[Skywise]

(11-07-2016, 12:14 PM)Richter Wrote: Prediction from 100 Predictions:
07.11.2016 // 08:51:00 Tonga region
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Result:
M4.7, Nov.7,8h 51m,S. Fiji region
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Error:0h 0m-Is this Hit?

Technically, based on the parameters for your predictions, yes.

The epicenter is about 640km from Tonga, and you use a radius of 800km.
The magnitude has been update to M4.5, which is still within your prediction range.
And the time is certainly within your plus or minus 24 hour windows.

BUT!!!

It doesn't mean you successfully predicted anything.

Your radius is so large, the magnitude window so wide, and the time frame large enough, that you are bound to get some hits. Sometimes you guess the roll of the die correctly. I don't have the time to run the probability calculations for this hit, but I suspect the odds were pretty good.

Keep in mind I used to run a prediction program of my own and my success rate was astonishing.

During the time of my program there were 18,952 quakes that could have met my criteria, and I predicted 17,450 of them. A success rate of 92%!!!!

During the time of my program I made 5,489 predictions and 3,688 of them had hits. A success rate of 67%.

Yet in the end I am a failure. Why? And what does that mean for your predictions? I leave that as an exercise for you to figure out, Richter. I won't be back online for a week so that will give you plenty of time to figure it out.

Brian