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+--- Thread: Duffy is back in business ! (/showthread.php?tid=372)
Duffy is back in business ! - Duffy - 03-18-2016
Hi Guy's
The good news is, I managed to resolve my power issues, with a little outside help, long story, but I shouldn't need to replace the batteries for at least two years ... also, I have managed to re-initialise my third system in a limited capacity, and it has already started receiving some interesting signals. On the down side ... my new physicist buddy is intrigued but dubious about the claims I am making about my data, but he has recommended that due to it's nature, I should try and compile 12 months of unbroken data and continue into a second year for comparison purposes. So for now, it looks like I am back to plan A, prediction .. and apologies for not following up on due evaluations, resent illness and unforeseen family issues had me side tracked for a while, but i will end-ever to address this in future.
I notice how quiet the site becomes when Brian's not around, so, I for one am glad it was only temporary .. likewise, prediction is extremely quiet when I'm not here making a nuisance of myself, so although I had decided to take some time out to better understand the data (which the physicist has agreed is rather unusual for standard radio frequencies), in truth, I miss the feeling of in-trepidation, as only I could at the moment .. so I'll continue, and leave the fancy stuff out for the present .. it might help to alleviate another 12 months of character analysis
My prediction is for a magnitude 6.5 - 7.5 event to occur in the South East Pacific, with preference to the Solomon Islands region, within 10 days from the time of this post.
Thank you,
Duffy.
RE: Duffy is back in business ! - Roger Hunter - 03-18-2016
(03-18-2016, 12:21 AM)Duffy Wrote: Hi Guy's
The good news is, I managed to resolve my power issues, with a little outside help, long story, but I shouldn't need to replace the batteries for at least two years ... also, I have managed to re-initialise my third system in a limited capacity, and it has already started receiving some interesting signals. On the down side ... my new physicist buddy is intrigued but dubious about the claims I am making about my data, but he has recommended that due to it's nature, I should try and compile 12 months of unbroken data and continue into a second year for comparison purposes. So for now, it looks like I am back to plan A, prediction .. and apologies for not following up on due evaluations, resent illness and unforeseen family issues had me side tracked for a while, but i will end-ever to address this in future.
I notice how quiet the site becomes when Brian's not around, so, I for one am glad it was only temporary .. likewise, prediction is extremely quiet when I'm not here making a nuisance of myself, so although I had decided to take some time out to better understand the data (which the physicist has agreed is rather unusual for standard radio frequencies), in truth, I miss the feeling of in-trepidation, as only I could at the moment .. so I'll continue, and leave the fancy stuff out for the present .. it might help to alleviate another 12 months of character analysis
My prediction is for a magnitude 6.5 - 7.5 event to occur in the South East Pacific, with preference to the Solomon Islands region, within 10 days from the time of this post.
Thank you,
Duffy.
Hi Duffy;
Glad to hear you're getting professional help. He's giving you good advice.
Your prediction is highly likely since the area is pretty active. That's bad because high probability lowers the score for a hit.
I haven't posted lately due to computer problems. I put my C: drive on an SSD for speed, everything else on a hard drive - which just failed. Of course I have a backup drive, but it hasn't been updated since I don't know when. Thus a lot of recent stuff has to be recreated. Yes, I know better, it's doing better that's the problem.
Roger
RE: Duffy is back in business ! - Duffy - 03-18-2016
Hi Roger
Yes .. It's a good feeling to finally have someone else reviewing my material, seems to have removed a lot of the anxiety I have been experiencing lately ... might be a bad thing for some here though, as my sense of humour may be in danger of returning
I agree there is a high probability of an event occurring in the region I selected .. and I hope you don't take this to heart but, prediction here seems to be a little conflicting in regards to my posts. Several weeks ago, Chris was expressing concern that my predictions were becoming to clinical, I stated at the time that precision would be a better determination of skill over coincidence, as you know, I was using solar and lunar data to select event locations, but I have had the impression there is little appetite here for this, Hence, my remark about leaving out the "fancy stuff". I am not unduly worried about not including my hypothesis here any more, but would appreciate your advice on how best to proceed ... do I predict that the next major event will be off the coast of Finuana Island, in the hopes of gaining the skill factor .. or do I predict the Solomon region and accept coincidence as the possible outcome because it is a highly active area ? ... and does high probability also include Central America and the Mediterranean, both very active regions ?.
Good to hear from you,
Duffy.
