[Roger Hunter]

(02-09-2017, 11:12 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:

(02-09-2017, 10:59 PM)Duffy Wrote:

(02-09-2017, 10:23 PM)Duffy Wrote: Roger;

I am still convinced that this is not the way to go about this, but I will oblige you and try your method first.

If you are using a 90 degree distance from sub-solar, I will of course have to change the dawn/dusk bands to sunrise/sunset for this to be comparable with your method.  It will take me 2 or 3 days to compare my results in this manner, so I want to make sure this is acceptable. Also, I use to be able to calculate orbital purturbations of asteroids in years past, but I've never been able to figure odds. I would appreciate a quick 101 on this, or perhaps you can work the figures out for me when I get them !

I would still like to try a real-time test again, if your still willing to provide the data ... I will need it by the 15th if you are.


Duffy

Sorry Roger,that won't work because it will negate the whole idea of the test.  The data from my results is as follows;

Dawn contacts = 5
Dusk contacts  = 11
Sunrise           = 7
Sunset            = 5

You can see from this, dusk was the more influential of the bands. Your program would have to allow for this by 18 degrees.  But even this could be difficult because although sunrise/sunset can have a fixed distance, the dawn/dusk bands alter with the sun's North and South motion ... am I understood on this point before I continue ?

Duffy

Duffy;

I understand but I have no way to compute dawn/dusk since they are not fixed distances.

Impasse

I'll look for a program to do it. More later.

Probability here is just success divided by trials or number of ways something can happen. Odds on rolling a 3 on a single die are 1/6 because there are 6 sides and only one #3. Establishing odds is what I was doing. It works where there a lot of unknown possibilities, so you just try it many many times and log the results to get the expectable results.

Roger

Duffy;

Since I can't compute sunrise I decided to try expanding the radius, If sun center was 90 degrees, maybe sunrise was 91 degrees. The results were very interesting.

91 0.382
92 0.414
93 0.410
94 0.416
95 0.460

These are odds on a hit with a 0.25 halfwidth band.
As you can see, there is no magic to sunrise or moonrise. I suspect almost any radius would have it's share of hits.

Roger