This prediction is a hit already; a quake near Honshu Japan at 10:00:58 UTC
That's cutting it a little too close for comfort.
Roger
As Mr. Spock would say.... intriguing.
Brian
Hi Guys;
Not holding much hope for this one, more like a test run, not usually that confident without both systems running. Solar storm started at 10:00 UT, could be this, in my haste I forgot to check OOP's!.
Took me 10 minutes to load image and text, and 40 minutes before prediction table stopped rejecting my imput!, originally typed 10:30 UT for start and finish time (48 hours from when disruption started in image), post reply came out as 10:00 UT on both counts.
The mag 6 to 7 is right, still can't find the 10:00:58 UT quake in Honshu, Japan, only the 10:13:54 on 21st (yesterday), unless it was Roger's washing machine ?.
Main system back online today, done a bit more revamping, might even pickup Roger's washing machine .
Hope prediction table works ok next time, because at the moment as McCoy would say
"It's dead Jim"
Duffy;
Not sure weather I got a hit today, but I think I'll hit the bottle instead, thought I'd try a "Tequila" !!!.
Duffy
H Duffy;
You found the right quake. I was typing from memory, always a mistake with me.
There was another one in Mexico today. No signal on that one?
Roger
Hi Roger,
I'm afraid your getting me a little confused, I post a prediction, which the script gave me endless fun with, it appeared to have a glitch that Brian confirmed, and I corrected the start time to 10:30 UT in the next post. The Honshu, Japan quake occured 16 minutes before my corrected start time, and 9 hours 55 minutes before the prediction was posted. And if memory serves me right, I don't think they drink Tequila in Japan.
(02-22-2015, 02:10 AM)Skywise Wrote: As Mr. Spock would say.... intriguing.
Brian
Hi Guys;
Not holding much hope for this one, more like a test run, not usually that confident without both systems running. Solar storm started at 10:00 UT, could be this, in my haste I forgot to check OOP's!.
Took me 10 minutes to load image and text, and 40 minutes before prediction table stopped rejecting my imput!, originally typed 10:30 UT for start and finish time (48 hours from when disruption started in image), post reply came out as 10:00 UT on both counts.
The mag 6 to 7 is right, still can't find the 10:00:58 UT quake in Honshu, Japan, only the 10:13:54 on 21st (yesterday), unless it was Roger's washing machine ?.
Main system back online today, done a bit more revamping, might even pickup Roger's washing machine .
Hope prediction table works ok next time, because at the moment as McCoy would say
"It's dead Jim"
Duffy;
Not sure weather I got a hit today, but I think I'll hit the bottle instead, thought I'd try a "Tequila" !!!.
Duffy
H Duffy;
You found the right quake. I was typing from memory, always a mistake with me.
There was another one in Mexico today. No signal on that one?
Roger
Hi Roger,
I'm afraid your getting me a little confused, I post a prediction, which the script gave me endless fun with, it appeared to have a glitch that Brian confirmed, and I corrected the start time to 10:30 UT in the next post. The Honshu, Japan quake occured 16 minutes before my corrected start time, and 9 hours 55 minutes before the prediction was posted. And if memory serves me right, I don't think they drink Tequila in Japan.
Am I missing something here ??
Duffy
Duffy;
No, if things went as you say, the quake came before you posted so doesn't count.
Not holding much hope for this one, more like a test run, not usually that confident without both systems running. Solar storm started at 10:00 UT, could be this, in my haste I forgot to check OOP's!.
Took me 10 minutes to load image and text, and 40 minutes before prediction table stopped rejecting my imput!, originally typed 10:30 UT for start and finish time (48 hours from when disruption started in image), post reply came out as 10:00 UT on both counts.
The mag 6 to 7 is right, still can't find the 10:00:58 UT quake in Honshu, Japan, only the 10:13:54 on 21st (yesterday), unless it was Roger's washing machine ?.
Main system back online today, done a bit more revamping, might even pickup Roger's washing machine .
Hope prediction table works ok next time, because at the moment as McCoy would say
"It's dead Jim"
Duffy;
Not sure weather I got a hit today, but I think I'll hit the bottle instead, thought I'd try a "Tequila" !!!.
Duffy
H Duffy;
You found the right quake. I was typing from memory, always a mistake with me.
