[Roger Hunter]

(03-06-2017, 09:51 PM)Duffy Wrote:

(03-06-2017, 07:08 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:

(03-06-2017, 03:52 PM)Duffy Wrote: Roger;

According to what you posted, nothing has occurred here since 2008, and I am 43 days late.  

If I predict Sumatra, I gain no credit because there is one a month in Sumatra.

If I predict the Kermadec's, I gain no credit because there is one a month in the Kermadec's.

If I predict a location void of activity for nine years, I gain no credit because it is a one hit wonder.

I don't predict anymore because there is "nothing to gain" from it ... I just experiment!


Duffy

Duffy;

I'm sorry you don't like the rules but I didn't invent them.

Part of the problem is your 30 day window. It slants the odds against you.

One hit wonder, yes but if you do it repeatedly it's worth a lot.

Roger

Roger;

I'm not blaming you, and no I don't like the rules because they don't leave any room (or time) to develop new techniques.  I gave my opinion on why individual location history should be taken into account and that's all I can do.  If you want to brush this one under the rug like it was a 2.5 in Turkey, then that's your prerogative to do so ... your just following the rules right! 

If you want me to do this repeatedly ( which may not be as crazy as it sounds)  I need a 30 day window, and a 10 degree corridor to monitor ... bend the rules a bit, and put some incentive back into prediction !

Duffy

Duffy;

Good news! I finally found the error in my program, a trivial subroutine to convert decimal degrees to hours and minutes wasn't doing what it should.

Now I can compute RA and dec for sun and moon for any date and time between 1900 and 2100.

Not that significant since the NEIC quake catalog starts in 1973 and isn't all that complete for smaller quakes.

Still, we do what we can with what we have. I propose to take one day per week, from 1950 to 2010, get sun and moon locations, then look for quakes in a 30 day window within a 90 degree distance in longitude +/- 1 degree.

Do you agree with these parameters? Dec is not being used here, just RA as longitude.

Roger