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+--- Thread: A Fair Test 8 / 2 / 2017 (/showthread.php?tid=697)
RE: A Fair Test 8 / 2 / 2017 - Duffy - 02-10-2017
(02-10-2017, 05:06 PM)Duffy Wrote:(02-10-2017, 04:37 PM)Duffy Wrote: Roger
Forgive me but I'm not sure how I am able to make a comparison with these numbers. In your last run, 77' W had 753 sunrise/sunset hits using a 0.5 degree band. If I am making this out correctly, this run is saying 81' W had 498 sunrise/sunset hits using a 0.25 degree band, and 73' W had no sunrise/sunset hits, but had 224 moon hits. I'm confused why the moon has entered the equation when I thought this was an analysis of the terminator zones. And do these results indicate that because you used a 0.25 range, there are no hits between 0.25 and 0.5 ?. You used 0.5 last time, if I want to get a true picture, should the bands not be the same ?
I hold my hand up at being dumb with probability or odds ... am I doing the same thing with this ?
Duffy
I forgot to mention, I appear to be accumulating new data, 7th Feb 10:55 ut ... 8th Feb 07:14 ut ... 9th Feb 15:32 ut. If I accumulate more, do you have any objection to this being used in conjunction with your selection ?
Duffy
Apologies ... the last date here should read 10th Feb 15:32 ut
Duffy
RE: A Fair Test 8 / 2 / 2017 - Roger Hunter - 02-10-2017
(02-10-2017, 05:06 PM)Duffy Wrote:(02-10-2017, 04:37 PM)Duffy Wrote: Roger
Quote:Forgive me but I'm not sure how I am able to make a comparison with these numbers. In your last run, 77' W had 753 sunrise/sunset hits using a 0.5 degree band. If I am making this out correctly, this run is saying 81' W had 498 sunrise/sunset hits using a 0.25 degree band, and 73' W had no sunrise/sunset hits, but had 224 moon hits. I'm confused why the moon has entered the equation when I thought this was an analysis of the terminator zones.
No, my fault in not making things clear. Sun and Moon should not be there. It's the first and second locations as entered in the program.
Quote:And do these results indicate that because you used a 0.25 range, there are no hits between 0.25 and 0.5 ?.
Range is really half the band width because the program looks for things from (radius - range) to (radius + range.)
Quote: You used 0.5 last time, if I want to get a true picture, should the bands not be the same ?
Yes.
Quote:I hold my hand up at being dumb with probability or odds ... am I doing the same thing with this ?
No, my fault as I said.
I rewrote the program to allow two locations to be entered and analyzed. I noticed one always got more hits than the other and thought it might always be the first one so I reversed them and the second entered got the most so it's the actual geographic location involved.
Roger
Quote:I forgot to mention, I appear to be accumulating new data, 7th Feb 10:55 ut ... 8th Feb 07:14 ut ... 9th Feb 15:32 ut. If I accumulate more, do you have any objection to this being used in conjunction with your selection ?
No but I wouldn't know what to do with it since we're working with location, not time.
Roger
Duffy
RE: A Fair Test 8 / 2 / 2017 - Duffy - 02-10-2017
Roger;
That's Okay, always a few hiccup's with something new, I hold the record for mistakes here so you have nothing to worry about !
You don't have to do anything with these dates, I'm just making note that I have them, and will convert them to location for the test. Same thing I'll do when I get your dates ... I'll do the work and you help with analysis.
Duffy
RE: A Fair Test 8 / 2 / 2017 - Roger Hunter - 02-10-2017
(02-10-2017, 08:11 PM)Duffy Wrote: Roger;
That's Okay, always a few hiccup's with something new, I hold the record for mistakes here so you have nothing to worry about !
You don't have to do anything with these dates, I'm just making note that I have them, and will convert them to location for the test. Same thing I'll do when I get your dates ... I'll do the work and you help with analysis.
Duffy
Duffy;
I've written the program to enter degrees and minutes for two locations and compare them to the quakes. The output is hits for both locations and odds on a hit.