There was another one in Mexico today. No signal on that one?
Roger
Hi Roger,
I'm afraid your getting me a little confused, I post a prediction, which the script gave me endless fun with, it appeared to have a glitch that Brian confirmed, and I corrected the start time to 10:30 UT in the next post. The Honshu, Japan quake occured 16 minutes before my corrected start time, and 9 hours 55 minutes before the prediction was posted. And if memory serves me right, I don't think they drink Tequila in Japan.
Am I missing something here ??
Duffy
Duffy;
No, if things went as you say, the quake came before you posted so doesn't count.
Roger
Ok Roger,
I'll take that as a negative hit, as I mentioned before, I regarded this as a test run and it was my first time.
Still not sure how I failed when I wasn't claiming the Honshu, Japan quake, but I'm still learning the system here and hopefully get the hang of it soon
No hard feelings Roger, there will be other oppotunities, best put the lid back on this Tequila before I get to the worm .
(02-22-2015, 02:54 PM)Duffy Wrote: Not sure weather I got a hit today, but I think I'll hit the bottle instead, thought I'd try a "Tequila" !!!.
Duffy
H Duffy;
You found the right quake. I was typing from memory, always a mistake with me.
There was another one in Mexico today. No signal on that one?
Roger
Hi Roger,
I'm afraid your getting me a little confused, I post a prediction, which the script gave me endless fun with, it appeared to have a glitch that Brian confirmed, and I corrected the start time to 10:30 UT in the next post. The Honshu, Japan quake occured 16 minutes before my corrected start time, and 9 hours 55 minutes before the prediction was posted. And if memory serves me right, I don't think they drink Tequila in Japan.
Am I missing something here ??
Duffy
Duffy;
No, if things went as you say, the quake came before you posted so doesn't count.
Roger
Ok Roger,
I'll take that as a negative hit, as I mentioned before, I regarded this as a test run and it was my first time.
Still not sure how I failed when I wasn't claiming the Honshu, Japan quake, but I'm still learning the system here and hopefully get the hang of it soon
No hard feelings Roger, there will be other oppotunities, best put the lid back on this Tequila before I get to the worm .
Duffy
Duffy;
That's ok, you didn't predict a location so any quake of the right size that followed within the time predicted would be a hit.
But none did. One was too early, the next too late.
I put your predictions into a file as YYYY,MM,DD,HH,MN,YYYY,MM,DD,HH,MN,M1,M2
and check all quakes, looking for a fit.
It really shouldn't be done in real time as NEIC often changes things as new data arrives.
(02-22-2015, 03:18 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote: H Duffy;
You found the right quake. I was typing from memory, always a mistake with me.
There was another one in Mexico today. No signal on that one?
Roger
Hi Roger,
I'm afraid your getting me a little confused, I post a prediction, which the script gave me endless fun with, it appeared to have a glitch that Brian confirmed, and I corrected the start time to 10:30 UT in the next post. The Honshu, Japan quake occured 16 minutes before my corrected start time, and 9 hours 55 minutes before the prediction was posted. And if memory serves me right, I don't think they drink Tequila in Japan.
Am I missing something here ??
Duffy
Duffy;
No, if things went as you say, the quake came before you posted so doesn't count.
Roger
Ok Roger,
I'll take that as a negative hit, as I mentioned before, I regarded this as a test run and it was my first time.
Still not sure how I failed when I wasn't claiming the Honshu, Japan quake, but I'm still learning the system here and hopefully get the hang of it soon
No hard feelings Roger, there will be other oppotunities, best put the lid back on this Tequila before I get to the worm .
Duffy
Duffy;
That's ok, you didn't predict a location so any quake of the right size that followed within the time predicted would be a hit.
But none did. One was too early, the next too late.
I put your predictions into a file as YYYY,MM,DD,HH,MN,YYYY,MM,DD,HH,MN,M1,M2
and check all quakes, looking for a fit.
It really shouldn't be done in real time as NEIC often changes things as new data arrives.
