[Roger Hunter]

(06-07-2014, 11:57 AM)Island Chris Wrote: I think your math is wrong. You have "52*6 days which is 312/365 "
But it is 6 days per month, not 6 days per week, so should be 12*6=72,
and odds should be 72/365.25

Aaaaaagh!

You're right. I broke my own rule about letting the computer do the math

Within 3 hours is 6 hours. Twice a day is 12 hours.
Odds on a hit are 0.500
Expected number of hits is 319

There were 638 quakes and 279 were within 3 hours of dawn or dusk.

Quakes per hour (local time)
33 21 26 27 35 22 30 30 16 21 26 28 33 29 33 33 22 21 22 27 27 30 23 23

There were 1014 new or full moons during this period.
Odds on a moon hit are .203
Expected number of moon hits is 130

There were 638 quakes and 124 were within 36 hours of a new or full moon.

Quote:But, first post from you in a long time, so Hello.

back at'cha!

Roger

(06-05-2014, 12:26 AM)Roger Hunter Wrote: Well, new/full moons happen every 2 weeks. 36 hours is 1.5 days or 3 days in all (+/-) so those windows are 52*6 days which is 312/365 so the odds on a hit are 0.855. Pretty hard to miss. He should have 545 hits, not 124.