One problem here is that I don't know if the answer is right since it's too big to test by hand.
Roger
RE: A Fair Test 8 / 2 / 2017 - Duffy - 02-10-2017
Roger;
Can it be configured to test 2 different co-ordinates in a small period like January, with a 1 degree band ? I don't mind going through the quakes on my screen again if it will help ... it is in my interest to get it right too.
Duffy
RE: A Fair Test 8 / 2 / 2017 - Roger Hunter - 02-10-2017
(02-10-2017, 09:23 PM)Duffy Wrote: Roger;
Can it be configured to test 2 different co-ordinates in a small period like January, with a 1 degree band ? I don't mind going through the quakes on my screen again if it will help ... it is in my interest to get it right too.
Duffy
Duffy;
Sure, just minor modifications.
Roger
RE: A Fair Test 8 / 2 / 2017 - Duffy - 02-10-2017
(02-10-2017, 09:29 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:(02-10-2017, 09:23 PM)Duffy Wrote: Roger;
Can it be configured to test 2 different co-ordinates in a small period like January, with a 1 degree band ? I don't mind going through the quakes on my screen again if it will help ... it is in my interest to get it right too.
Duffy
Duffy;
Sure, just minor modifications.
Roger
Roger;
Should have something together for you by 18:00 ut tomorrow.
Duffy
RE: A Fair Test 8 / 2 / 2017 - Roger Hunter - 02-10-2017
(02-10-2017, 09:55 PM)Duffy Wrote:(02-10-2017, 09:29 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:(02-10-2017, 09:23 PM)Duffy Wrote: Roger;
Can it be configured to test 2 different co-ordinates in a small period like January, with a 1 degree band ? I don't mind going through the quakes on my screen again if it will help ... it is in my interest to get it right too.
Duffy
Duffy;
Sure, just minor modifications.
Roger
Roger;
Should have something together for you by 18:00 ut tomorrow.
Duffy
Duffy;
Ok, the program is modified and works. The quake file ends in 2016. Do you want 2017 added?
Roger
RE: A Fair Test 8 / 2 / 2017 - Duffy - 02-10-2017
(02-10-2017, 10:21 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:(02-10-2017, 09:55 PM)Duffy Wrote:(02-10-2017, 09:29 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:(02-10-2017, 09:23 PM)Duffy Wrote: Roger;
Can it be configured to test 2 different co-ordinates in a small period like January, with a 1 degree band ? I don't mind going through the quakes on my screen again if it will help ... it is in my interest to get it right too.
Duffy
Duffy;
Sure, just minor modifications.
Roger
Roger;
Should have something together for you by 18:00 ut tomorrow.
Duffy
Duffy;
Ok, the program is modified and works. The quake file ends in 2016. Do you want 2017 added?
Roger
Roger;
Yes if you will, I can only check the quakes for January gone (2017) because that data is still on my screen.
Duffy
RE: A Fair Test 8 / 2 / 2017 - Duffy - 02-11-2017
Hi Roger
I have worked these numbers, but I don't think they are going to be much help to you.
Number of quakes between 1st - 31st Jan = 152 (EMSC)
Number of locations = 46
Sunrise / Sunset = 44
Dawn / Dusk = 60
I used the 24 locations from the test ... converted the 3 time / dates (posted yesterday) into location making 6. And calculated moon's first and last second (of time) position of furthest North and South, between 11th Jan and 22nd Feb making 16.
Four locations all shared the highest number of sunrise/sunset hits, but these were only 3 hits each !
117' 12' W - 22' 38' S ..... 66' 44' W - 18' 32' S ..... 8' 36' W - 21' 43' S ..... 85' 15' E - 18' 52' N
I used a +/- 1 degree margin, but this was only required in 7 cases, the rest hit the centre of the crosses within 0.25'.
77' 21' W came out on top again with 7 hits.
Sorry ... its not much to work with
Duffy