Roger
Roger:
Thanks for opening a file for me, at least I've got my name on something more than just my driving licence. I'm listening to you and Brian because Chris said you were the guys who knew how best to deal with what I have. I private messaged Brian a couple of weeks ago with concerns of my lack of computer literacy, ( didn't want to spoil the quake thread with different subject) amongst other things, he told me as this was an unusual prediction method, I could dispence with the usual prediction formalities and post images and text instead. Unfortunately, the image refused to go unless I filled in the big red boxes that kept flashing before me. Assuming you have the same prediction table on your screen as I have, where it say's End Date End Date 23/02/2015, to start with, is it normal to have End Date twice, took me 20 minutes to get that date in, because it wouldn't allow more than ten characters, and the end date in the box would not delete.
Appologies if yours say's different, it's either an on going glitch in the system, or I've done something wrong from my end. Which could also explain why you said the "second quake was to late", my End Date reads as above which I assumed would mean I was 20 hours 7 minutes within my End time, or 19 hours 37 minutes using glitch time.
I'm sure I mentioned somewhere that location isn't predictable with this method, I can give a 48 hour window, and I'm building up a pattern which gives a rough distance eg. half way round the world or the other side of the world, the former is in radial distance say 10,000km. Magnitude depends on the type of quake, but I'm also building up a pretty good pattern with that. It was only a small disturbance in the image, which I was reluctant to post, were it not for my wife's insistance, but I can imagine how it would have looked if this system had been stationed on a Mexican Beach !!.
Under this sites perameteres, I'm not likely to get a hit, would have been nice, but my main reason for being here is to have witnesses on a public forum, to show the potential of what this could be developed into. Chris was right, I think this is more physics than prediction, and though I'll continue posting images in predictions, I think realistically I should be looking to reasearch and development (can't afford to keep this going without an end goal).
Maybe the next quake signal will be in Hawaii, we could share a coconut , sorry for pulling your leg.
(02-23-2015, 12:23 AM)Duffy Wrote: I private messaged Brian a couple of weeks ago with concerns of my lack of computer literacy, ( didn't want to spoil the quake thread with different subject) amongst other things, he told me as this was an unusual prediction method, I could dispence with the usual prediction formalities and post images and text instead. Unfortunately, the image refused to go unless I filled in the big red boxes that kept flashing before me.
I should clarify. This forum does require certain forms to be filled in. The intent was to force a minimum of quantified data to make a meaningful prediction. That is, from the point of view of us who evaluate predictions. The problem is that there is a looooooooooooong history of folks saying things like "big quake in Japan tomorrow" and then they claim a particular quake as a hit. But what is a "big quake"? What magnitude? M6? M7? M25? Where is "Japan"? What if the quake was 500 miles off shore? Does that count? What does "tomorrow" mean? What if it was a M9 on the southern tip of the Kamchatka Peninsula? Well, technically, that's in Russia, but would be felt in Japan. Does that count? They said "Japan", not "Russia".
I see four options:
1> Leaves things as they are, but then in posts if you don't really mean the data put in the forms, then the poster would have to clearly say so.
Quote:Thanks for opening a file for me, at least I've got my name on something more than just my driving licence.
Oh, more than that. You have a whole subdirectory in my computer.
Quote: I'm listening to you and Brian because Chris said you were the guys who knew how best to deal with what I have. I private messaged Brian a couple of weeks ago with concerns of my lack of computer literacy, ( didn't want to spoil the quake thread with different subject) amongst other things, he told me as this was an unusual prediction method, I could dispence with the usual prediction formalities and post images and text instead.
At this stage, yes. The purpose of the form is to get consistent and unchangeable data but that isn't necessary yet.
Quote: Unfortunately, the image refused to go unless I filled in the big red boxes that kept flashing before me. Assuming you have the same prediction table on your screen as I have, where it say's End Date End Date 23/02/2015, to start with, is it normal to have End Date twice, took me 20 minutes to get that date in, because it wouldn't allow more than ten characters, and the end date in the box would not delete.
I don't know. The images are not important to me. All I care about is date/time/mag at this stage. Let's consider this a learning experience until you're more confident. I'll help by evaluating in real time so you can learn what works best.
Quote:Appologies if yours say's different, it's either an on going glitch in the system, or I've done something wrong from my end. Which could also explain why you said the "second quake was to late", my End Date reads as above which I assumed would mean I was 20 hours 7 minutes within my End time, or 19 hours 37 minutes using glitch time.
No I meant the next quake was outside the window.
