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+--- Thread: 99.9% chance of quake? (/showthread.php?tid=321)
99.9% chance of quake? - Skywise - 10-24-2015
I'm sure many saw this story especially if you are anywhere near LA, but a paper published recently talks about a 99.95 chance of an M5 quake or larger within 60 miles of the recent M5.1 La Habra quake.
The LA times has an article about the controversy, where USGS and Lucy Jones vehemently disagree.
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-usgs-99-9-percent-chance-20151022-story.html
link to paper:
http://geodesy.unr.edu/publications/DonnellanEtAl2015.pdf
Brian
RE: 99.9% chance of quake? - PennyB - 10-27-2015
(10-24-2015, 10:45 PM)Skywise Wrote: I'm sure many saw this story especially if you are anywhere near LA, but a paper published recently talks about a 99.95 chance of an M5 quake or larger within 60 miles of the recent M5.1 La Habra quake.
The LA times has an article about the controversy, where USGS and Lucy Jones vehemently disagree.
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-usgs-99-9-percent-chance-20151022-story.html
link to paper:
http://geodesy.unr.edu/publications/DonnellanEtAl2015.pdf
Brian
Many people have asked me about this. I point out that, in general, we cannot be this positive about when a quake will happen. I DO predict that there will be a quake of 2.5 or larger near San Ramon today!!
RE: 99.9% chance of quake? - Skywise - 10-28-2015
(10-24-2015, 10:45 PM)Skywise Wrote: http://geodesy.unr.edu/publications/DonnellanEtAl2015.pdf
Brian
The above link seems to not be working any more. But I found it archived on the Wayback Machine.
https://web.archive.org/web/20151023013727/http://geodesy.unr.edu/publications/DonnellanEtAl2015.pdf
Brian