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+--- Thread: Prediction for Mid-Atlantic 25 / 3 / 2017 (/showthread.php?tid=731)
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RE: Prediction for Mid-Atlantic 25 / 3 / 2017 - Duffy - 04-14-2017
(04-14-2017, 12:45 AM)Roger Hunter Wrote:(04-14-2017, 12:39 AM)Duffy Wrote:(04-13-2017, 10:43 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:Roger(04-13-2017, 10:39 PM)Duffy Wrote:(03-25-2017, 11:30 PM)Duffy Wrote: Longitude .......... 11' 10' W
Latitude ............. 6' 32' S
Magnitude .......... 5 - 6
Error .................. +/- 1'
location .............. Ascension Fracture Zone
Start date ........... 23:30 ut 25th Mar
Expiry date ......... 00:00 ut 25th Apr
Note ................... a consistently strong signal ... too good to pass on !
Duffy
M 5.0 Ascension Island Region 21:11:36 ut 13th April ... 11' 27' W - 5' 16' S
It's about time ... I was getting bored!
Duffy
Duffy;
Sorry but I don't get excited over 5s.
Roger
Sorry it's only a small event, but it is within the range of the magnitude posted ... it's good to see you haven't lost your flair for encouragement!
Duffy
Duffy;
It's because they are so common that any prediction is likely to be a hit.
>> If that's your professional opinion as an evaluator ... why bother trying ?
If you want to get my attention, correctly predict a 7+ in a location which has never had one.
>> My data suggests South Sandwich Islands on 31'W looks ready for another rumble.
If I was to predict here, what magnitude would you suggest I chose ?
This region is seismically active, I am likely to get a hit anyway ... should I bother predicting ?
How do you suggest I determine between a 5 or a 7 from a spike on a monitor ?
Did you check out my search program yet?
>> In truth, I have been too busy with work, but I'm taking time off for Easter so I'll check it out this weekend.
Duffy
RE: Prediction for Mid-Atlantic 25 / 3 / 2017 - Roger Hunter - 04-14-2017
(04-14-2017, 10:46 AM)Duffy Wrote:(04-14-2017, 12:45 AM)Roger Hunter Wrote:(04-14-2017, 12:39 AM)Duffy Wrote:(04-13-2017, 10:43 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:Roger(04-13-2017, 10:39 PM)Duffy Wrote: M 5.0 Ascension Island Region 21:11:36 ut 13th April ... 11' 27' W - 5' 16' S
It's about time ... I was getting bored!
Duffy
Duffy;
Sorry but I don't get excited over 5s.
Roger
Sorry it's only a small event, but it is within the range of the magnitude posted ... it's good to see you haven't lost your flair for encouragement!
Duffy
Duffy;
>> If that's your professional opinion as an evaluator ... why bother trying ?
Trying what? It's you that shouldn't bother trying to predict the small ones.
>> My data suggests South Sandwich Islands on 31'W looks ready for another rumble.
If I was to predict here, what magnitude would you suggest I chose ?
This region is seismically active, I am likely to get a hit anyway ... should I bother predicting ?
Only if you have reason to expect a 6+
>> How do you suggest I determine between a 5 or a 7 from a spike on a monitor ?
That's your problem. What you need to solve it is a large number of spikes which matched quakes so you can look for patterns indicating size.
Did you check out my search program yet?
>> In truth, I have been too busy with work, but I'm taking time off for Easter so I'll check it out this weekend.
Ok. Extract everything into the same folder and click on the .exe file. It expects decimal degrees for lat/lon.
Small maps may not work right.
Output maps have the same name so rename if you want to keep them.
Roger
RE: Prediction for Mid-Atlantic 25 / 3 / 2017 - Duffy - 04-14-2017
Yep! your right, I'll concentrate on finding 6's. Should I apologise for finding any future 5's now ... or should I start a tab ?
Your not my enemy, and I'm not yours, how does anyone know what magnitude an earthquake is going to be until it happens.
I just find where there might be one and never claimed differently...
Duffy
RE: Prediction for Mid-Atlantic 25 / 3 / 2017 - Roger Hunter - 04-14-2017
(04-14-2017, 04:48 PM)Duffy Wrote: Yep! your right, I'll concentrate on finding 6's. Should I apologise for finding any future 5's now ... or should I start a tab ?Duffy;
Your not my enemy, and I'm not yours, how does anyone know what magnitude an earthquake is going to be until it happens.
I just find where there might be one and never claimed differently...
Duffy
I'm not telling you what to do, I'm just explaining the results. Small quakes are common so they score low in an evaluation.
I agree, getting the mag right may be impossible with the type of signals you see, but if you don't predict one you'll be judged by the odds on a quake of any size and that will kill your score. Better to say 6+ and miss than say any size, hit or miss.
Location only is fine but the scores will necessarily be low.
Roger
RE: Prediction for Mid-Atlantic 25 / 3 / 2017 - Roger Hunter - 04-17-2017
(04-14-2017, 01:07 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:(04-14-2017, 10:46 AM)Duffy Wrote:(04-14-2017, 12:45 AM)Roger Hunter Wrote:(04-14-2017, 12:39 AM)Duffy Wrote:(04-13-2017, 10:43 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote: Duffy;Roger
Sorry but I don't get excited over 5s.
Roger
Sorry it's only a small event, but it is within the range of the magnitude posted ... it's good to see you haven't lost your flair for encouragement!
Duffy
Duffy;
>> If that's your professional opinion as an evaluator ... why bother trying ?
Trying what? It's you that shouldn't bother trying to predict the small ones.
>> My data suggests South Sandwich Islands on 31'W looks ready for another rumble.
If I was to predict here, what magnitude would you suggest I chose ?
This region is seismically active, I am likely to get a hit anyway ... should I bother predicting ?
Only if you have reason to expect a 6+
>> How do you suggest I determine between a 5 or a 7 from a spike on a monitor ?
That's your problem. What you need to solve it is a large number of spikes which matched quakes so you can look for patterns indicating size.
Did you check out my search program yet?
>> In truth, I have been too busy with work, but I'm taking time off for Easter so I'll check it out this weekend.
Ok. Extract everything into the same folder and click on the .exe file. It expects decimal degrees for lat/lon.
Small maps may not work right.
Output maps have the same name so rename if you want to keep them.
Roger
Duffy;
As a companion to the search program, I've written a program to compute odds for predictions which call for quakes of a given size range falling within a lat/lon box or a circle about a lat/lon point.
It uses the same quake file as the search program and should be kept in the same folder.
The odds are determined by finding the number of times such quakes have happened historically versus the number of times it could have happened.
Roger