Quote:I'm sure I mentioned somewhere that location isn't predictable with this method, I can give a 48 hour window, and I'm building up a pattern which gives a rough distance eg. half way round the world or the other side of the world, the former is in radial distance say 10,000km. Magnitude depends on the type of quake, but I'm also building up a pretty good pattern with that. It was only a small disturbance in the image, which I was reluctant to post, were it not for my wife's insistance, but I can imagine how it would have looked if this system had been stationed on a Mexican Beach !!.
Location can come later, if you can consistently give date and mag.
Quote:Under this sites perameteres, I'm not likely to get a hit, would have been nice, but my main reason for being here is to have witnesses on a public forum, to show the potential of what this could be developed into. Chris was right, I think this is more physics than prediction, and though I'll continue posting images in predictions, I think realistically I should be looking to reasearch and development (can't afford to keep this going without an end goal).
We can help with that but you mustn't object if the answer is "wrong".
(02-23-2015, 12:23 AM)Duffy Wrote: I private messaged Brian a couple of weeks ago with concerns of my lack of computer literacy, ( didn't want to spoil the quake thread with different subject) amongst other things, he told me as this was an unusual prediction method, I could dispence with the usual prediction formalities and post images and text instead. Unfortunately, the image refused to go unless I filled in the big red boxes that kept flashing before me.
I should clarify. This forum does require certain forms to be filled in. The intent was to force a minimum of quantified data to make a meaningful prediction. That is, from the point of view of us who evaluate predictions. The problem is that there is a looooooooooooong history of folks saying things like "big quake in Japan tomorrow" and then they claim a particular quake as a hit. But what is a "big quake"? What magnitude? M6? M7? M25? Where is "Japan"? What if the quake was 500 miles off shore? Does that count? What does "tomorrow" mean? What if it was a M9 on the southern tip of the Kamchatka Peninsula? Well, technically, that's in Russia, but would be felt in Japan. Does that count? They said "Japan", not "Russia".
I see four options:
1> Leaves things as they are, but then in posts if you don't really mean the data put in the forms, then the poster would have to clearly say so.
2> Remove the requirement of the forms.
3> Remove the forms altogether.
4> Make a new forum for "informal predictions".
Input is most appreciated.
Brian
I vote for making the form optional, reserved for format predictions. Duffy is just learning at this point so what he's doing now shouldn't be part of his permanent record.
(02-23-2015, 12:23 AM)Duffy Wrote: I private messaged Brian a couple of weeks ago with concerns of my lack of computer literacy, ( didn't want to spoil the quake thread with different subject) amongst other things, he told me as this was an unusual prediction method, I could dispence with the usual prediction formalities and post images and text instead. Unfortunately, the image refused to go unless I filled in the big red boxes that kept flashing before me.
I should clarify. This forum does require certain forms to be filled in. The intent was to force a minimum of quantified data to make a meaningful prediction. That is, from the point of view of us who evaluate predictions. The problem is that there is a looooooooooooong history of folks saying things like "big quake in Japan tomorrow" and then they claim a particular quake as a hit. But what is a "big quake"? What magnitude? M6? M7? M25? Where is "Japan"? What if the quake was 500 miles off shore? Does that count? What does "tomorrow" mean? What if it was a M9 on the southern tip of the Kamchatka Peninsula? Well, technically, that's in Russia, but would be felt in Japan. Does that count? They said "Japan", not "Russia".
I see four options:
1> Leaves things as they are, but then in posts if you don't really mean the data put in the forms, then the poster would have to clearly say so.
2> Remove the requirement of the forms.
3> Remove the forms altogether.
4> Make a new forum for "informal predictions".
Input is most appreciated.
Brian
Hi Brian;
Had a terrible day yesterday, only hit wrong on two of my own predictions in the past 12 months, then the first one I posted fails dramatically, then I go to bed not fully understanding why (ever tried sleeping with mixed messages in your head). I ended up rising at 4am and went through the days posts and literally found mixed messages.
Rogers last statement of the day said "I mustn't object if the answer is wrong", which I fully agree with and had told him so. I don't want to be seen as a sore looser here, I'm not out to win a prize (the Noble maybe!), the data has been rejected and has already been overwritten in a 24 hour monitoring experiment. Your now talking about altering the prediction format to accomodate data from myself, or others with similar format predictions. I've been here a month now, and spent my time tutoring in VLF with consistancy, and after yesterdays performance, I fear it will be repeated unless I cover a couple of major points that have been over looked in past posts, and an overview of yesterdays dialogue.
