[Duffy]

(12-22-2016, 11:08 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:

(12-22-2016, 10:38 PM)Duffy Wrote: Roger

I thought I would give you something for Christmas, in thanks for your encouraging words shall we say !  

Azores Cape St. Vincent Ridge ... 15' 54' W by 35' 56' N +/- 1' ... 4.5 - 5.5 ... 30 days from time of this post

This is basically a small test to determine the value of individual history of a location, against statistical analysis of multitudes.  According to the records I have sourced, the last two events above mag 4 in this region happened in August this year. They occurred at 11 and 12 degrees longitude respectively.  Last event before this was a 4.4 in March 2015, it is also the last event on 15 degrees west, related to said ridge.  So from my perspective, using a 30 day window at this location, would not favour certainty of success. History here speaks for itself, period of event seems to justify period of window.   Using the same window in the Kermadec's works against me, only because it is a very active region ... individual location doesn't count here.  

Because I have addressed this location, and should the event occur ... it should imply a certain skill factor was involved in it's determination, weather the data is understood or not, specifically because of it's history.  Circumstance cheats me any accreditation  because I have to track the multitudes to find true events, and in doing so, it lowers my percentage of success. I am currently working on a new system which I hope will tip the balance in my favour, should be online in spring.

Signals from this location are pretty strong and constant, so I figure 90% on this one, the down side is, this could be an event in the Atlantic or an " actual " event in Iceland !!

I know your not my enemy, I wouldn't be giving a gift if you were ... hope you don't have to wait 30 days to unwrap it !
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thanks for the kind words Duffy, I appreciate them. Most predictors hate to be evaluated and it affects the evaluator too.

a quick search of that tiny area for quakes in the 3.0 to 6.5 range turned up 18 cases from 1988 to 2008 so if you hit this one I'll definitely be interested but one is just a fluke - maybe. You'll need many more that good to establish credibility.

Roger

M 4.3 Azores-Cape St. Vincent Ridge 07:01:00 ut 6th March ... 16' 06' W - 37' 18' N ... 43 days after expiry

Roger;

Happy belated Christmas ... for what it's worth!

Duffy