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05-29-2014, 12:16 PM
Brian,
Yes, looks like the propagation of the quake was from west to east. Propagation affects the ground motion: the ground motion is stronger in the direction of propagation, in this case to the east. But, I doubt propagation direction is related to static stress changes. That is more likely related just to slip, including how much slip.
I'd say the big question is whether the segment east of this recent rupture is close to failure, after it broke in 1912. Also, how far a rupture might propagate once it got started. If Holocene (last 11,000 years or so) and GPS geodetic strain accumulation is between 15 and 20 mm/yr, as has been published, then that is 1 1/2 to 2 m of strain accumulation. But, "slip predictable" does not work on some faults, as shown by Weldon and others for the San Andreas at Wrightwood, where there is clustering in time. And, such clustering has been suggested by McHugh and others 2014, for the North Anatolian fault in Central basin of Marmara Sea (reference on the figure).
Chris
Yes, looks like the propagation of the quake was from west to east. Propagation affects the ground motion: the ground motion is stronger in the direction of propagation, in this case to the east. But, I doubt propagation direction is related to static stress changes. That is more likely related just to slip, including how much slip.
I'd say the big question is whether the segment east of this recent rupture is close to failure, after it broke in 1912. Also, how far a rupture might propagate once it got started. If Holocene (last 11,000 years or so) and GPS geodetic strain accumulation is between 15 and 20 mm/yr, as has been published, then that is 1 1/2 to 2 m of strain accumulation. But, "slip predictable" does not work on some faults, as shown by Weldon and others for the San Andreas at Wrightwood, where there is clustering in time. And, such clustering has been suggested by McHugh and others 2014, for the North Anatolian fault in Central basin of Marmara Sea (reference on the figure).
Chris