The main feature of an image with an EM signal is the EM signal itself, it is the only thing that gives any indication of an impending Earthquake, there fore any VLF prediction can only start from this point. An EM signal never comes after a quake occurance, the energy has been depleated prior to rupture. If an Earthquake occurs at 9:00am and an EM signal appears at 9:30am, the two are not linked, the 9:00am quake will have released its own EM signature up to 48 hours earlier, the next quake after the 9:30am EM signal is linked.
As I've also mentioned in my previous posts, the system only records the primary quake event in a given region, and will not record aftershocks even if the magnitude is greater than the initial quake. The first Earthquake in the Honshu,Japan region occured on 7th Feb 06:19 UT,since then 24 aftershocks have been recorded upto prediction time, including the M6.0 at 10:13 UT on 21st Feb.
Overview of prediction posts
Duffy posted prediction at 8:09pm, comments on problems loading imput and data to site, and mentions the Honshu, Japan quake at 10:13 UT so others would not confuse it with EM signal at 10:30 UT.
12:34am Roger notices script problems regarding minimum magnitude values
12:45am Brian responds and repairs script
12:50am Roger questions possible mag values imputed by Duffy earlier
01:10am Roger tells Duffy about a quake near Honshu,Japan at 10:00:58
02:10am Mr spock arrives
11:10am Duffy notices there has been a glich with script , realises original 10:30 times now read 10:00 so corrects in text, not undully worried as image holds the real time, spends the next hour looking for 10:00:58 Honshu, Japan quake.
02:54pm Duffy discoveres he has a hit with M6.2 quake near Tomatlan, Mexico, a reason for celebration, so jests withTuquila hint wating for conformation from Roger.
03:18pm Roger tells Duffy, he's found the right quake, and asked about any signals from Mexico, Duffy's confused about the right quake and assumes it's the 10:00:58 Honshu, and wonderes why Roger didn't take the Tuquila hint, tries to find 10:00:58 Honshu again!.
04:31pm Duffy, now very confused, describes post procedure with regretable sartirical remark.
04:44pm Roger tells Duffy, quake came before he posted so doesn't count, Duffy only knows of 1 quake at 10:13am but thats not included, no EM signal for that one so no prediction
05:37pm Duffy accepts Rogers fail decision, on going broadband problems may be blocking USGS etc data regarding 10:00:58 quake, and new guy probably made mistake.
06:24pm Roger tells Duffy, one quake to early, Duffy realises he's included 10:13 Honshu, Japan quake, and there is no 10:00:58, and one to late which doesn't understand as 48 hour window was posted.
12:23am Duffy replies at length, not in the best of moods
And that was my day, exitement, elation, confusion and delusion, I'm not blaming Roger here, he used the data in the boxes as he's always done, the phantom quake gave me a headache though!. It's obvious there were misunderstandings and mixed messages
The script was a nightmare, I'm not very computer literate but I know how to add data in 6 boxes, I eventually posted my prediction, and whilst I was in bed, it developed AI and moved down 30 minutes,
I'll post as usual, but I'll add my own times/ dates/mags etc, Don't mind being wrong, but this is a different kind of prediction, I went to some lengths to acquaint members with how to read these images and what to look for, in preparation for predictions, but it was tested under the old system. We're all learning a new thing here, so lets not make Duffy feel like a Japanese loving, postdictioning, soreloosing Englishman.
And drop the sceptisism, or I'll never get over there for Thanksgiving .
(02-23-2015, 05:42 PM)Duffy Wrote: Had a terrible day yesterday, only hit wrong on two of my own predictions in the past 12 months, then the first one I posted fails dramatically, then I go to bed not fully understanding why (ever tried sleeping with mixed messages in your head). I ended up rising at 4am and went through the days posts and literally found mixed messages.
Rogers last statement of the day said "I mustn't object if the answer is wrong", which I fully agree with and had told him so. I don't want to be seen as a sore looser here, I'm not out to win a prize (the Noble maybe!), the data has been rejected and has already been overwritten in a 24 hour monitoring experiment. Your now talking about altering the prediction format to accomodate data from myself, or others with similar format predictions. I've been here a month now, and spent my time tutoring in VLF with consistancy, and after yesterdays performance, I fear it will be repeated unless I cover a couple of major points that have been over looked in past posts, and an overview of yesterdays dialogue.