RE: Duffy is back in business ! - Duffy - 03-18-2016
(03-18-2016, 12:21 AM)Duffy Wrote: Hi Guy's
The good news is, I managed to resolve my power issues, with a little outside help, long story, but I shouldn't need to replace the batteries for at least two years ... also, I have managed to re-initialise my third system in a limited capacity, and it has already started receiving some interesting signals. On the down side ... my new physicist buddy is intrigued but dubious about the claims I am making about my data, but he has recommended that due to it's nature, I should try and compile 12 months of unbroken data and continue into a second year for comparison purposes. So for now, it looks like I am back to plan A, prediction .. and apologies for not following up on due evaluations, resent illness and unforeseen family issues had me side tracked for a while, but i will end-ever to address this in future.
I notice how quiet the site becomes when Brian's not around, so, I for one am glad it was only temporary .. likewise, prediction is extremely quiet when I'm not here making a nuisance of myself, so although I had decided to take some time out to better understand the data (which the physicist has agreed is rather unusual for standard radio frequencies), in truth, I miss the feeling of in-trepidation, as only I could at the moment .. so I'll continue, and leave the fancy stuff out for the present .. it might help to alleviate another 12 months of character analysis
My prediction is for a magnitude 6.5 - 7.5 event to occur in the South East Pacific, with preference to the Solomon Islands region, within 10 days from the time of this post.
Thank you,
Duffy.
Sorry Roger .. I was referring to Santa Isabel Island, recently uploaded a newer version of Google Earth and it's been plaguing me with problems.
Shame you can't predict on multiple 5's here, going off resent events !!.
RE: Duffy is back in business ! - Duffy - 03-18-2016
(03-18-2016, 12:21 AM)Duffy Wrote: Hi Guy's
The good news is, I managed to resolve my power issues, with a little outside help, long story, but I shouldn't need to replace the batteries for at least two years ... also, I have managed to re-initialise my third system in a limited capacity, and it has already started receiving some interesting signals. On the down side ... my new physicist buddy is intrigued but dubious about the claims I am making about my data, but he has recommended that due to it's nature, I should try and compile 12 months of unbroken data and continue into a second year for comparison purposes. So for now, it looks like I am back to plan A, prediction .. and apologies for not following up on due evaluations, resent illness and unforeseen family issues had me side tracked for a while, but i will end-ever to address this in future.
I notice how quiet the site becomes when Brian's not around, so, I for one am glad it was only temporary .. likewise, prediction is extremely quiet when I'm not here making a nuisance of myself, so although I had decided to take some time out to better understand the data (which the physicist has agreed is rather unusual for standard radio frequencies), in truth, I miss the feeling of in-trepidation, as only I could at the moment .. so I'll continue, and leave the fancy stuff out for the present .. it might help to alleviate another 12 months of character analysis
My prediction is for a magnitude 6.5 - 7.5 event to occur in the South East Pacific, with preference to the Solomon Islands region, within 10 days from the time of this post.
Thank you,
Duffy.
Sorry Roger .. I was referring to Santa Isabel Island, recently uploaded a newer version of Google Earth and it's been plaguing me with problems.
Shame you can't predict on multiple 5's here, going off resent events !!.
RE: Duffy is back in business ! - Roger Hunter - 03-19-2016
(03-18-2016, 01:52 PM)Duffy Wrote: Hi RogerHi Duffy;
Yes .. It's a good feeling to finally have someone else reviewing my material, seems to have removed a lot of the anxiety I have been experiencing lately ... might be a bad thing for some here though, as my sense of humour may be in danger of returning
I agree there is a high probability of an event occurring in the region I selected .. and I hope you don't take this to heart but, prediction here seems to be a little conflicting in regards to my posts. Several weeks ago, Chris was expressing concern that my predictions were becoming to clinical, I stated at the time that precision would be a better determination of skill over coincidence, as you know, I was using solar and lunar data to select event locations, but I have had the impression there is little appetite here for this, Hence, my remark about leaving out the "fancy stuff". I am not unduly worried about not including my hypothesis here any more, but would appreciate your advice on how best to proceed ... do I predict that the next major event will be off the coast of Finuana Island, in the hopes of gaining the skill factor .. or do I predict the Solomon region and accept coincidence as the possible outcome because it is a highly active area ? ... and does high probability also include Central America and the Mediterranean, both very active regions ?.
Good to hear from you,
Duffy.
I would advise you to restrict yourself to dates for mag 7+ quakes at first. Once you can do that reliably then you can work on locations.
Roger
RE: Duffy is back in business ! - Duffy - 03-19-2016
Hi Roger,
I appreciate the advice, but what you are suggesting is not achievable yet with the equipment I have ... a 7 on my screens would be no more discernible than a barrage of 5's !!, I am working on this, but aspect changes in the data week by week are not making it easy.
