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03-25-2016, 10:45 PM
This prediction was a little different to my usual method, as I was mostly using data I had sourced from online sites. I had already mentioned in a previous post about the possibility of determining the onset of a seismic event using easily available real-time data .. and on 21st March, I found an opportunity to do so.
At 08:50 ut on the 21st, my main system recorded a compression in the signal .. at 09:50 ut, a large spike was generated in the 1060-1900 keV range, on the EPAMp screen of the Ace real-time solar wind data, this also caused a distinct aspect change to data on the SWEPAM screen. As it is the case with my own data upon recording anomalies, I noted the Sun's position of longitude, which at this time was 34' 16' E. At 21:20 ut, the Ace data recorded a structure in the 115-195 and 47-68 keV range, with a peak at 21:50 ut, the Suns position was now 145' 46' W ( this corresponds to 2 arc minutes short of opposite longitude from the previous data). I then sourced further data from Spaceweatherlive.com who display a real-time magnetometer stackplot monitor .. it's main purpose being to provide information about the strength and range of the Northern Auroral oval, relative to latitude per station. I noted that magnetic readings were being recorded at lower levels, leaving the higher levels relatively undisturbed, assuming I was reading this correctly, I came to the conclusion that something other than the aurora may be responsible. Combining this with my own data which showed weak structure, indicative of a Southern hemisphere anomaly, I decided to gamble, and post my prediction.
On the 22nd, a similarly large spike was again generated in the 1060-1900 keV range at 09:55 ut .. again, I noted the Sun's position as 32' 57' E, and the aspect change re-occurred in the SWEPAM data at the same time. At 10:56 ut, an Earthquake of 4.8 magnitude occurred in Tanzania at 35' 54' E longitude, and a further event of 4.5 magnitude, class 111 occurred in the Cyprus region at 13:25 ut bearing 31' 50'E.
Going by the book .. There is nothing of consequence here, to suggest this prediction has any validation, I would imagine there is a low probability value for the African states, but as I stated, I tried a different method this time, and it didn't pay off. I increased the time period because my own data showed signal levels rising, but nothing has occurred in the time I set. So to conclude .. the only event of significance here, is dropping my coffee when Tanzania popped up on my screen, So I declare this prediction as a "miss", but from my own perspective, it was a personal achievement that I hope to repeat again in the future
The Ace data I mentioned was in 6 hour format, and I'm not sure if it's retrievable in the archives, but I have saved said data to memory in case anybody would like me to post it. Also, the aspect change in the SWEPAM data was still occurring up to aprox 09:50 ut today (25th March) which I regard as signifying the anomaly this prediction was based on remains at 32' E longitude, which I will undoubtedly predict on again should my own data give a more un-questionable reason to do so. I welcome assistance if anybody has an alternate interpretation of the data mentioned .. it seems to fit the picture, but I cannot rule out variables regarding orbital changes or data format displays relating to the Ace satellite.
Thank you
Duffy,
At 08:50 ut on the 21st, my main system recorded a compression in the signal .. at 09:50 ut, a large spike was generated in the 1060-1900 keV range, on the EPAMp screen of the Ace real-time solar wind data, this also caused a distinct aspect change to data on the SWEPAM screen. As it is the case with my own data upon recording anomalies, I noted the Sun's position of longitude, which at this time was 34' 16' E. At 21:20 ut, the Ace data recorded a structure in the 115-195 and 47-68 keV range, with a peak at 21:50 ut, the Suns position was now 145' 46' W ( this corresponds to 2 arc minutes short of opposite longitude from the previous data). I then sourced further data from Spaceweatherlive.com who display a real-time magnetometer stackplot monitor .. it's main purpose being to provide information about the strength and range of the Northern Auroral oval, relative to latitude per station. I noted that magnetic readings were being recorded at lower levels, leaving the higher levels relatively undisturbed, assuming I was reading this correctly, I came to the conclusion that something other than the aurora may be responsible. Combining this with my own data which showed weak structure, indicative of a Southern hemisphere anomaly, I decided to gamble, and post my prediction.
On the 22nd, a similarly large spike was again generated in the 1060-1900 keV range at 09:55 ut .. again, I noted the Sun's position as 32' 57' E, and the aspect change re-occurred in the SWEPAM data at the same time. At 10:56 ut, an Earthquake of 4.8 magnitude occurred in Tanzania at 35' 54' E longitude, and a further event of 4.5 magnitude, class 111 occurred in the Cyprus region at 13:25 ut bearing 31' 50'E.
Going by the book .. There is nothing of consequence here, to suggest this prediction has any validation, I would imagine there is a low probability value for the African states, but as I stated, I tried a different method this time, and it didn't pay off. I increased the time period because my own data showed signal levels rising, but nothing has occurred in the time I set. So to conclude .. the only event of significance here, is dropping my coffee when Tanzania popped up on my screen, So I declare this prediction as a "miss", but from my own perspective, it was a personal achievement that I hope to repeat again in the future
The Ace data I mentioned was in 6 hour format, and I'm not sure if it's retrievable in the archives, but I have saved said data to memory in case anybody would like me to post it. Also, the aspect change in the SWEPAM data was still occurring up to aprox 09:50 ut today (25th March) which I regard as signifying the anomaly this prediction was based on remains at 32' E longitude, which I will undoubtedly predict on again should my own data give a more un-questionable reason to do so. I welcome assistance if anybody has an alternate interpretation of the data mentioned .. it seems to fit the picture, but I cannot rule out variables regarding orbital changes or data format displays relating to the Ace satellite.
Thank you
Duffy,