[Roger Hunter]

(03-03-2017, 05:49 PM)Duffy Wrote: I have not completed all the results yet, because the time needed to guarantee accuracy is more than I originally envisioned.  I am still working on the B's but results for the R's are to follow.  I decided the best way to represent this was to relist the relevant events as they happened.  For the purpose of comparison, I have included my original test numbers to show any association where applicable ... after all, they do represent a kind of blueprint .  The selections are deemed as random, and though a margin of 0.75 degrees per terminator threshold has been used, it is still likely that some correlation between different selections will be inevitable ... or should it be so ! 

15th Feb M 5.2 Kepulauan Talaud, Indonesia ..................... 14:07:28 ut
              Sunrise on bearing 120' 54' W - 11' 36' S (R16) .... 14:08 ut
              Dusk on bearing 77' 55' E - 16' 03' N (R4) ............ 14:08 ut

15th Feb M 5.5 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia ...................... 19:47:06 ut
              Sunset on bearing 17' 55' W - 17' 52' S (R18) ....... 19:47 ut
              Sunset on bearing 16' 23' W - 21' 33' S (12th Jan).. 19:47 ut *
              Sunrise on bearing 154' 29' E - 3' 10' S (18th Jan).. 19:48 ut *

15th Feb M 5.1 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia ....................... 19:53:26 ut
              CS on bearing 114' 50' W (R23)
              Sunrise on bearing 154' 29' E - 3' 10' S (18th Jan).. 19:53 ut *

16th Feb M 5.2 Offshore Coquimbo, Chile ............................ 07:02:05 ut
              Sunrise on bearing 14' 0' W - 11' 48' S (R15) ......... 07:03 ut
              Sunrise on bearing 17' 55' W - 17' 52' S (R18) ....... 07:03 ut
              CS on bearing 78' 0' E (R4)
              Sunrise on bearing 16' 23' W - 21' 33' S (12th Jan).. 07:02 ut *
              Sunset on bearing 163' 59' E - 18' 06' N (12th Jan).. 07:03 ut *

16th Feb M 5.1 Fiji Region ................................................... 12:10:00 ut
               Dusk on bearing 112' 06' E - 9' 46' S (R19) ............ 12:10 ut
               Sunrise on bearing 88' 02' W - 12' 17' N (R10) ....... 12:11 ut

16th Feb M 5.1 Pagan Region, Northern Mariana Islands ........ 21:44:05 ut
              CM on bearing 103' 41' E (R2)

17th Feb M 5.2 Papua, Indonesia .......................................... 11:21:26 ut
              Dusk on bearing 126' 33' E - 14' 57' S (R5) .............. 11:22 ut
              Dawn on bearing 92' 26' W - 18' 47' N (R6) ............. 11:21 ut
              Dawn on bearing 100' 51' W - 20' 23' S (18th Jan) ... 11:21 ut * 

18th Feb M 6.3 Jujuy, Argentina .............................................12:10:14 ut
              Sunrise on bearing 88' 02' W - 12' 17' N (R10) ......... 12:11 ut
              Dusk on bearing 112' 06' E - 9' 46' S (R19) .............. 12:10 ut

19th Feb M 5.1 Sunda Strait, Indonesia .................................. 15:14:10 ut
              Sunset on bearing 48' 23' E - 17' 59' S (R22) ............ 15:15 ut
              Dusk on bearing 67' 48' E - 14' 54' S (R7) ................ 15:14 ut

20th Feb M 5.0 Santa Cruz Islands ......................................... 03:56:46 ut
              Sunset on bearing 148' 53' W - 18' 41' N (R8) .......... 03:56 ut

20th Feb M 5.3 Northern Peru ................................................ 07:45:11 ut
              Sunrise on bearing 27' 15' W - 15' 45' S (R3) ............ 07:45 ut
              CS on bearing 67' 08' E (R7)

20th Feb M 5.4 Fiji Region ..................................................... 23:55:48 ut
              Sunset on bearing 88' 02' W - 12' 17' N (R10) .......... 23:56 ut
              Sunset on bearing 82' 43' W - 12' 46' S (R11) .......... 23:56 ut

21st Feb M 6.5 Chuquisaca, Bolivia ........................................ 14:09:04 ut
              Sunrise on bearing 120' 54' W - 11' 36' S (R16) ........ 14:09 ut
              Dusk on bearing 77' 55' E - 16' 03' N (R4) ................ 14:09 ut
              CS on bearing 28' 52' W (R14)

22nd Feb M 5.3 Scotia Sea ..................................................... 08:25:34 ut
               CS on bearing 56' 59' E (R17)

23rd Feb M 5.2 Pacific Antarctic Ridge .................................... 00:42:15 ut
              Sunrise on bearing 80' 0' E - 11' 53' S (R13) ............. 00:42 ut

