[Roger Hunter]

(02-02-2017, 04:21 PM)Duffy Wrote: Duffy

Quote:I cannot give verification on this, the necessary data is no longer on my screen because I am formulating a prediction, based on my own findings. I would also have to check each of the 147 events manually, which would be to time consuming.  But here are a few facts you should consider ...

Without including my formula, the moon only has a centre positional link on my bearings, at the time an event occurred.  It has no relevance with the terminator zones in this experiment, I omitted it from the results for this reason.

I'm not testing your test, I'm testing your method, the one we went over a bunch of times until I finally understood it.

Quote:The closest event, related to time of sunrise/ sunset on these bearings was only 4 degrees distance, the furthest was 112 degrees. So there is no relation to 90 degrees with any of these cases.  The time and location of these events have no 90 degree relation with the suns position e.g  16th Jan 15:06:36 ut .. M 5.4 Tamimbar, Indonesia ... Sunset on bearing 54' 29' E - 22' 27' S (6th Jan) occurred at 15:07 ut.  It was the middle of the night in Tanimbar at 15:07 ut, with approximately 7 hours to sunrise. So a 90 degree standard would not work, because each individual case is different.

But your thesis is that quakes happen when the sunrise/sunset line crosses the previous location of the sun or moon. That's what the 90 degree distance is supposed to indicate.

Quote:As I have described above, I believe this to be periodic and the reason I ran the test after the 15th, and not before. I don't know why you keep referring to 30 days ... because the test was carried out over 11 days.

It's the length of your window, has been all along.

Quote: I can "accumulate" up to 30 days worth of data before I place a prediction, but I don't know if or when the prediction will mature. But just as you can derive a forecast for a specific location timed in years, I do similar with my signals.  If I keep getting signal hits on a particular bearing, I can go back in my data and match similar hits. The mere fact that the signal is in my data suggests something may occur within a short period of detection, that's why I use 30 day windows.  But the data in the table is a different kind of signal to the ones I use for prediction. There have been no earthquakes on any of these bearings during the course of this test, in fact, there have been no earthquakes on these bearings at any time during January. So they appear to have no prediction value, except for the fact that they seem to have a sunrise / sunset relation to 5+ earthquakes.

And that's what I'm testing; DO they really or is it just chance.

Quote:A small example of what I learned from the last batch ...

 3rd Dec 22:57:02 ut ... 5.2 Pacific Antarctic Ridge .... DT
 8th Dec 20:49:28 ut ... 5.0 Solomon Islands ............ NT 
11th Dec 20:57:55 ut ... 5.3 South of Fiji .................. NT
19th Dec 21:18:33 ut ... 5.0 Guatemala .................... NT
20th Dec 01:57:44 ut ... 5.1 New Ireland Region ....... SR
23rd Dec 22:32:18 ut ... 5.0 New Britain Region ........ DT
27th Dec 22:38:06 ut ... 5.2 New Ireland Region ....... DT

The day and night terminator symbols shown here, have nothing to do with the listed locations, but they are related to the dates and times. They refer to Terminator zone times at bearing 31' 08' E - 48' 10' S ... on the Bain Fracture Zone, South of Africa, the same bearing I used in my D16 prediction.  The actual event occurred on 23rd Jan 07:13:40 ut at bearing 30' 58' E - 48' 54' S. You can see from this list, it is possible to source one kind of data up to 7 week prior to the event, using the same method we are currently trying to test now. Combining this with my own signals and space data, it is possible to determine a location.  If you want to look into this deeper, it was also sunrise on bearing 177' 30' W - 30' 18' S at 07:13 ut 23rd Jan on the epicentre of the 5.8 Kermadec Islands quake 6 days later ... the list goes on !

Please, I'm confused enough as it is!

Quote:I can not foresee how your 90 degree method is going to work in this case, but I will give some thought to other options you can test. I am currently working on a possible anomaly in the Sea of Marmara, Western Turkey.  My track record on multiple predictions has not been good lately, I get a few hits, and a 7.9 in NZ shuts the rest down. I get a few hits on the next batch, and a 7.9 in P.N.G. shuts the rest down again.  I had 5 hits in the current batch, until the 7.3 in the Celebes Sea occurred on the 10th.  No events had any connection with my bearings for a period after New moon, does this not show some kind of "aspect change" is affecting the relationships ... just like on the 15th Jan !  There are exceptions to this, which I am still investigating, but D16 South of Africa and D24 Western Xizang, recorded more Day / night terminator contacts than sunrise/sunset contacts ... does this have any meaning ?

No, it looks more like chance fluctuations to me.

Quote:Finally, may I suggest you continue testing this tomorrow, because I believe it is "groundhog Day" in the US ... is it not ?.  You are for all intense and purpose testing shadows, and I fear another 6 weeks of this will finish me off.   Or if I was to address how things are portrayed in the "Bill Murray" film of the same name, you will find my bearings will get thousands of hits and write them off as meaningless   . 

No but if you keep changing the situation around this way I'll have to give up out of simple frustration.

Roger