[Roger Hunter]

(04-23-2014, 05:19 PM)Amit Wrote:

(04-22-2014, 12:03 AM)Roger Hunter Wrote: [quote='Roger Hunter' pid='208' dateline='1395965631']
If you have an idea that quakes are triggered by the full moon or whatever, let me know and I'll test it for you.

It has to be something involving data that's available online, like planetary positions, tides, things like that and you have to be able to put it into rules.
IF this happens THEN a quake of given size will happen THERE. That sort of thing.

So far I've tested Berkland, Petra, Shan, Shou and Amit.

No charge; it's my hobby.

Roger

Amit has a theory that large aftershocks will happen at 12 hour intervals
or 7 1/2 days after the main shock.

I looked at all mag 6+ quakes in the neic catalog (1973-2013)
The program read thru the file looking for a mag 7.5+ quake.
When it finds one it starts computing the hours until the next quake.
This continues until it finds a new main quake or until 8 days have passed.

Code:

HOURS AFTER THE MAIN QUAKE
| 0  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------
|86 30 22  7  5 10  6  6  7 12  9  6  7  6  8 12 13  1  6  2  5  6  6  8
| 8  6  3  3  5  5  2  5  5  6  2  4  3  5  2  3  4  3  5  3  2  4  6  1
| 1  4  1  2  5  3  5  1  3  5  2  5  2  1  1  1  5  1  2  0  2  6  2  1
| 1  1  2  6  2  2  1  2  5  3  7  1  3  3  3  1  5  0  1  4  1  4  2  4
| 4  2  1  6  2  1  2  3  3  3  5  7  4  2  0  5  1  1  2  1  5  5  4  6
| 6  2  4  1  5  3  3  3  3  0  4  4  7  2  3  1  7  2  2  5  5  4  3  1
| 1  5  1  3  6  5  2  5  4  0  2  5  1  1  1  2  2  5  0  2  1  2  3  6
| 6  3  4  3  0  1  0  3  4  1  4  2  2  2  4  2  4  0  2  3  3  4  1  2

Looking at the table you will see that there is no peak at 12 hours
and none at 7 1/2 days.

Roger

Quote:Roger
I can not make out anything from this. Are thse figures pertaining to a single quake of 7.5?
How many quakes of more than 7.5 have to plotted ?
Amit

No, the table is the cumulative results of all 7.5+ quakes from 1973-2013, looking for anything smaller up to 8 days later. There were several hundred of them I'll go back and count them if it is important.

Roger