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+--- Thread: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction (/showthread.php?tid=65)
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Amit - 03-17-2014
(03-17-2014, 04:54 PM)Canie Wrote: Back to reality - knowing a 6.5 quake will occur on a day somewhere in the world at some time is really worthless.. we already know quake of this size can occur anytime in the 'at risk' areas.
Canie
(03-17-2014, 04:12 AM)Roger Hunter Wrote: Amit;
Here's how I would score you for this month (so fsr)
1)28th Feb/1st March 2014......6.7 Miss
2)6/7th March .................6.4 Hit
3)12th March ..................6.4 Hit
4)16th March ..................6.5 Hit
5)24th March...................6.5 Not time
6)28th March...................6.3 Not time
So 3 out of 4 predictions were correct and the odds on a mag 6 quake in a 3 day window are about 10%. This puts you way above chance for this small sample, but that's no reason to fault USGS.
Your long term average is below chance and that's what matters.
Roger
Canie
This is surprising statement. Do 6.5+ quakes occur daily? What is Roger's view on this statement. What is then all research is for? I invite one and all to give 4 out of 4 hits of 6+ (forget 6.5) quakes
Amit
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Amit - 03-24-2014
(02-24-2014, 08:29 AM)Amit Wrote: Prediction for March 2014
sorry for not posting the probable dates for February.
Now, I could find some time here are the dates for March 2014
There are several planets changing the direction in March 2014 eg Mars, Mercury,Jupiter and Saturn. Besides Jupiter is at Maximum Declination in March 7th ,hence I expect more major quakes and /or Volcanic eruptions in March 2014
1)28th Feb/1st March 2014......6.7
2)6/7th March .........................6.4
3)12th March ........................6.4
4)16th March ........................6.5
5)24th March.......................6.5
6)28th March......................6.3
places not predicted
Magnitude window + or -0.3
Date window + or - one day
Amit
hi
one more hit prediction. 6.2 quake at Chile on 23rd March 2014 AT 18.20 UTC.
pl watch the accuracy of prediction,both time window and magnitude window
Roger, what are the odds of getting five consecutive hits ( with both time and magnitude window as specified), by giving random dates?
Do you feel these are just flukes,or out of the hat predictions?
Amit
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Roger Hunter - 03-24-2014
(03-24-2014, 05:13 PM)Amit Wrote: Roger, what are the odds of getting five consecutive hits ( with both time and magnitude window as specified), by giving random dates?
Do you feel these are just flukes,or out of the hat predictions?
Amit
Amit, the odds on getting 5 hits on mag 6 quakes with 3 day windows is 0.000012.
The odds on winning the lottery are 1/287,000,000 but someone does it.
You've just found a bigger than usual cherry.
It's still the overall record that counts.
But if this winning streak continues, I may change my mind!
Roger
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Amit - 03-25-2014
(03-24-2014, 09:22 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:(03-24-2014, 05:13 PM)Amit Wrote: Roger, what are the odds of getting five consecutive hits ( with both time and magnitude window as specified), by giving random dates?
Do you feel these are just flukes,or out of the hat predictions?
Amit
Amit, the odds on getting 5 hits on mag 6 quakes with 3 day windows is 0.000012.
The odds on winning the lottery are 1/287,000,000 but someone does it.
You've just found a bigger than usual cherry.
It's still the overall record that counts.
But if this winning streak continues, I may change my mind!
Roger
But why the one winning lottery should be me? Why not anybody else?
Amit
Roger
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Amit - 03-26-2014
(03-24-2014, 09:22 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:(03-24-2014, 05:13 PM)Amit Wrote: Roger, what are the odds of getting five consecutive hits ( with both time and magnitude window as specified), by giving random dates?
Do you feel these are just flukes,or out of the hat predictions?
Amit
Amit, the odds on getting 5 hits on mag 6 quakes with 3 day windows is 0.000012.
The odds on winning the lottery are 1/287,000,000 but someone does it.
You've just found a bigger than usual cherry.
