[Roger Hunter]

(02-07-2017, 02:31 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:

(02-07-2017, 12:07 PM)Duffy Wrote: Duffy;

Quote:Nothing to be confused about here, I gave account of an idea relating to trigger points, as per your enquiry.  You thought it was some kind of formula to explain near misses, and I corrected you on that point.

No, I was stating that you were invoking other elements like twilight to explain quakes that didn't quite fit the center line hypothesis.

 

Quote:One has nothing to do with the other, you are currently trying to investigate why these quakes occur when the terminator zones come into contact with my crosses.  Whilst you are doing that, I am trying to investigate other avenues related to the terminator with respect to a trigger.

Exactly and the program works. Now I just need a big enough sample of random date/times to establish the probability of a hit.

Quote:Two events occurred yesterday; M 5.6 Uttaranchal, India 17:03:06 ut  Sunset on 25' 36' E - 22' 19' S (7th Jan) at 17:03 ut
                                              M 5.3 Pacific Antarctic    18:23:23 ut  Dusk on 25' 36' E - 22' 19' S (7th Jan) at 18:23 ut
                                                                                                    Dawn on 163' 59' E - 18' 06' N (12th Jan) at 18:23 ut

These times are are exactly to the minute on these bearings, the sunset cross for India was hit again 1 hour 20 minutes later by Dusk, relating to the Pacific Antarctic event. It wasn't 1 hour 16 minutes, or 26 minutes past, they both occurred at the exact lateral width of the terminator zone at this point.  Or to look at it from another perspective, If I had selected locations 2 or 3 degrees East or West of these crosses current positions, there would be no contacts !.   From my point of view as a non Scientist, this appears to be significant, because it is happening everyday ... from your point of view it is chance !.   Its not practical to keep updating this, so I will make report after the next new moon.

What you need to do is calculate this for ALL quakes. The hit/miss ratio is important.

Quote:You are correct, when the sun is on the equator, illumination is pole to pole and 180 degrees in longitude.  But this only occurs on two days of the year.  When the sun reaches the equator on 20th March 10:28 ut during its Northward journey, it is spring equinox.  When it again reaches the the equator on its Southward journey on 22nd September at 20:00 ut, it is the autumn equinox.  The Earth is tilted to the celestial plane by 23.5 degrees, and that's why during the rest of the year, the angle of the terminator changes daily.  I can't guarantee these facts are correct, because  I haven't been following astronomy for sometime ... but I think this is how it works.

Yes, that's correct and the sunrise line is 90 degrees from the subsolar point.

Quote:All that matters here is determining significance of signal, any idea's I have in the future, I shall keep to myself because they only seem to cause confusion.

Wrong. Discussing these things is how understanding grows. Keep it up.

Roger

Duffy;

I revised the program which uses mag 6+ quakes as random times and looks for mag 5+ quakes within 30 days.

This time I restricted a hit to +/- 0.25 degree and found that 59 of the 153 test cases had a hit. That's a little over 25% I also accepted only one hit per date because multiple hits confuse the math (and me).

Now the wider the hit band the more hits you get which is why I objected to your including twilight hits.

The point here is that the things you are talking about do happen by chance so if you think it's significant you have to show it's happening a LOT more than chance.

ADDENDUM:

Another version of the program started with Jan 1, 2016 and ran thru Jan 20, 2017 by using the date as a signal time and checking the quakes for 30 days looking for hits. 1.5 days is added and the cycle starts again.

There were 257 days selected this way and 116 hits wwere found. That's 41%

Roger