[Roger Hunter]

(09-30-2018, 01:17 PM)Duffy Wrote:

(09-25-2018, 02:36 PM)Duffy Wrote:

(09-25-2018, 01:35 AM)Roger Hunter Wrote:

(09-24-2018, 08:50 PM)Duffy Wrote:

(09-24-2018, 08:04 PM)Skywise Wrote: Did a quick USGS search on your parameters. I found 58 quakes in the record going back to 1919. So that's about 20 months between quakes magnitude 6+ in this region. The last was about 11 months ago.

Just a rough guesstimate, but the odds are not in your favor for a hit. Which form a statistics point of view is a good thing for your prediction.

Good to see you Duffy.

Brian

Yeah, I thought the same when I checked the records. My calculations landed on two options, 6'44'S near Yamadena Island or here on these co-ordinates... most of my data  favoured the latter!

Also an excuse to remove that tired old Mid-Atlantic prediction, it had not been over written for 18 months... thought you must be keeping it for posterity (lol)

Thanks for the welcome...


Duffy

Hi Duffy;

Good to see you again!

Roger

Thanks Roger... likewise!

Duffy

This is one of the data set images I used to try and determine co-ordinates for Banda Sea prediction. The image shows a significant aspect change in the magnetometer readings at 21:10 UTC 23rd September.




This is a sun map image from http://www.timeanddate.com showing relevant terminator positions at 21:10 UTC 23rd September. Please note the sunrise terminator is located South of Maluku Island, Banda Sea region at this time.




This is the equivalent moon map for 21:10 UTC 23rd September... note that the lunar terminator was located on Palu and Dongala, Sulawesi at this time, on this day.

Combined with other accumulated online data, and comparisons with my own recorded data, I made a calculated decision to go with the solar map. The evidence seemed 90/10 in my favour, and prompted me to post a prediction here after an 18 month absence... however, the 50/50 sun / moon chance I had, was apparently not in my favour !



This is a magnetometer image covering 23rd - 24th September... the same 21:10 "lunar contact" can be seen left of image. However, the beginnings of a second aspect change can be seen at 18:10 UTC 24th September.



This sun map relates to 18:10 UTC 24th September... the sun was located on longitude 94'33'W at this time (solar noon Offshore Oaxaca, Mexico !).

Apologies for the absence of time stamps on the maps, I have not done this for some time, so the fault may be mine... please verify with the website posted above.


Duffy

OK Duffy, this gives me a better grip on what you're doing.

It's similar to what Ben Davidson is doing. You might check him out.

I don't see any reason for why it would work but results count. If you can show success THAT'S what counts.
Statistically significant success rate, that is. 

Roger