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08-10-2014, 01:41 AM
I've finally finished evaluating David Nabhan's prediction ideas, thanks to considerable help from Skywise and helpful comments from Dr Vidale.
Nabhan's claims of correlations with moon phases and perigees are simply wrong. The hits on those things are totally at chance level.
Dawn and dusk hits were another matter. They happen far more often than chance would allow and when that happens, something is amiss.
Aftershocks were the obvious choice. They don't follow normal rules but the usual method of elimination didn't solve the problem. There were not that many big quakes in the area.
What finally worked was to eliminate quakes within a day after any quake that was aso within a degree distant from the previous quake.
What was happening was small sequences of mag 5 quakes at random times lasting long enough to hit one of the windows. Once these were removes, the peaks vanish.
If anyone is interested in seeing the actual data that supports my conclusion, please contact me. It's a bit too much to post here.
Roger
Nabhan's claims of correlations with moon phases and perigees are simply wrong. The hits on those things are totally at chance level.
Dawn and dusk hits were another matter. They happen far more often than chance would allow and when that happens, something is amiss.
Aftershocks were the obvious choice. They don't follow normal rules but the usual method of elimination didn't solve the problem. There were not that many big quakes in the area.
What finally worked was to eliminate quakes within a day after any quake that was aso within a degree distant from the previous quake.
What was happening was small sequences of mag 5 quakes at random times lasting long enough to hit one of the windows. Once these were removes, the peaks vanish.
If anyone is interested in seeing the actual data that supports my conclusion, please contact me. It's a bit too much to post here.
Roger