[Island Chris]

Hi all,

Not for earthquakes. I've been thinking for months, and telling people, that Winter at the Island, in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, will be colder than last winter, although likely will not be cold for as long. For Winter 2013-2014, the coldest temperature I saw for Newport airport was -1F (my Arctic Sea Smoke Post), and there was no sea ice in the open bay. Back in the late 70s the outgoing tide against the Jamestown Bridge would slice ice up into giant rectangles. I never saw solid ice here in the lower (south) bay, but someone told me people were walking out on it in 1997.

So, I predict, based on almost no science, that the Bay will partly freeze over this coming winter. Could be the last time given climate change!

Chris

[Island Chris]

Not so cold on the Island (NE USA), but is full-blown winter weather for the Midwest for at least the next week). The National Weather service has a graph of what this has meant historically for the winter:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cms...1&source=0

I assume the temperatures are in Degrees F., Not C.

The 1976 fall winter were also exceptional in the NE USA: rivers and bays froze over at least as far south is Delaware Bay, and geese were frozen in the ice. Pittsburgh had trouble with natural gas supplies because the rivers froze over.

Again, there was only 1% science in my "prediction" above, but if November continues extremely cold, then the link is "science": 10 colder winters and 6 warmer winters, with the bigger extremes being on the cold side.

Chris

Chris

[Island Chris]

I claim full success for my short-term climate/long-term weather forecast above of August 8, 2015.

The Bay (Narragansett Bay) has been partly frozen on and off for the last week; see 2 pictures below. It should be even more frozen tomorrow and the next day on the outgoing tide; this tide range is the largest of the year; lowest low tides.

I don't think this will be the last time the Bay will freeze like this, but I think it is fairly rare, and late this century, will become really rare, and may never happen next century.

(08-08-2014, 11:23 PM)Island Chris Wrote: So, I predict, based on almost no science, that the Bay will partly freeze over this coming winter. Could be the last time given climate change!

Chris

[Skywise]

I was wondering how things were out there. Was planning to ask but see you've already posted.

I bet you're wishing you were out here in LA? We're already "springing". Everything is green, flowers blooming, birds singing....

I like to joke that LA has only two seasons - summer, of course, and "fwintering" which zips by so fast you'll miss it if you blink long enough.

Brian

[Island Chris]

I suppose everything is green there if you water it enough! I checked the water levels of Lake Cachuma above Santa Barbara on line a week or 2 ago, and it was 28%. I then talked to someone and he said they can't get the last 25% out because the outlet etc is not low enough (so they are working frantically on that). At the time, there was between 60% and 80% of normal water year rainfall for the date, but since it has not rained, and there is no rain in forecast, will be more like 45-65% of normal by end of February.

I lived in Goleta 1988-1994, through the last big drought, and it was beyond dry; was desiccated. I'll take winter (actually, I've always loved winter, although all the -25 F wind chills are a bit brutal (is -17 wind chill right now).

Chris