As you didn't answer my question about high probability, I can only assume you though I was being satirical again when in fact I was trying to understand the logic in what you said, I was not aware of a different level of hit which is dependant on event region .. if this is the case and you have published something here that I have over looked .. I apologise for the question, The hits are of little consequence but it is nice to have something to aim for, my English manner I guess !.
Duffy,
RE: Duffy is back in business ! - Roger Hunter - 03-19-2016
(03-19-2016, 04:01 PM)Duffy Wrote: Hi Roger,
I appreciate the advice, but what you are suggesting is not achievable yet with the equipment I have ... a 7 on my screens would be no more discernible than a barrage of 5's !!, I am working on this, but aspect changes in the data week by week are not making it easy.
As you didn't answer my question about high probability, I can only assume you though I was being satirical again when in fact I was trying to understand the logic in what you said, I was not aware of a different level of hit which is dependant on event region .. if this is the case and you have published something here that I have over looked .. I apologise for the question, The hits are of little consequence but it is nice to have something to aim for, my English manner I guess !.
Duffy,
Duffy;
Ok, so all you know from your screens is that something is happening (or likely to happen) somewhere soon (maybe).
That makes it tough to proceed.
The best you could do is state that some sort of seismicity can be expected somewhere in the near future, which is always true.
The probability question works this way in my evaluation program; when a specific location is predicted I check the history for that area to get the probability of a hit. This is used to assign a value to the results. A miss counts against you, a hit counts for you. The highest score would be to predict (correctly) a quake where none has ever happened. The lowest score would be for a location which has them all the time. Magnitude is part of the analysis, large one being less common.
Date predictions consider only date and mag. and get lower scores accordingly.
Roger
RE: Duffy is back in business ! - Duffy - 03-20-2016
Roger;
Thanks for the clear explanation .. I was aware of your evaluation program, but not how you assign values, so I am sorry if I put you on the spot.
I have been sat here trying to think of a different way to describe my work, that I haven't already tried over the last 15 months, in order to answer your question ... but the reality is, this is a site for seismologists and Earth scientists who are going to have as much understanding of my work, as I have about seismology or writing evaluation programs. The data is recording in real time, and as you can appreciate, this is very difficult to explain to someone that isn't physically here watching it .. a bit like Galileo trying to convince the masses "verbally" that four moons exist around Jupiter. But I am now content that someone with initials after there name is here in the flesh, and is fully engaged with investigating said recordings. However, to answer your question in simple terms ... Yes, I am detecting anomalies that eventually become seismic events. The Moon and Sun are acting like a radar on my screens, when the Moon passes over a hot spot on the Earth's surface, my systems record structure and I note position of longitude, if the Sun passes over the same longitude and the same structure is recorded, this becomes a potential region for a seismic event. After several orbits, the structure becomes larger and I am then able to triangulate latitude by combining a Solar noon signal with alternate angles of the morning and evening terminator zones, I now have a potential site within a given radius. When the structure changes clarity, it thus becomes an aspect change or early warning of imminent event, usually within 48 hours ( that's usually the point I post my prediction). several hours before event occurs (equivalent time period of night at the Sun's latitude on the day) a dome structure appears which is indicative of some kind of pressure build up, in the last phase, the original structure becomes compressed or inhibited, aprox one hour before event.
The dome structures are key to determining magnitude, they can vary in dB range (or hight up the screen) and time period from start to finish, but they can encompass one, or multiple signatures in one period. A VLF signal uses a corridor between the surface and the ionosphere to propagate ... during the day the surface is a more efficient conductor, this changes at night when the ionosphere is more dominant. At Sunset and Sunrise, they struggle with each other for dominance and in effect, cancel each other out, so the signal drops to the bottom of the screen. A shorter time period of this scenario is happening to create the dome structures, only this time, it is positive and negative magnetic fields associated with anomalies at play.
When I posted my present prediction, I waited until the last minute to do so ... I waited for an hour after the structure had begun to compress, I did not get my predicted event because two 5+'s occurred within minutes of each other in close proximity to my selected location, I am not inferring anything here that would be believed anyway, but the same thing happened with my last prediction, and you implied that I was being a fool to myself. I can sympathise with how many strange idea's you may have dealt with over the years, and undoubtedly, this one will go to the top of the pile, but it may make an interesting topic to see how many times I make a fool of myself this year ... I didn't really want to mention the moon stuff here again .. but you did ask !!.
Sorry this was a bit long, I heard Brian likes reading my posts .. so I wanted to make sure he got his money's worth
.Duffy,