It's still the overall record that counts.
But if this winning streak continues, I may change my mind!
Roger
But why the one winning lottery should be me? Why not anybody else?
Amit
Roger
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Roger Hunter - 03-26-2014
(03-26-2014, 04:52 AM)Amit Wrote: But why the one winning lottery should be me? Why not anybody else?
Amit;
Because you're the one making predictions.
Probability is crucial to these evaluations and is the source of much confusion. Since your success is so unlikely I took another look, with the following results.
[PRE]
You predicted this:
1) 28th Feb/1st March 2014......6.7 (Noon 27 Feb - noon 2 Mar)
2) 6/7th March .................6.4 (Noon 5 Mar - noon 8 Mar)
3) 12th March ..................6.4
4) 16th March ..................6.5
5) 24th March...................6.5
6) 28th March...................6.3
places not predicted
Magnitude window + or -0.3
Date window + or - one day
------------------------------------
Here are the mag 6+ quakes so far:
2014-02-26 21:13:40 6.1
2014-02-27 <-------------|
2014-02-28 --------------|
2014-03-01 --------------| (1) Hit
2014-03-02 09:37:54 6.2<-|
2014-03-02 20:11:22 6.5
2014-03-03
2014-03-04
2014-03-05 09:56:58 6.3<--|
2014-03-06 ---------------|
2014-03-07----------------| (2) Hit
2014-03-08 ---------------|
2014-03-09
2014-03-10 05:18:13 6.8
2014-03-11 02:44:05 6.4<--|
2014-03-11 22:03:11 6.1---| (3) Hit
2014-03-12 <--------------|
2014-03-13 17:06:50 6.3
2014-03-14
2014-03-15 08:59:21 6.1<--|
2014-03-15 23:51:30 6.3---| (4) Hit
2014-03-16 21:16:30 6.7<--|
2014-03-17 05:11:34 6.2
2014-03-18
2014-03-19
2014-03-20
2014-03-21 13:41:07 6.5
2014-03-22 12:59:58 6.2
2014-03-23 18:20:03 6.0<--|
2014-03-24 ---------------| (5) Hit
2014-03-25 <--------------|
2014-03-26 03:29:36 6.5
2014-03-27<---------------|
2014-03-28----------------| Miss
2014-03-29<---------------|
16 quakes, 32 days, 6 predictions, 5 hits
[/PRE]
Now the odds are about 50% and 5 out of 6 hits with 50% chance of success is about 10%. Even 5 out of 5 has a 3% chance, so while you're good, it's not good enough to pass.
Roger
Odds cannot be close to correct - Island Chris - 03-27-2014
Roger, your odds cannot be correct.
see:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php
There are 134 earthquakes M6-6.9 per year, or 150 quakes M6 or higher per year. So, almost one every other day. So, maybe 45% change of a quake any one day, and much higher chance of a quake within any 3 day period. So your odds of 0.000012 for 5 out of 6 must be off (by orders of magnitude?).
OK, presumably many quakes are aftershocks, so if that is taken into account, odds are lower than if they were all randomly distributed. But your odds still do not seem possible by orders of magnitude.
Also, if you were correct, comparing this to lottery does not make logical sense: Amit is correct that he would be a single lottery player.
So, try again.
Chris
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Roger Hunter - 03-27-2014
(03-27-2014, 10:27 PM)Island Chris Wrote: Roger, your odds cannot be correct.
see:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php
There are 134 earthquakes M6-6.9 per year, or 150 quakes M6 or higher per year. So, almost one every other day. So, maybe 45% change of a quake any one day, and much higher chance of a quake within any 3 day period. So your odds of 0.000012 for 5 out of 6 must be off (by orders of magnitude?).
That assumes they are uniformly distributed and they are not.
Quote:OK, presumably many quakes are aftershocks, so if that is taken into account, odds are lower than if they were all randomly distributed. But your odds still do not seem possible by orders of magnitude.
