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+--- Thread: Proposed test - comments wanted (/showthread.php?tid=210)
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Proposed test - comments wanted - Roger Hunter - 03-11-2015
I've dealt with a number of individuals who think quakes are related to the sun-moon angle, among them Amit Dave, Jim Berkland and EDG.
I propose a simple test of this idea.
I will determine the sun-moon angle for every mag 6+ quake in the NEIC catalog and sort them by 5 degree blocks from 0 to 180 degrees.
If there is such a relation, there should be more quakes at certain angles. 0, 90 and 180 are most commonly suggested.
If not, the idea is refuted.
Any comments?
Roger
RE: Proposed test - comments wanted - Skywise - 03-12-2015
(03-11-2015, 11:08 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote: I will determine the sun-moon angle for every mag 6+ quake in the NEIC catalog and sort them by 5 degree blocks from 0 to 180 degrees.
Can you describe how you calculate this angle? Is it the same as how 'they' figure it? This is the only area where I can see a point for argument.
Brian
RE: Proposed test - comments wanted - Roger Hunter - 03-12-2015
(03-12-2015, 12:49 AM)Skywise Wrote:(03-11-2015, 11:08 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote: I will determine the sun-moon angle for every mag 6+ quake in the NEIC catalog and sort them by 5 degree blocks from 0 to 180 degrees.
Can you describe how you calculate this angle? Is it the same as how 'they' figure it? This is the only area where I can see a point for argument.
Brian
It's a standard astronomical calculation for the position of the sun and moon. Shouldn't be any problem with that.
I can send you the program if you like?
Roger
RE: Proposed test - comments wanted - Skywise - 03-12-2015
(03-12-2015, 12:58 AM)Roger Hunter Wrote:(03-12-2015, 12:49 AM)Skywise Wrote:(03-11-2015, 11:08 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote: I will determine the sun-moon angle for every mag 6+ quake in the NEIC catalog and sort them by 5 degree blocks from 0 to 180 degrees.
Can you describe how you calculate this angle? Is it the same as how 'they' figure it? This is the only area where I can see a point for argument.
Brian
It's a standard astronomical calculation for the position of the sun and moon. Shouldn't be any problem with that.
I can send you the program if you like?
Roger
Not necessary. I'm just speaking up so others can understand what this is all about. Some may not know what a "sun-moon angle" is.
Brian
RE: Proposed test - comments wanted - Roger Hunter - 03-12-2015
(03-11-2015, 11:08 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote: I've dealt with a number of individuals who think quakes are related to the sun-moon angle, among them Amit Dave, Jim Berkland and EDG.
I propose a simple test of this idea.
I will determine the sun-moon angle for every mag 6+ quake in the NEIC catalog and sort them by 5 degree blocks from 0 to 180 degrees.
If there is such a relation, there should be more quakes at certain angles. 0, 90 and 180 are most commonly suggested.
If not, the idea is refuted.
Any comments?
Roger
Well this is interesting. I sorted all those quakes into 5 degree bins and counted the number per bin, added them all up and divided by 36 to get the expected average. Then I computed the standard deviation.
To my surprise, it was WAY too big, indicating that these were not random variations at all. But the highs did not represent any expected positions. The largest number was in the 70 degree bin. The next largest was the 85 degree bin and the third was the 150 degree bin. None of these would be expected under any "theory" I've seen proposed.
Any ideas out there?
Roger
RE: Proposed test - comments wanted - Skywise - 03-12-2015
(03-12-2015, 01:55 AM)Roger Hunter Wrote: To my surprise, it was WAY too big, indicating that these were not random variations at all. But the highs did not represent any expected positions. The largest number was in the 70 degree bin. The next largest was the 85 degree bin and the third was the 150 degree bin. None of these would be expected under any "theory" I've seen proposed.
Is it possible for you to make a graph and post it?
I would offer to help verify the computations, but I'm already concentrating on a programming project and don't want to lose my momentum. (egad, never realized ethernet communications was so involved, lots of subtleties, kudos to those folks who invented the internet back in the 60's and 70's)
Brian
RE: Proposed test - comments wanted - Roger Hunter - 03-12-2015
(03-12-2015, 02:16 AM)Skywise Wrote: Is it possible for you to make a graph and post it?
Sure.
Quote:I would offer to help verify the computations, but I'm already concentrating on a programming project and don't want to lose my momentum. (egad, never realized ethernet communications was so involved, lots of subtleties, kudos to those folks who invented the internet back in the 60's and 70's)
Thanks but not necessary. I'm sure of the programming, just surprised by the answer.
Roger
RE: Proposed test - comments wanted - Island Chris - 03-14-2015
Roger,
then graph it and post the graph, so we can see it visually.
Chris
RE: Proposed test - comments wanted - Roger Hunter - 03-15-2015
(03-14-2015, 11:10 AM)Island Chris Wrote: Roger,
then graph it and post the graph, so we can see it visually.
Chris
Ok, here it is (attached)
Roger
RE: Proposed test - comments wanted - Skywise - 03-15-2015
(03-15-2015, 12:25 AM)Roger Hunter Wrote: Ok, here it is (attached)
Test the null hypothesis. Try randomizing date/times of the quakes. Keep the random date/time within the same time span.
Brian