notices there has been a glich with script , realises original 10:30 times now read 10:00 so corrects in text, not undully worried as image holds the real time, spends the next hour looking for 10:00:58 Honshu, Japan quake.

02:54pm Duffy discoveres he has a hit with M6.2 quake near Tomatlan, Mexico, a reason for celebration, so jests withTuquila hint wating for conformation from Roger.

03:18pm Roger tells Duffy, he's found the right quake, and asked about any signals from Mexico, Duffy's confused about the right quake and assumes it's the 10:00:58 Honshu, and wonderes why Roger didn't take the Tuquila hint, tries to find 10:00:58 Honshu again!.

04:31pm Duffy, now very confused, describes post procedure with regretable sartirical remark.

04:44pm Roger tells Duffy, quake came before he posted so doesn't count, Duffy only knows of 1 quake at 10:13am but thats not included, no EM signal for that one so no prediction

05:37pm Duffy accepts Rogers fail decision, on going broadband problems may be blocking USGS etc data regarding 10:00:58 quake, and new guy probably made mistake.

06:24pm Roger tells Duffy, one quake to early, Duffy realises he's included 10:13 Honshu, Japan quake, and there is no 10:00:58, and one to late which doesn't understand as 48 hour window was posted.

12:23am Duffy replies at length, not in the best of moods

And that was my day, exitement, elation, confusion and delusion, I'm not blaming Roger here, he used the data in the boxes as he's always done, the phantom quake gave me a headache though!. It's obvious there were misunderstandings and mixed messages

The script was a nightmare, I'm not very computer literate but I know how to add data in 6 boxes, I eventually posted my prediction, and whilst I was in bed, it developed AI and moved down 30 minutes,

I'll post as usual, but I'll add my own times/ dates/mags etc, Don't mind being wrong, but this is a different kind of prediction, I went to some lengths to acquaint members with how to read these images and what to look for, in preparation for predictions, but it was tested under the old system. We're all learning a new thing here, so lets not make Duffy feel like a Japanese loving, postdictioning, soreloosing Englishman.

And drop the sceptisism, or I'll never get over there for Thanksgiving .

Duffy;

So, how was your day??.