[Duffy]

(10-15-2016, 12:25 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:

(10-15-2016, 11:00 AM)Duffy Wrote:

(10-08-2016, 07:51 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:

(10-08-2016, 07:20 PM)Duffy Wrote:

(10-08-2016, 03:54 PM)Duffy Wrote: Hi Roger

The following series of co-ordinates is an example of how I determine location for predictions, this particular one is on going prediction J28 Panama 77' 43' W - South Sumatra 103' 40' E.  Abbreviations LL, RL, CS represent left limb, right limb, centre sun etc, in reference to a 2D map. To date, a 4.2 has occurred in Panama this morning 08:19 ut at bearing 78' 38' W. Small event but it may indicate 103' E as the prime target, the next data set may give an example of this conclusion. The times in the left column relate to structures or for simplicity spikes in my recordings during the past week.

1st Oct 16:24 ut      CS 68' 38' W     LL 76' 08' W     RL 61' 08' W
                             CM 60' 37' W    LL 67' 53' W     RL 53' 21' W

2nd Oct 04:54 ut     CS 103' 49' E    LL 94' 19' E      RL 111' 19' E
                             CM 117' 20' E   LL 110' 04' E     RL 123' 36' E

            16:34 ut     CS 71' 13' W     LL 78' 43' W     RL 63' 43' W
                             CM 52' 34' W    LL 59' 50' W      RL 45' 18' W

             17:30 ut    CS 85' 13' W     LL 92' 43' W     RL 77' 43' W
                             CM 66' 10' W    LL 73' 26' W     RL 58' 54' W

3rd Oct 07:06 ut      CS 70' 44' E     LL 63' 14' E       RL 78' 14' E
                             CM 95' 49' E     LL 88' 33' E       RL 103' 05' E

            17:00 ut      CS 77' 47' W    LL 85' 17' W      RL 70' 17' W
                              CM 48' 18 W    LL 55' 34' W      RL 41' 02' W

             18:36 ut     CS 101' 48' W   LL 109' 18' W    RL 94' 18' W
                              CM 71' 36' W    LL 78' 52' W      RL 64' 20' W

4th Oct 17:26 ut       CS 84' 22' W    LL 91' 52' W      RL 76' 52' W
                              CM 43' 52' W    LL 51' 08' W      RL 36' 36' W

            20:15 ut      CS 126' 38' W   LL 134' 08' W     RL 119' 08' W
                              CM 84' 50' W    LL 92' 20' W       RL 77' 20' W

5th Oct 07:34 ut       CS 63' 35' E     LL 56' 05' E         RL 71' 05' E
                              CM 110' 35' E   LL 103' 19' E       RL 117' 51' E

The prime number here is 77' W, but you have to allow a small margin to include high 76's and low 78's. You also have to take into account the opposite longitude of 103' E, plus the bearings either side of this. This method gives you a preliminary result of 50/50 for a true or opposite longitude location, further data can refine this to the correct longitude.

The following are the times you requested to test your program. They relate to prediction J15 ... 16' E - 164' 10' W which resulted as a 5.3 in Alaska at bearing 162' 49' W.  If it works correctly, you should see numerous hits on 16' E, which is a little deceiving as the event was on the opposite longitude. That's why Panama is strongly suggestive the main event is likely to be South Sumatra. Neither 164' W or 16' E have appeared in my data since 1st October, day of the Alaska event.

15th Sept ... 21:40 ut ... 22:07 ut

16th Sept ... 10:18 ut ... 10:52 ut

18th Sept ... 10:15 ut

24th Sept ... 17:32 ut

25th Sept ... 10:49 ut

26th Sept ... 10:15 ut ... 19:40 ut

28th Sept ... 09:22 ut

1st Oct ....... 10:44 ut

1st Oct ... Event occurred at 22:08 ut

I thought I would include the following times to see if your program can determine a possible 50/50 longitude which I have not yet posted, and allow 30 days to see if it results in a hit. The down side of this method is, it is not yet possible to determine magnitude by the strength of the spikes, so one cannot differentiate between a 4 or a 5. However, I am predicting on the assumption that the more hits I get on a particular bearing, the stronger the event is likely to be, I believe the following will be in the 5+ range.

1st Oct ... 09:46 ut ... 10:44 ut

2nd Oct ... 22:48 ut

3rd Oct ... 21:22 ut ... 22:22 ut

4th Oct ... 09:49 ut ... 11:52 ut ... 21:56 ut

5th Oct ... 00:18 ut

6th Oct ... 01:37 ut

I'll add more to this if and when I get it.

Duffy

......................................................................

Update ...

7th Oct ... 10:21 ut ... 15:10 ut

8th Oct ... 09:18 ut ... 15:30 ut

Ok Duffy, the first part is what I needed; time and locations for sun and moon.
I'll get back to you on this.

First I have to convert to decimal degrees.

Roger

Roger

Your prime number came up !

1st Oct  09:46 ut ..... CS     30' 53' E
            10:44 ut ..... RLM   29' 10' E

2nd Oct 22:48 ut ..... LLM  150' 36' W

3rd Oct  21:22 ut ..... LLS   150' 48' W
             22:22 ut ..... RLS  150' 48' W

4th Oct  09:49 ut .....   CS    29' 54' E
             11:52 ut ..... LLM    29' 51' E
             21:56 ut .....   CS   151'53' W

5th Oct   00:18 ut ..... LLM   151' 01' W

6th Oct   01:37 ut .....  CM    151' 48' W

7th Oct  10:21 ut ...... RLS      29' 11' E
             15:10 ut ..... RLM     29' 53' E

8th Oct  09:18 ut ...... LLS      29' 52' E
             15:30 ut ......  CM      29' 53' E
............................................................

M 5.3 120 km NNW of Eregli, Turkey  08:18 ut 15th Oct at bearing 30' 43' E

Duffy

Never mind the little ones, there was a 6.4 a little while ago.

Those are the ones we want.

Roger

Good reason why I can't tell the big ones from the little ones !

I got a 5.8 only three days ago in that region.

Brian has just shown how multiple predictions would be received, especially in a highly active regions.

Is this a test ?


Duffy