What I do is divide the 1973-2013 time into 3 day windows, sort the 6.0-6.9 quakes into their respective windows and count how many windows contain quakes. Divide the number of quake windows by the total number of windows and it comes out to 0.101.
The question then is what are the odds on 5 consecutive hits if the chances are 0.101 and the answer is 0.0000105 for a single tail test.
Quote:
Also, if you were correct, comparing this to lottery does not make logical sense: Amit is correct that he would be a single lottery player.
Ok, I'll give you that. I was looking for a suitable analogy and that's all I could come up with.
In my next post I looked at the odds for the actual short time period in question and found they are much higher due to increased seismicity so the odds on 5 hits in a row were well within the range of possibility.
Roger
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Amit - 04-20-2014
(03-27-2014, 11:12 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:(03-27-2014, 10:27 PM)Island Chris Wrote: Roger, your odds cannot be correct.
see:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php
There are 134 earthquakes M6-6.9 per year, or 150 quakes M6 or higher per year. So, almost one every other day. So, maybe 45% change of a quake any one day, and much higher chance of a quake within any 3 day period. So your odds of 0.000012 for 5 out of 6 must be off (by orders of magnitude?).
That assumes they are uniformly distributed and they are not.
Quote:OK, presumably many quakes are aftershocks, so if that is taken into account, odds are lower than if they were all randomly distributed. But your odds still do not seem possible by orders of magnitude.
What I do is divide the 1973-2013 time into 3 day windows, sort the 6.0-6.9 quakes into their respective windows and count how many windows contain quakes. Divide the number of quake windows by the total number of windows and it comes out to 0.101.
The question then is what are the odds on 5 consecutive hits if the chances are 0.101 and the answer is 0.0000105 for a single tail test.
Quote:
Also, if you were correct, comparing this to lottery does not make logical sense: Amit is correct that he would be a single lottery player.
Ok, I'll give you that. I was looking for a suitable analogy and that's all I could come up with.
In my next post I looked at the odds for the actual short time period in question and found they are much higher due to increased seismicity so the odds on 5 hits in a row were well within the range of possibility.
Roger
Roger
How many hits in March and April Roger?
Amit
RE: Difficulty in posting ( due to lack of time) under prediction - Roger Hunter - 04-21-2014
(04-20-2014, 03:55 PM)Amit Wrote:(03-27-2014, 11:12 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote: [quote='Island Chris' pid='205' dateline='1395959256']
Roger, your odds cannot be correct.
see:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php
There are 134 earthquakes M6-6.9 per year, or 150 quakes M6 or higher per year. So, almost one every other day. So, maybe 45% change of a quake any one day, and much higher chance of a quake within any 3 day period. So your odds of 0.000012 for 5 out of 6 must be off (by orders of magnitude?).
That assumes they are uniformly distributed and they are not.
Quote:OK, presumably many quakes are aftershocks, so if that is taken into account, odds are lower than if they were all randomly distributed. But your odds still do not seem possible by orders of magnitude.
What I do is divide the 1973-2013 time into 3 day windows, sort the 6.0-6.9 quakes into their respective windows and count how many windows contain quakes. Divide the number of quake windows by the total number of windows and it comes out to 0.101.
The question then is what are the odds on 5 consecutive hits if the chances are 0.101 and the answer is 0.0000105 for a single tail test.
Quote:
Also, if you were correct, comparing this to lottery does not make logical sense: Amit is correct that he would be a single lottery player.
Ok, I'll give you that. I was looking for a suitable analogy and that's all I could come up with.
In my next post I looked at the odds for the actual short time period in question and found they are much higher due to increased seismicity so the odds on 5 hits in a row were well within the range of possibility.
Roger
Quote:Roger
How many hits in March and April Roger?
Amit
Amit;
For the period 2014/03/01 to 2014/04/20 there are 17 three day windows and 14 contained quakes of mag 6+. That's 14/17=0.823 chances for a hit.
In that same period you made 8 predictions and got 6 hits. That's 6/8=0.75 success rate so right away you can see you're below chance.
Roger