The main feature of an image with an EM signal is the EM signal itself, it is the only thing that gives any indication of an impending Earthquake, there fore any VLF prediction can only start from this point. An EM signal never comes after a quake occurance, the energy has been depleated prior to rupture. If an Earthquake occurs at 9:00am and an EM signal appears at 9:30am, the two are not linked, the 9:00am quake will have released its own EM signature up to 48 hours earlier, the next quake after the 9:30am EM signal is linked.
As I've also mentioned in my previous posts, the system only records the primary quake event in a given region, and will not record aftershocks even if the magnitude is greater than the initial quake. The first Earthquake in the Honshu,Japan region occured on 7th Feb 06:19 UT,since then 24 aftershocks have been recorded upto prediction time, including the M6.0 at 10:13 UT on 21st Feb.
Overview of prediction posts
Duffy posted prediction at 8:09pm, comments on problems loading imput and data to site, and mentions the Honshu, Japan quake at 10:13 UT so others would not confuse it with EM signal at 10:30 UT.
12:34am Roger notices script problems regarding minimum magnitude values
12:45am Brian responds and repairs script
12:50am Roger questions possible mag values imputed by Duffy earlier
01:10am Roger tells Duffy about a quake near Honshu,Japan at 10:00:58
02:10am Mr spock arrives
11:10am Duffy notices there has been a glich with script , realises original 10:30 times now read 10:00 so corrects in text, not undully worried as image holds the real time, spends the next hour looking for 10:00:58 Honshu, Japan quake.
02:54pm Duffy discoveres he has a hit with M6.2 quake near Tomatlan, Mexico, a reason for celebration, so jests withTuquila hint wating for conformation from Roger.
03:18pm Roger tells Duffy, he's found the right quake, and asked about any signals from Mexico, Duffy's confused about the right quake and assumes it's the 10:00:58 Honshu, and wonderes why Roger didn't take the Tuquila hint, tries to find 10:00:58 Honshu again!.
04:31pm Duffy, now very confused, describes post procedure with regretable sartirical remark.
04:44pm Roger tells Duffy, quake came before he posted so doesn't count, Duffy only knows of 1 quake at 10:13am but thats not included, no EM signal for that one so no prediction
05:37pm Duffy accepts Rogers fail decision, on going broadband problems may be blocking USGS etc data regarding 10:00:58 quake, and new guy probably made mistake.
06:24pm Roger tells Duffy, one quake to early, Duffy realises he's included 10:13 Honshu, Japan quake, and there is no 10:00:58, and one to late which doesn't understand as 48 hour window was posted.
12:23am Duffy replies at length, not in the best of moods
And that was my day, exitement, elation, confusion and delusion, I'm not blaming Roger here, he used the data in the boxes as he's always done, the phantom quake gave me a headache though!. It's obvious there were misunderstandings and mixed messages
The script was a nightmare, I'm not very computer literate but I know how to add data in 6 boxes, I eventually posted my prediction, and whilst I was in bed, it developed AI and moved down 30 minutes,
I'll post as usual, but I'll add my own times/ dates/mags etc, Don't mind being wrong, but this is a different kind of prediction, I went to some lengths to acquaint members with how to read these images and what to look for, in preparation for predictions, but it was tested under the old system. We're all learning a new thing here, so lets not make Duffy feel like a Japanese loving, postdictioning, soreloosing Englishman.
And drop the sceptisism, or I'll never get over there for Thanksgiving .
Duffy;
So, how was your day??.
Duffy, I'm sorry for my part in your confusion, by posting the wrong time for that quake. I do apologize.
You might want to get on the NEIC automatic notification list. It will notify you by email of any quakes you wish. You can specify location, magnitude and several other things and it's free.
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, sorry for pulling your leg.
Where is "Japan"? What if the quake was 500 miles off shore? Does that count? What does "tomorrow" mean? What if it was a M9 on the southern tip of the Kamchatka Peninsula? Well, technically, that's in Russia, but would be felt in Japan. Does that count? They said "Japan", not "Russia".
.