23rd Feb M 5.6 Eastern New Guinea Region, P.N.G. ................ 15:11:05 ut 
              Sunset on bearing 48' 23' E - 17' 59' S (R22) ............ 15:12 ut
              Dusk on bearing 67' 48' E - 14' 54' S (R7) ................. 15:11 ut

23rd Feb M 5.0 North of Severnaya, Zemlya ............................ 20:13:40 ut
              Sunset on bearing 27' 15' W - 15' 45' S (R3) ............. 20:14 ut
              CS on bearing 120' 06' W (R16)
              Sunrise on bearing 149' 38' E - 5' 22' N (6th Jan) ...... 20:14 ut *
              Sunset on bearing 24' 57' W - 19' 04' S (24th Jan) .... 20:13 ut *
              Dawn on bearing 134' 20' E - 9' 55' N (7th Jan) ......... 20:13 ut *

24th Feb M 5.3 South Sandwich Islands ................................... 05:59:06 ut
              Dawn on bearing 17' 55' W - 17' 52' S (R18) .............. 05:59 ut
              Sunset on bearing 171' 50' W - 20' 20' S (18th Jan) .... 05:59 ut *

24th Feb M 5.0 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia ............................ 08:22:36 ut
               CS on bearing 57' 39' E (R17)
               Dusk on bearing 163' 59' E - 18' 06' N (12th Jan) ....... 08:22 ut *

25th Feb M 5.0 Kep. Tanimbar, Indonesia ................................. 01:11:38 ut
              Sunrise on bearing 77' 55' E - 16' 03 N (R4) ................ 01:11 ut
              Dusk on bearing 88' 02' W - 12' 17' N (R10) ................ 01:12 ut
              Dusk on bearing 82' 43' W - 12' 46' S (R11) ................ 01:11 ut
              Sunset on bearing 100' 51' W - 20' 23' S (18th Jan) ..... 01:11 ut *

25th Feb M 5.2 Tarapaca, Chile ................................................. 02:31:23 ut
              Sunset on bearing 120' 54' W - 11' 36' S (R16) ............. 02:31 ut
              CM on bearing 126' 53' E (R5)
              Dusk on bearing 100' 51' W - 20' 23' S (18th Jan) ......... 02:31 ut *

26th Feb M 5.5 Vanuatu ............................................................. 06:44:21 ut
              CM on bearing 78' 04' E (R4)
              Sunset on bearing 175' 50' E - 21' 07' S (15th Jan) ........ 06:45 ut *

26th Feb M 5.1 Atacama, Chile .................................................... 08:59:16 ut
              CS on bearing 48' 24' E (R22)
              CS on bearing 48' 24' E (25th Jan) *


Duration of test .................................... 11 days 2 hours 40 minutes
Number of quakes ................................ 45 

Centre Sun .......... 8
Centre Moon ........ 3
Sunrise ................ 9
Sunset ................. 8
Dawn ................... 2
Dusk .................... 9
                         .........
               Total    39 hits

Results after dis-association

Centre Sun ........... 3
Centre Moon ......... 1
Sunrise ................. 6
Sunset .................. 5
Dawn .................... 0
Dusk ..................... 6
                         .........
                Total    21 hits

Roger;

You are under no obligation to reveal how you acquired your random selection, but your results show there is good reason to investigate this further.  I have been doing this for many hours per day over the last six months, so I am familiar with how this kind of sequence can be put together. When I am predicting, I can generally find a good signal in a 10 degree corridor of longitude, because seismic activity from pole to pole is less frequent, making good radio resolution possible for independent detection.   In contrast, a 10 degree corridor in latitude is very hard to work, because in most cases detection of new anomalies is impeded by traces of residual energy left over from prior seismic events.  It inevitably gives a false reading, and that is why sometimes I use to re-adjust my predictions several days later to compensate. 

I have found using the "time and date" map makes it easy to calculate scenarios. To save on a lot of calculations whilst testing random numbers, I found it easier to input a time on the map, put a couple of dots on the terminator thresholds, and then just move the sun under the dots to get the bearings.  Its one of the very few programs I have found that can give a pretty good representation of the terminator. The only drawback is it doesn't seem to accept odd numbers in the minute box, and nothing at all in the seconds ... that might be just my system though!

If your random selection still shows association with the original numbers, then these are "good" results.

Sorry to keep you waiting


Duffy

Duffy;

You're missing the point.

If one can get good results with random selections that proves your method is false.

This happens when the probability is so high that any date can give a hit.

You're making it worse by adding extra indicators, thus increasing the number of hits.

Meanwhile I'm going nuts trying to get this program to work. I thought I had it for a while but it didn't last.

But I seldom give up.

Roger